Tag Archives: 2pts

Football and Racing Tips

I had a bet last night for today's Cheltenham meeting that demonstrates how far you can beat the market by following tipsters who do their own race assessments rather than waiting for markets to form and letting those markets influence their decisions.

At 5pm yesterday the Racing consultants sent their members a note telling them to get on a horse that was available at 8/1 and that on their assessment should be much shorter.

I had my little tenner on with Bet 365 and now the horse is 5/1 with Bet 365 and best priced 11/2.

This horse might lose, but to me it will be remembered as a good bet whether it wins or loses because it is my strong opinion that you should judge your bets by how much you beat starting price not by whether they win or lose.

This might sound crazy to some readers. But others will know that if you keep beating starting price by big margins that the profits will take care of themselves.

I'm going to give you the bet and the full assessment in a minute, but first I'd like to recommend that whether it wins or loses that if you are serious about winning that you join the Racing Consultants service.

These guys send out bets like this one on a regular basis and they beat the market.


By the way they sent another one at 5.20, but I'm not allowed to give that one, but if you join them you can get immediate access.

Here's the race assessment and bet…


“Little Jon impressed me enough as a hurdler last year despite his build and background suggesting he’d be much better over fences, and he proved the point at the first time of asking at Newton Abbot in October, giving weight and a beating to the Paul Nicholls-trained Solar Impulse.

That preceded a trio of runs in higher company here, and the bottom line is that the long-striding son of Pasternak hasn’t beaten another rival.

That said, he actually ran a cracker when a close third over 2m in November, and has crashed out when leading on his next two starts.

Despite those aberrations, he appeals as a pretty sound jumper, if inclined to take the occasional fence (or indeed wing) on.

The upside of his failures is that he’s not revealed the full extent of his ability, and therefore the handicapper hasn’t been as severe as he might have been, accepting that an opening mark of 140 is no gimme.

Main opposition comes primarily in the shape of Easter Day for Paul Nicholls, and he can’t be ruled out of calculations, for all his odds will be skinny enough.

More interesting at the forecast prices is Annacotty, who was second in the novice handicap on this card last year. He was another who couldn’t cope with the demands of the Hennessy first time out, but he’s reportedly been perked up by a spell hunting, and also has cheekpieces fitted, so should have no excuses.

He was a Grade 1 winner last year, and that fact shouldn’t be overlooked.

2.25 Chel – 2pts win Little Jon @ 8/1 (Bet365)”

As mentioned above current best price is 11/2 with Skybet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power

Football Perm

We had a win last week with The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Free Trial Here)
and this week I've gone with their home wins perm…

Top Rated ‘Best 6 Homes'
(Perm any 5 from 6 plus all 6 = 7 bets)
The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 6 Homes' are available with…


Drifters – Good or Bad

Today's pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets


7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that's improved or refound it's form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan's evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that's worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he's clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn't short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You'll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn't already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20's then 25's would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I've used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

William Hill Lincoln Selection

After our day off yesterday we have a bumper Saturday message, including instructions from Connor Gallagher on how to analyse a race from a Trends perspective and a selection for this afternoons William Hill Lincoln.

First up a reminder to enter your selections in the free Sky Super 6 competition which has a rollover jackpot of £200,000 this week – click here.

Football Selections

Next up we have a footy perm from the guys at The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Free Trial) who gave us a small return last week.

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)


This pays £60 for £1 stakes if they all win.

How to use Trends Analysis to find winners by Connor Gallagher

One of the most common questions I’m asked by visitors to my Trends Betting website is “how can I use trends analysis to find more winners?” In today’s article I’ll be answering some of your questions about horse racing trends and how they can be utilised in the upcoming flat season.

Firstly, history dictates that the same type of horse wins certain races year in, year out. They all follow trends and statistics set by horses that have won the race in previous seasons. A trend analyst’s job is to research these trends thoroughly each year and highlight the horses running today that most closely match the profiles of previous winners. So, let’s get started on today’s Lincoln…

How to research a race for trends analysis

The first step is to find out the most recent winners of the race we are looking at. It’s up to you how far back you choose to go, but personally I would suggest around 10 – 15 years depending on the nature of the race. Any less and your data is more likely to be coincidental and any more than that and you risk analysing outdated statistics that expire as things change over the years.

Of course, the first place to start is the Racing Post. All you have to do is scroll to the bottom of the race card and click on “past winners”. However, this information is only available to paid members and will only display data from the last 10 years. So what do you do if you’re not a member at RacingPost.com?

Well, because I focus mainly on the top-class races, there will invariably be an entry on Wikipedia. So, using today’s Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster as an example, I begin by typing the following into Google…

“Lincoln Handicap Doncaster wiki”

The search results will then display a link to Wikipedia with the history of the Lincoln Handicap, including a list of previous winners. This will work for almost every major race on the British horse racing calendar.

Creating a trends spreadsheet

Next we want to research each of the previous winners. By far the easiest way to do this is by using an Excel spreadsheet. Start by listing the name of each horse and the year it won across the top of your spreadsheet. Down the left-hand side of your spreadsheet list all the various statistics that you wish to analyse.

• Age
• Weight
• Official rating
• Trainer
• Breeding
• Racing Post rating
• Stall draw
• Best form
• Best winning form
• Highest class raced at
• Course and distance last time out
• Position last time out
• Did horse record highest career RPR last time out?
• Total races won
• Number of career runs
• Number of seasonal runs
• Days since last ran
• Recent form (last 4-6 runs)
• Win strike-rate %
• Winning form in big fields? (if applicable)

The list really is endless. And now comes the time consuming part. You have to manually find all the relevant information for every horse and record it in your spreadsheet. I use the Racing Post to find my data but you may prefer to use Sportinglife.com.

Identifying trends

When you have finished you will have an in-depth spreadsheet detailing a wealth of form and statistics about the most recent winners of your chosen race. The next step involves sieving through this information to identify the most significant trends.

This is where many people will have their own opinions about what is important and what is not and is where the benefit of many years’ experience really counts. That said, there is no right or wrong way to identify trends, just make sure that the majority of all previous winners in your sample comply with the stat in question.

Personally I prefer to assign a points rating system to each trend to order them in order of strength. This way I can identify at-a-glance which horses running today tick the most important boxes. Obviously the more often you do this the easier you will find it and after a while you will find that certain trends really stand out.

Here are the main trends I have unearthed for today’s Lincoln Handicap…

Today’s Lincoln Handicap trends

• All 14 winners had won 2 or more races (3pts)
• All 14 winners had never ran over jumps (3pts)
• 13 of the last 14 winners had won at class 3+ level (3pts)
• 13 of the last 14 winner had 1 or less run since November (3pts)
• 13 of the last 14 winners had won at 1m+ (2pts)
• 13 of the last 14 winners were aged 4 – 6 (2pts)
• 12 of the last 14 winners had won 1 of last 4 runs (1pt)
• All of the last 10 winners had won a maximum of 3 handicaps (3pts)

Finding the winner

By researching the strongest trends from the last 10 – 15 years we can build a typical winner’s profile and identify a shortlist of horses running today that most closely match this profile.

This method is successful because trends analysis goes beyond the most obvious form figures which most punters use to make their daily selections. It can also help us to pinpoint horses at bigger prices that may have been underestimated by the bookies. And trends analysis isn’t just necessarily ideal for finding winners. The stats can also be used to identify false favourites that are worth opposing on the betting exchanges!

At this point you may be thinking to yourself that this seems like an awful lot of effort to rate a race. So is there a way to get reliable and up-to-date trends, statistics and selections for all the big races without the need for such intensive research and analysis? Yes!

I run a service called Trends Betting which has proved very profitable since launch in November 2012. In fact, members have made 62 points profit (98% ROI) to SP including recent winners at 4/1, 9/2, 5/1, 7/1, 10/1 and 50/1…

Trends Betting costs only £57 a year and this price will never go up as long as you stay with the service. This works out at only 16 pence a day!

So that includes all the trends, statistics and selections for up to 200 major races including the Cheltenham Festival, Grand National, 1000 & 2000 Guineas, Epsom Derby, Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood and many more…

There are only 50 places available so if my Trends Betting service sounds like something you’d be interested in, I’d really encourage you to sign-up today.

Click Here to Join Trends Betting.

Today's Selection (which is a good fit for Connor's trends above)

Doncaster 3.05 Lahaag – each way bet – 10/1 Will Hill

Free Tips + Win a Day at Cheltenham with Betting Money

Before I get on to today's tips for racing and football I want to just tell you about a christmas competition being run by Betfan.

This is a free draw and one lucky person will win a day out at the Cheltenham Festival on Gold Cup day including cash to bet with.

There's also a whole load of other prizes and discounts and freebies.

Click Here to enter, you gotta be in it to win it!

Today's Football Selections courtesy of Football Bets (Get the rest of today's tips for £1, Click Here)

QPR v Aston Villa (3:00pm)
QPR To Win at 11/10 (2.1) PaddyPower 21/20 (2.05) Coral WilliamHill

Today's Racing Selections courtesy of Matt Lindner

Daily Punt readers can get all of Matt's cards for December at less than half price (just £10). To get this offer email matt-racing@live.co.uk requesting the Daily Punt offer.


12.15 Rey narcardo 2pts
12.50 Call me a star 3pts
1.25 Rollig aces 3pts
2.00 Big Bucks 5pts
2.35 Salubrious 2pts and Arduli 2pts
3.10 Bobs worth 2pts
3.40 Gus macrae 3pts

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