Today's pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.
This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.
Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets
7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)
7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)
2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)
2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.
The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.
An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that's improved or refound it's form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan's evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that's worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he's clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn't short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.
You'll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.
By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!
So the question is, if you hadn't already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20's then 25's would you have bet it?
And would you still have your full stake on it?
Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.
So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.
Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!
My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.
As I've used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk
4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power