Tag Archives: 13th

Quality Costs

There are Mud Maestro selections today and I've included those below.

First off I want to talk about a tipping service that has quite astounded me with it's results so far this month.

Andy Bell is a well respected and renowned tipster, but his late call service is proving to be something special.

His selections in January have been…

5th January – Upton Mead – 4 points staked – Won 9/4 + 9.00
7th January – The Jugopolist – 4 points – Won 11/4 + 11.00
12th Jabuary – Al's Memory (ew) – 4 points – Placed 10/1 + 3.6
13th January – The Blue Dog – 5 points – Won 7/4 + 8.75
13th January – Captain Morley – 6 points – Won 6/4 + 9
18th January – Taquin Du Seuil – 8 points – Won 10/11 + 7.28
19th January – Hit The Headlines – 2 points – Lose 2/1 -2

That's 37 points staked and 46.63 points profit, so 126% return on investment and even at modest £10 per point stakes a £466 profit.

December was 23 points up and November, when the service started, was up 48 points.

This service is not cheap, but looks worth a try – Late Call Service

Mud Maestro

13:10:00 Leicester 5 Saffron Wells (IRE) – 12/1 Sky Bet
15:55:00 Leicester 4 Brass Monkey (IRE) – 8/1 Bet 365
15:55:00 Leicester 5 Detour Ahead – 6/1 Bet Victor

Today's Selection

13:55:00 Wetherby Real Milan – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365, Paddy Power, Bet Victor, Sky Bet, Boylesport

Pro Football Gamblers – Outrights

Before we get into today's article from Pro Football Gambler Goran Trpevski I just wanted to ket you know that there are still places with The Form Man service and more excitingly they made 37 points yesterday, that's all at level stakes.

Click Here to secure a place

Goran Trpevski is a former professional footballer who has his own well established tipping service. It is again in profit this season.

Goran's service offers traditional pre kick off bets and also the opportunity to follow along in play making the same bets that Goran makes.

Goran is offering a heavily discounted trial of his full service for Daily Punt readers and you can find details of that here.

With my service the majority of my bets are around the 2.0 (evens mark) which means we have a healthy strike rate and no long losing runs.

I also like to invest a lot of money on outright bets such as seasonal outcomes as I look on it as free money if you have an eye to spot the opportunity. Earlier this season I saw a great example and told my members.

The bet was Juventus to win Serie A each way and we invested 3 units on each (1/3 odds top 2) so 6 in total at 2.50 (6/4).

Why did we go each way? Well if we win we win on the equivalent of a 2.00 price (6 points profit) and if Juventus finish second we stand to lose just 25% of our stake. If they finish third we lose our entire stake but in my opinion that was not going to happen.

Opening prices on Juve were 2.62 for the title in Italy but there was a lot going on pre-season and the prices started to fall. It’s a fact that the squad of players at Juve got better by some 15-20% and their rivals got worse.

How? This was how I described it to my members…

Lucio, Asamoah. Giovinco and Isla were signed. Out of these four Isla is World class in his position. Mind you they already had good players in his position.

Giovinco will fight with Gacherini for a starting place and sometimes they will play Vucinic in that position. Vucinic is one of Conte’s untouchables. You see Juve have tons of players and even though Lucio is a very good defender who will he take out from that backline?

What’s even funnier is that the names that are mentioned in the papers about who else they want to sign. Juve’s situation is clear. They will be a very serious side and not just by Italian standards.

What of the competition. Well Inter and Moratti will save money and the team they will put out to take on the Calcio this season will be close to a joke. They will have a tough and long season and if Inter win the league it will because Juve lost it themselves. Their position will be third or fourth and Napoli is a more serious side then Inter this season actually.

AC Milan? When I said some years ago that Milan are a spent force lacking in funds people did not want to listen. Then all the transfers out started such as Shevcenko and Kaka and now the latest Silva and Ibrahimovic.

Milan without these two players are how much worse? 40%? Well it’s up for debate. Milan will take 1-2 players but for them to challenge this Juve side, well it will take a lot for that to happen.

Juve’s prices today can’t be above 2.10. No way. In reality they have no rivals once Ibrahimovic signs for PSG. Absolute worst case is that they come second and for us that means we lose 1.5 units out of a total of 6 invested, which in a situation like this is nothing. Invest now as this is a super play at these prices.

So that was what I thought and the value was too good to miss. Take a look now at the prices and we are only 12 games into the season. Juve are top 4 points ahead of Inter and 5 ahead of Napoli. AC Milan are in 13th place and 17 points behind. The best price you can get at the moment on Juve to win the title is 1.4.

I could see what was going to happen in the league early enough to get the good prices and great value.

Maybe some people don’t want to tie up so much money long term but the value was massive and I could not turn it down.

When some punters look for value they want an 8/1 chance that is priced up at 16/1. You won’t get bets like that with my service but you will have access to amazing value with bets like:-

Chelsea to win the league without the 2 Manchester clubs at 2.2 and now you can’t get bigger than 1.29.

PSV to win the Eredivisie at 4.0 and we went in again each way at 3.25 units. The best price now is 1.73.

Atletico Madrid to finish in the top 4 in Spain we took at 1.83. Best price now is 1.05.

The start of the season can be an excellent time for outrights but I keep looking for value throughout the season and if I see some more gems our members will be getting them.


Goran has a bet tonight in the Valencia Vs Bayern Munich game.

The bet is Bayern Munich to win (draw no bet), this was given out yesterday when the price was 1.63, the price is now 1.599 with Pinnacle.

With a draw no bet, bet if the game ends in a draw you will get your money back.

Here's Goran's assessment of the match…

Before the season I warned you guys that with Valencia we had no guarantees this season.

Yes they can finish third again, but they can also finish something like 8th.

Why? Because Emery left and with Emery alot of things left as well.

In came Pellegrino and we knew nothing about him. Well as a player we knew,but as a coach nothing at all.

Being as assistant coach doesn’t count of course as setting up cones and taking notes is not the same as being in charge.

Valencia so far? Pretty much where I expected them to be, win some suffer some.

Mestalla is a very tough place to manage (Benitez won two league titles and still was not liked) Emery left after coming third twice and still was not liked.

First game in Bayern and it was total domination for the Bavarians.

Score 2-1 is a big lie as it was closer to 4-0 then 2-1 that I can tell you.

Valencia did not come to play and that’s a negative.

This game at the Mestalla can be a decider about who wins this group. Coming second and you are in for a tougher draw later on. One thing getting Celtic another thing getting Barca.

Bayern won’t lose in Spain. They will dictate the tempo of the game, they will control the match and they should not lose in this one.

Tactics match up and we see two teams playing in a similiar way. Both use one central striker (Mandjukic/Pizzaro v Soldado) Both use the wings alot when attacking but with different characteristics.

Valencia use a left footer on the left (Guardado) and right foot on the right (Fegholi). While Bayern have #wrong foot# on the wings most of the time Ribery left and Robben (out though and replaced by Shakiri in this game) on the right.

Bayern should not lose this game and I see them winning in the end.

Today's Racing Selection

Folkestone 12.40 Floral Spinner – win bet

Profit from the Premier League

Premier LeaguePremier League Corners

I read an email last Friday from those clever boys at the Secret Betting Club.

What caught my eye was some interesting stats on premier league corners.

And particularly the value that can be found with the bookies for Liverpool corners.

Apparently if there was a Premier League based on corners then it would look like this…

Rank Team Played Corners Corner
Markets Won
Markets Lost
Markets Drawn
1st Liverpool 20 176 17 3 0
2nd Arsenal 20 163 17 3 0
3rd Spurs 20 145 14 6 0
4th Man Utd 20 142 11 6 3
5th Man City 20 121 11 9 0

* This data was current as of Friday 13th January 2012

Peter Ling (Editor at SBC) gave example winning bets where he had managed to bet at 8/5 , 11/10 and 6/5 on Liverpool winning the most corners at various times this season.

There's two lessons to take from this with regards to Premier League betting.

The first is that the bookmakers spend a great deal of time pricing up the win markets in the Premier League.

But the side markets, and there are a lot of them, are priced by using formulas that calculate the side market price based on the win market.

The upshot of this pricing method is that the bookmakers leave a lot of value bets available to shrewd punters.

The second is that we should have a look at the corner markets, including the handicaps, this weekend

The Secret Betting Club has a guide to finding these kinds of bets along with a number of other football betting strategies.

Today's Selection

Catterick 2.10 War Party – Win Bet


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