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Hutching Calculator – Hutching Profits

Following from yesterdays introduction to Dutching, today I want to tell you about Hutching and the Oddschecker Hutching calculator.

The Hutching calculator can be used like the Dutching calculator but instead of taking an equal profit whichever of your selections win. You can instead bias your bet towards a particular outcome.

So you could take all your profit from what you consider to be the most likely outcome and break even on other selected outcomes.

So you are hedging your bet, you have a bet, you expect it to win, but you want to cover some other outcomes so you hedge, hence the hutching calculator.

As an example Chelsea are 1.19 to beat West Ham tonight, so they are expected to win. If we think that West Ham are unlikely to score and Chelsea will win we could frame a bet using the hutching calculator.

If we decide to bet the correct scores of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 & 4-0 which are priced up at 9.6, 7.2, 8.2, 11.5 respectively.

By adjusting our stakes we can pretty much break even on 1-0, 3-0 & 4-0 and take a profit of £38.60 on 2-0, for a total stake of £10.

If we've judged things correctly then that return compares favourably with the £1.90 profit from a straight win bet.

The image below shows the calculator and the stakes required.

The trouble with this hutching calculator is that you have to manually play around with the stakes to get your desired result.

And if all your bets were in the same market, then it's probably just as easy to do this directly into Betfair. But in this case our bets are spread across 2 markets.

Nevertheless this is a a useful way to frame bets to get better value and to bias bets towards what you consider to be the most likely outcomes.

Don't follow the crowd and just bet what is offered to you, hutch your way to profit.

Hutching Calculator Chelsea West Ham

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

I've been promising for a while now that I will teach some winning greyhound strategies so today I'm going to explain how the form is recorded for the dogs. I'll then go on to share a strategy that I have used for years whenever I bet the dogs.

This is going to run over a number of days and I might spread it out a bit so as to not bore those readers not interested in the dogs, but we'll see how it goes.

So below you will see a screenshot of some greyhound racing form and below that a list of what the various items mean.

Greyhound racing form

Greyhound racing form – Click to Enlarge

[1] Starting with the easy, this is the trap that the dog will run from

[2] The dogs name & (W) indicates that this dog is a wide runner and consequently it will be allocated one of the outside traps each time it runs. You may also see (M) which indicates a middle runner and this dog will be allocated a middle trap.

[3] The best recent (Calculated) time that the greyhound has achieved along with details of the grade and the date. In this case the best time came in a trial, a trial is a qualifying race which helps the racing manager to know how to grade the dog IE what is it's ability what race should he put it in. Trials will usually have less than 6 runners, 3 in this case, and there is no betting on trials.

[4] The name of the trainer.

[5] This is the Racing Post rating for the dog. It is time based and personally I don’t pay much attention to it.

[6] A description of the animal in this case a F b which is a fawn bitch (female) a male will be indicated with a d for dog. This is followed by the name of the dogs sire (father), dam (mother) and the date whelped (Date of Birth).

[7] Date last in season. Bitches only!

[8] This is the Racing Post's tipsters comment, often vague and and can sway your judgement.

Now we get to the past form for the dog in question. Each line represents one race with the top line being the most recent.

[9] The date of the race.

[10] The track where the race was run.

[11] The distance of the race in metres.

[12] The trap number that the dog ran from on that occasion.

[13] The sectional or split time. This is the time from the traps to the winning line the first time the dog passes the line. This is useful to hep you understand the pace of the dog and whether it is likely to lead early.

[14] Position in race at the start (IE out of the traps), quarter (In a 4 bend race this will be between the 1st & 2nd bends), half and three quarter stages.

[15] Finishing position.

[16] The distance beaten by or if the winner the distance won by.

[17] The name of the winner or the second if this dog was the winner.

[18] The Racing Manager's in running comments for that run

[19] The time that the winner took to complete the race.

[20] The allowance made for the going. N = normal otherwise plus or minus in hundredths of a second EG – 40 means that the time was adjusted down by 40 hundredths of a second.

[21] The starting price of the dog.

[22] The grade of the race.

[23] The calculated time for this dog. This will be calculated from the distance the dog finished behind the winner and adjusted for the going allowance.

Now that we understand the information (form) that we have available next time we can look at how we can use that information.

Now we know how to read the card check out these posts that deal with finding a winner.

Who is the fastest to the first bend

Greyhound racing videos 

Baulking

Is it fast enough

Image courtesy of Saris0000 under Creative Commons 2.0

The Shortlist Report

I'm still playing around with all the features and reports over at Geegeez.

And what I've found out is that if you just register with Geegeez for free that you get access to a different feature each day, so you can try out the various features at no cost.

On a Tuesday it's the shortlist.

The Shortlist is a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report that day.

Currently, it covers win stats only, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

Here's an example:

GeeGeez Shortlist

Click to Enlarge

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate)
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate)
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate)
‘-‘ means there is no available data for that factor.

Here's how you can get today's shortlist for free.

Go to www.geegeez.co.uk

On the right of the page is a log on box, and just under that is a register link, click that, and register.

Once you're registered you'll be redirected to your profile page and you'll be logged in.

Next click Race Cards from the top menu.

You'll then have access to all of today's race cards, which frankly are easier and faster to use than the Racing Post ones and you'll also see the Report Selector box just above the race cards.

Pick The Shortlist from the report selector and you can see what horses made the shortlist today and why they made it. Simples!

Today's Selection

Fontwell 2.10 Theatrical Star – win bet – 15/8 Paddy Power

 

 

Racing Post Alternative

The boss has just set us all up with access to the Geegeez racecards and so today I'm having a play with them.

As well as all the data and comments that you find on the Racing Post site there are also a host of other features that help to make sense of a race.

Including what the Geegeez guys call Instant Expert.

Instant Expert gives a colour coded indicator of which horses are suited to today's conditions and help you to instantly see who the likely contenders in a race are.

So today, my first stop was The Shortlist which is another Geegeez feature that lists the horses with a mostly green profile in the Instant Expert.

The second horse listed on the shortlist was Albonny in the 6.55 at Kempton, I skipped the first because it was an odds on favourite (Clondaw Court).

So The Shortlist told me that Albonny had a mostly green profile so I then skipped off to look at the 6.55 for a closer look.

And what I've found is a horse that prefers the All Weather to turf and has won 3 of his 5 starts at Kempton.

Here's the Instant Expert for this race…

Geegeez Instant Expert

Click to Enlarge

The other useful feature is that when you look at the full form for a horse, you can filter it for certain types of races. So I can check a box and then only see the All Weather runs.

Here are those All Weather runs, the last three were all wins…

Geegeez Form

 

Anyway I'm going to have a small bet on Albonny and then I'm off to play again with the Geegeez Racecards.

You can check them out here http://www.geegeez.co.uk/race-cards

Today's Selection

Kempton 6.55 Albonny – 11/2 Bet 365

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