Hi all,

As the Cheltenham Festival fades into memory, it's time to turn our attention to the upcoming weekend's racing action. In today's main feature, I'll be providing a preview of Saturday's highly anticipated Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster.

The start of the 2024 Flat Turf season at Doncaster on Saturday always sparks a palpable sense of excitement for the forthcoming racing season. Over the next six weeks, plenty of Classic hopefuls will have their reputations either enhanced or tarnished.  

Indeed, while there's plenty of top jumps action to savour in the coming weeks with events like the Fairyhouse Easter Festival, the Aintree Grand National Festival, the Scottish Grand National, and the Punchestown Festival, for us flat racing fans, the excitement of a new season is incomparable.

Spring Double Anyone?

Once, there existed a celebrated tradition known as the ‘Spring Double'. This combination typically comprised the Lincoln Handicap, a highlight of the opening Saturday of the Flat season, and the Grand National. In bygone years, the ‘Spring Double' commanded significant attention from punters, bookmakers, and the racing media alike. However, in contemporary times, the term has faded into obscurity, with little mention or engagement in betting circles. It's regrettable, as the ‘Spring Double' once served as a source of excitement and generated positive publicity for the sport.

Like the now-forgotten ‘Spring Double', the Lincoln Handicap once enjoyed popularity as an ante-post betting race. However, in contemporary times, it has become just another Saturday handicap, with the ante-post interest in the race nearly vanishing. There was a period, well within my memory, when the Cheltenham Festival served merely as an appetizer to the thrilling racing that awaited the start of the Flat turf season.

Once I have decided on my Lincoln selections, I’m tempted to have a crack at the ‘Spring Double’.

Looking Ahead to the Weekend – Part 1

The new flat season kicks off at Doncaster on Saturday, featuring the highly anticipated Lincoln Handicap (3:35) as its main attraction. Supporting races include the £75,000 Spring Mile (2:25) and the Listed Cammidge Trophy (3:00). The Doncaster meeting begins with the Listed Doncaster Mile (1:20), followed shortly after by the Brocklesby Stakes (1:50), marking the start of 2-year-old racing for the season.

Meanwhile, Newbury concludes its jumps season with a two-day fixture starting on Friday. Saturday's Premier Racing fixture boasts a seven-race card, headlined by the £100,000 Goffs UK Spring Bumper (3:50) and a Grade 2 Listed mares-only handicap hurdle (3:15). ITV Racing cameras will be in attendance to cover the top races at Doncaster, Newbury, and one contest from Bangor.

Doncaster Lincoln Handicap

First run in 1853 over one mile four furlongs. It was reduced to today’s distance of a mile in 1865. A you can guess from the name the race wasn’t always run at Doncaster. The Lincoln Handicap, previously known as the Lincolnshire Handicap, was originally held at Lincoln Racecourse until that tracks demise in 1964.

In 1948, the race hosted the largest field in flat racing history, with a staggering 58 horses competing in the race. If you're interested, there's a brief YouTube video showcasing the start of the 1948 flat season and the running of the Lincolnshire Handicap.

Trends:

Looking at the renewals of the Lincoln Handicap since 2008 all 15 winners shared the following traits.

Just using those four trends would have eliminated 51% of the total runners in the race since 2008.

NB The runs in last 90 days figure doesn’t include horses that ran at Meydan prior to coming to Doncaster.  

Many words will be spoken about the draw on Doncaster’s straight mile, but it doesn’t seem to have that much significance to me with winners coming from across the track.

It’s worth noting on soft or heavy ground 50% of the winners were drawn in the first quarter segment of the draw. That said Secret Brief defied stall 22 to win in 2016 and Migration stall 12 last year.

Top performing trainers: Charlie Appleby – 2 wins from 4 runners +12.5pts, John Gosden – 2 wins from 8 runners +1.83, William Haggas – 2 winners from 10 runners, 4 placed and Richard Fahey – 2 winners from 35 runners +4, 8 placed.

Contenders:

Fifty-six were left in the race at Monday’s final confirmation stage. There’s been support for last year's runner-up Awaal and he’s the bookies ante post favourite at 4/1.  Next in the betting is the Karl Burke trained Liberty Lane. The latter went into my tracker as a Lincoln horse after his win over C&D in September.  

Last year’s winner Migration could bid to back up last year’s success in the race. He had 1 ¼ length in hand of Awaal last year and is 4lb worse off but a big field handicap is his type of race and he’s very effective in the mud.

Irish Lincolnshire winner Chazzesmee could try to pull off a unique double. He gets a 5lb penalty for Monday’s success, but he’d be well in if he was to line-up.

Thunder Ball concluded last season on a high note with a career-best victory at Goodwood on soft ground. His ability to perform well in large fields was evident when he finished 4th of 29 in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot. Keep an eye on him in these competitive mile handicaps throughout the season.

Johan, the winner of this race in 2022, demonstrated his aptitude after a long layoff by clinching victory in the Golden Mile Handicap at Goodwood last summer following a 293-day break. Another big performance could be forthcoming.

Other contenders to consider include Lattam, the winner of last year's Irish Lincolnshire who has now joined the Julie Camacho yard, and Navagio, previously trained in Ireland and now under the guidance of James Horton. Navagio goes on soft ground and his form line at 1m/1m 1f is 33211. A win by Navagio would kick start the Horton’s move back to Newmarket.

Lincoln Verdict:

As of now, I haven't delved deeply into the race, but I plan to have a couple of selections when I do. While it's often a prudent strategy to back progressive types or what's commonly referred to as the “Group Horse in a Handicap,” I'll be deviating from that approach with at least one of my selections for this year’s race.

Wednesday Preview

The day's best racing is at Haydock, featuring the Greyland 25th Anniversary Handicap Chase (3:50). It promises to be the standout race of the day. Most of the eight declared runners stand a chance if they bring their best form to the race. Looking at the pace maps we could be in for a slowly run race.

Rest of the Haydock card

3:50 – Greyland 25th Annivesary Handicap Chase (Class 3) – 3m 4 ½ f

O’Connell has been in good form of late, but needs to prove he stays 3m 4f.

Jubilee Express has improved on his last two starts over fences and saw out 3m 4f well enough when a length 2nd of 9 at Lingfield last month. A 5lb rise makes life tougher but he shouldn’t be far away.

Corkwell Legend looked to be going best of all when falling three out at Exeter (3m) on his last start over fences. Stamina for a marathon trip must be taken on trust, but he stays is handicapped to go close.

Atakan made it 2-4 over fences when winning last season’s Sussex National at Plumpton for his previous yard. Returned from a 420-day break for new trainer Jim Boyle and wasn’t subjected to hard race when 4^th of 7 back at that venue 23 days ago. If he’s retained most of his ability, he’s a contender.

Ali Star Bert comes into the race in great vein of form having won three of his last four starts. Looked in need of further when winning at Wetherby 20 days ago. The 8-year-old has been nudged up 3lb and is up a notch in class but looks the one to beat.

Verdict: I can let Jubilee Express win at 9/4 and Ali Star Bert looks the better value of the pair. I’m also expecting a bigger performance from Atakan.

4:25

Romeo Brown looks likely to get the run of the race out in front and drops in class. However, he’s been well out of form this season and may prefer better ground. Kilta took advantage of favourable opening mark to win on handicap debut at Southwell 16 days ago. Up 8lb but going the right way and should be suited by today’s longer trip. Glen Cannel ran like he needed last months belated seasonal reappearance at Carlisle. A dual novice hurdle winner last season, he needs to step up again from last time but maybe capable of doing so.

5:00

Ballydisco has been out of form both over fences and hurdles this season. However, he is 3lb below last season’s winning mark. Ballymagroarty Boy stays well and is consistent enough but doesn’t win very often. President Scottie looked booked for second place when let clear at the last at Ayr last month. A mark of 117 on handicap debut looks workable and he looks the likeliest winner. His biggest could be North Parade. The 9-year-old completed a Newcastle handicap hurdle at Newcastle two starts back and was a little unlucky in the run when a 5 length 3rd of 9 at Wetherby 20 days ago. He’s one to consider on his first start beyond an extended 2m 4f.

Wednesday Selection:

Kilta look solid but I have him at 3/1 so 7/4 makes no appeal from a value perspective. Plus, I think Glen Cannel could run a much better today and I also like the booking of Ben Jones. President Scottie is bit bigger than I expected in the concluding handicap hurdle. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Ballydisco returned to form and North Parade comes into the race in good form.

Haydock

4:25 – Glen Cannel.

Good luck with your Wednesday bets.

John