Can you make money backing favourites?
Most people tell you that there is no value in backing favourites and you should stay clear of them and look for those “outsiders” that come in now and then, at a really good value.
It sounds plausible except almost 80% of all winners come from the top 3 or 4 in the betting and so although it’s not rare to see an outsider come in at great value…
…It’s not easy finding and identifying them.
Backing Favourites for a Living
If you have read any of my articles then you are probably aware that I tend to go on about strike rate and average winning odds a lot.
There is good reason for this…
…They are important…very important.
At the end of the day all that matters is that these two figures stack up and make you a profit.
If you go for the lower strike rate range then you will need higher odds to make money.
Where a higher strike rate means you need lower odds to make money.
So it doesn’t matter if you are on favourites or outsiders the figures still have to add up.
People love going on about finding value and if you like being a detective then it is really good fun.
But value bets winning are rare and so even if you get good at spotting them your strike rate is still going to be low, meaning you will get a lot of losers before finding a winner.
Looking for value bets also needs a big bank roll and you need to know when to take advantage of the odds available.
I follow a number of systems like this and you soon find out that you have to go through losing runs of 20, 30 or even 50, to make these systems work.
Not many people are prepared to do this and not many people have the bank to support it.
I am not saying you shouldn’t have high price value strategies…
…I am just saying it probably doesn’t want to be your only strategy.
But we have already talked about there being no profit in favourites so what else can we do?
Well let’s discuss that for a moment.
Let us say that we came up with a system that uses favourites and has an average strike rate of 50%.
That means “on average” we win one bet and we lose one bet.
So every time we lose…we lose 1 point which means every time we win we need to do better than 1 pt to make money.
In fact if we take Betfair prices where we can generally do a little better then we need an average winning price of 1.05, just to break even.
So let’s say for arguments sake we get on average a winning price 1.26 (2.26).
1.26 * 5% = 0.06 = 1.20 profit
So if we had 100 selections in a month and won on 50 of them it would look like this…
50 * 1.20 = 60 – 50 = 10 points.
So as you can see we don’t have to have a very high “average winning odds” to make a decent amount of points every month.
The thing is to test…it’s no good saying you cannot make money on favourites unless you try some strategies over 2 or 3 months. If you pick well then even if you don’t get the prices you need. You are unlikely to lose as much as you would following a low strike rate high value system with long losing runs.