Good morning all, today I look at the 2022 Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle.

Hope you're all staying safe today at Storm Eunice hits. I'm supposed to be at Southwell tonight and am waiting on a 10am inspection. At present it's fairly calm here, but the winds are expected to pick up later on and it's very much in the balance.

The latest of my looks at the big four races at the Festival is on today's main piece, with a look at the Stayers Hurdle.

“Forgive me father, for I have sinned.” So goes the plea of so many over the years that have transgressed and seek forgiveness. Don’t worry, the Punt hasn’t gone all spiritual, but when you’re looking at the Stayers Hurdle, there’s a fair few of these that need to visit the confessional booth.

One at a time, the majority of the main contenders have blotted their copybooks and this looks one of the most open Stayers Hurdles I can remember. We’ve had the odd big-priced winner of this over the years, and it would be no surprise if there was to be another.

Let’s start with the one that does look reasonably solid, last year’s winner Flooring Porter. Still just about in front when falling at Navan on his reappearance when tipping up two out, he did nothing wrong when second to Klassical Dream in the Christmas Hurdle, staying on well all the way to the line behind the all-the-way winner. Given he’s totally proven at Cheltenham, he’s the one it’s hard to knock, especially now we know he doesn’t need to lead. If Klassical Dream gets the jump on him at the start again come March, it’s less of a concern.

Hard what to know to make of Klassical Dream’s Gowran reversal last time out. He faced a simple task on the face of it but when asked for his final effort found very little. It’s worth remembering he hasn’t stood much racing over the years and that’s another worry. Either way, a bit to prove now, for all that Willie has them primed for the day.

Thyme Hill has found his level but it’s a very high level and could be good enough if others misfire. Second to Champ in the Long Walk, he has plenty of form that ties him in closely with Paisley Park over the past couple of years, and has less questions about him than a few. Trainer record isn’t great at the Festival, though, with 5-137 hardly having you reaching for your wallet.

I’m not keen on Champ. Yes, he won the RSA here but that run stands out like a beacon amongst his other Cheltenham efforts and found a resurgent Paisley Park too good for him in the Cleeve last time, a race he ought to have won. Neither was I mad keen on the way he hung after the last, and I’m getting the impression he’s got his own ideas about the game.

Is Paisley Park back? He’s now just 8-1 to win his crown back after that Cleeve win, yet for 90% of the race it looked most unlikely. Indeed, slow starts are becoming the norm and with both Klassical Dream and Flooring Porter both itching to break the tape, he could find himself with 20l to make up in no time. If you fancy him, surely he’s one to back on the day – if he fails to leave the starting gate, the justice refund will save you a stake.

Royal Kahala is admirable, improving and will stay but needs it hock deep. If the weather looks like turning bad in the run-up to the race, she’s the one with the potential to go off a lot shorter than she is now, especially getting her 7lb mares allowance.

It’s easy to forget Sporting John is a Grade 1 winner, having taken the Scilly Isles back in the day, and like Champ has refound some form reverting to hurdles this year. It’s only handicaps he’s been winning though, and his short-priced defeat when the old boy Kansas City Chief gave them all a running lesson here in December shows he’s not bombproof, but in an open year, how can you discount him?

Sire Du Berlais has been beaten by too many in the field to be confident about but his Cheltenham Festival record can barely be faulted. That’s always a good indicator if you’ve no other angle to go with, and only a fool would write him off. He has qualified for the Pertemps as well, but would surely have too high a mark for that, and this looks a better option.

Is there a rag in there that could shock us? Lisnagar Oscar did it back in 2020 and was happily bowling along in the race last year when coming down, and it was at least a step back in the right direction when third in the Cleeve. However, as an ante-post bet, he makes no appeal, given you’ll get a similar price and extra places on the day.

Here’s the bottom line with the Stayers Hurdle – having a bet now looks like madness, given the wide open nature of the race and I can’t see anything – Royal Kahala apart, watch the weather – shortening up a lot between now and the day. I think Flooring Porter is the one to be with, but I’m not telling you anything the market isn’t. Hold fire, and let’s see who turns up on the day.

I don't like a lot today but with three front-runners in the race, if Elvis Mail can't get close in the 2.00 Kelso then there's not much hope. A big engine, but with jumping issues (didn't take to fences at all), he found some form to finish second here at Kelso last time, and this looks a suitable race for him to get back on the scoresheet. He can track the pace and pounce late.

Goiod luck with all your bets today,

David.

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