Good morning all,

It's a wet start to the weekend, and heavy rain is going to be affecting the ground at all tracks as the morning progresses. Warwick, which is my intended destination later today, now have a precautionary inspection at 1pm due to a patch of standing water, so please be aware of that.

I've looked at some of the big TV races, hoping to buuild on a good Chester Cup result yesterday!

3.10 Haydock – Swinton Hurdle

Normally I’d say you can narrow this down to a handful, but this looks ridiculously difficult and I find it very hard to rule many out. 

There are any number in here with the potential to do better again after good handicap wins last time – on that list are Irish raider Shanroe, who beat a big field at Fairyhouse without coming off the bridle, and despite a 19lb rise in the weights is probably still on a workable mark based on his Flat form, Aintree winner Rowland Ward (and Camprand, second to him at Aintree), Historic Heart, the improving Hooper and Copperless, yet to be asked for any effort when still cruising up and falling three out in Rowland Ward’s Aintree contest. 

There’s the unexposed Skelton runner Defining Battle, having his first start in a handicap, perfectly capable handicappers like Cormier and Scarlet Dragon…you can see the problem. The shortlist is a longlist. 

In the end I’ve settled on Shanroe, as he was just so impressive at Fairyhouse and the Irish have simply mopped up these handicaps with future Graded horses this year, and at a bigger price Ballinsker, made favourite to beat Milkwood at Ffos Las last October but unsurprisingly found him 4l too good (level weights). He lost little in defeat to The Shunter in the Greatwood on his next start, but his last two efforts have been moderate, including his run in the Betfair Hurdle. 

He looks well handicapped on 126 here, given Milkwood is now high 140s, and I get the feeling he’s been saved with this in mind. 

2.15 Lingfield – Oaks Trial

I’ve no great opinion on this either, to be perfectly honest, and the threat of morning rain, turning this into a real stamina test, means I’m going to side with Ocean Road, who not only ran well on soft ground on her debut at Nottingham last year (the winner readily went in again at Wetherby two weeks ago) before scoring on the all-weather here in December, but should stay well, being a half-sister to the very useful Wigmore Hall, a Canadian Grade 1 inner over 12f. Only question is how wound up she’ll be for her first run of the year, but she’s more interesting than a few. 

2.50 Lingfield – Derby Trial

Adayar looks the most likely winner, but he’s not the bet at the prices.. Proven on soft ground, having won nine wickets in a decent time on it at Nottingham last year, he ran a cracker at Sandown in their Classic Trial, doing by far and away the best of those held up well off the pace, which wasn’t the place to be. Beaten just ½l and stayed on all the way to the line. The fact he goes here rather than straight to Epsom after that suggests they want him to have a bit more experience under his belt, which is no bad thing, and he looks the one to beat. 

Back in the field that day was Recovery Run, who simply ran too bad to be true, and I’m happy enough to put a line through that. He looked very progressive at 2, finishing off with a solid second in the Group 3 Zetland Stakes at Newmarket. It isn't guaranteed he wants a trip this far but he shapes like he’ll stay, and given he too is proven with cut. He just looks too big a price, given he went off the same price as Adayar at Sandown. 

3.40 Ascot – 7f Victoria Cup

An Ascot Saturday card has to, by law, have a 7f handicap on it and has to have Raising Sand as one of the runners. Them’s the rules, I don’t make ‘em up. 

Raising Sand, it should be remembered, “won” his side of the race in the Hunt Cup last year, so you only need forgive his poor effort here last October (for which he’s been dropped a very welcome 3lb) to give him a chance. On the shortlist. 

Greenside isn’t drawn far away from him, and he’s a chance if he’s fit after his winter break. Seventh in this last year, he won in soft ground at Haydock on his next start and his form well all year, culminating in a third over a mile here in October. He’ll be held up, and the faster they go the better his chance late. 

Only the stone-hearted would begrudge the wonderful Ropey Guest one of these big handicaps this year, and after the unkindest cut of all over the winter, he could improve again. Don’t forget, he was a good fourth in the Jersey (soft) on his seasonal debut here last year, his best run of the season, so this could be the time to catch him. He’ll be a daft price, but could repay each-way faith with the extra places. 

Chiefofchiefs is quite interesting too, as he’s still unexposed at this trip, having only had the three tries at it. One of those was over this C&D in the Moet & Chandon last year, and he ran a very respectable fourth, doing a lot of good late work. The jury is still out as to whether he wants soft ground – there are a couple of good efforts on his dance card – but he’s going to get a Spencer waiting ride here, which means one of two things. Either a masterclass where he gets up in the shadow of the post, or you’ll need a new telly come 3.45, as you’ll have smashed yours as he hits traffic more times that you can shake a stick at. 

Today’s selection – Raising Sand (e/w 6 places) 3.40 Ascot

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Good luck with all your bets today,

David.