I recently heard about this housewife gambler who is making good steady long term gains from football betting. Specifically betting on the over 2.5 goals market.
So I made contact with Louise and she agreed to write an article for us on why she bets in the over 2.5 goals market and why you should to.
Why You Should Consider Betting On Goals
Betting on the number of goals in a game allows you to win money without having to predict who will actually win the match. Typically that means betting over or under 2.5 goals at the outset of most games.
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From a strategy point of view it is a style of betting that has both pros and cons, and a bet that will split the crowd amongst professional punters.
Some pros moan that it is hard enough predicting where the goals are likely to come from without worrying about how many goals you’ll see.
For people like me, looking at the number of goals produced per match is a much more reliable – and profitable – strategy than predicting who will score them.
I am a woman, clearly. I am a working mother of two and a maths graduate.
I can’t profess to be a football expert but what I do have though, is something that many so-called experts don’t have – a genuinely mathematical mind, and a degree to prove it.
My profitable betting, which I now share with my subscribers, takes advantage of the maths-based match analysis methods I have developed for use in the football goals betting markets – specifically Over 2.5 match goals.
What I like about this market is that, not only are goals ‘good’ from a predictive point of view but also that the bookmaker’s overround is less crippling than it is in other markets such as say 1X2, HT-FT or an antepost market like say the winner of The Grand National or The Champions League.
The overround is a very important concept in betting. It ensures bookies make a profit regardless of the outcome of an event and is the foundation of a bookie’s business. The concept bookmakers use to do this is simple, they offer all bettors lower odds than those they believe an outcome is truly worth. The overround is expressed as a percentage, with a 100% book representing a market where the bookmaker has no margin whatsoever. The higher the overround percentage is then the bigger profit is for the bookmakers. If the percentage goes below 100% then the bookmaker stands to lose money.
For example, if the over-round is 120% the bookmaker will expect to pay out £100 for every £120 pounds they take in, yielding them an expected profit of 20/120 = 16.7%.
With fixed odds for three possible outcomes in a football match bet – the home win, draw, and away win – a typical overround is between 107% to 112%. Indeed some Internet firms can go as high as 118% for games in obscure football leagues where they fear that individual punters can carry a far greater edge than their hard-pressed compilers.
As a rule of thumb, the greater the number of possible result permutations within a sporting event (or within one of its constituent parts, such as a scoreline), then the greater the bookmaker's overround will be.
A correct score bet in football can have as many as 24 possible options on which to bet. A typical overround for this type of bet may be anything from 130%-160%, depending on the bookmaker. You’d probably find something similar in a competitive big field horse race such as The Grand National.
In contrast to correct score betting, total goals betting in football, where there are only two possible outcomes (over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals), attracts overrounds that are commonly less than 110% and sometimes as low as 102% for a Premiership game, say, where the bookies are actively looking to attract a high volume of business.
The name of the game in betting is to minimise the bookmakers’ advantage at all times while playing up the impact of the things that are in your favour whether that’s stats, a value model like mine, or local knowledge about teams and players that can impact on a result.
With that in mind betting opportunities with just two potential outcomes are always worth looking at as both the strike rate and potential returns can be excellent for those with a demonstrable edge.
If you can get your head around betting on goals then the over 2.5 goals market is absolutely one of the best betting opportunities that currently exists.
Louise' Soccer Tips service has a number of selections for this weekends footy action and I have included one for you here…
League – England Premier
Kick Off Time – Saturday 1st November 12:45
Teams & Selection – Newcastle v Liverpool OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.78 Betvictor Pinnacle – 1.76 Marathonbet 188Bet – 1.73 Bet365 Sbobet Boylesports
Stake – 1.5pts
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the true odds price to be around 1.60
To join Soccer Tips or to find out more about Louise and her service go to www.soccer-tip.co.uk
2.40 Stratford Summer Storm – win bet – 13/8 Boylesports