Tag Archives: aligncenter

The Shortlist Report

I'm still playing around with all the features and reports over at Geegeez.

And what I've found out is that if you just register with Geegeez for free that you get access to a different feature each day, so you can try out the various features at no cost.

On a Tuesday it's the shortlist.

The Shortlist is a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report that day.

Currently, it covers win stats only, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

Here's an example:

GeeGeez Shortlist

Click to Enlarge

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate)
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate)
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate)
‘-‘ means there is no available data for that factor.

Here's how you can get today's shortlist for free.

Go to www.geegeez.co.uk

On the right of the page is a log on box, and just under that is a register link, click that, and register.

Once you're registered you'll be redirected to your profile page and you'll be logged in.

Next click Race Cards from the top menu.

You'll then have access to all of today's race cards, which frankly are easier and faster to use than the Racing Post ones and you'll also see the Report Selector box just above the race cards.

Pick The Shortlist from the report selector and you can see what horses made the shortlist today and why they made it. Simples!

Today's Selection

Fontwell 2.10 Theatrical Star – win bet – 15/8 Paddy Power

 

 

Please follow and like us:

Racing Post Alternative

The boss has just set us all up with access to the Geegeez racecards and so today I'm having a play with them.

As well as all the data and comments that you find on the Racing Post site there are also a host of other features that help to make sense of a race.

Including what the Geegeez guys call Instant Expert.

Instant Expert gives a colour coded indicator of which horses are suited to today's conditions and help you to instantly see who the likely contenders in a race are.

So today, my first stop was The Shortlist which is another Geegeez feature that lists the horses with a mostly green profile in the Instant Expert.

The second horse listed on the shortlist was Albonny in the 6.55 at Kempton, I skipped the first because it was an odds on favourite (Clondaw Court).

So The Shortlist told me that Albonny had a mostly green profile so I then skipped off to look at the 6.55 for a closer look.

And what I've found is a horse that prefers the All Weather to turf and has won 3 of his 5 starts at Kempton.

Here's the Instant Expert for this race…

Geegeez Instant Expert

Click to Enlarge

The other useful feature is that when you look at the full form for a horse, you can filter it for certain types of races. So I can check a box and then only see the All Weather runs.

Here are those All Weather runs, the last three were all wins…

Geegeez Form

 

Anyway I'm going to have a small bet on Albonny and then I'm off to play again with the Geegeez Racecards.

You can check them out here http://www.geegeez.co.uk/race-cards

Today's Selection

Kempton 6.55 Albonny – 11/2 Bet 365

Please follow and like us:

National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

Please follow and like us:

Free System

There's a lot of hoopla today for a free system give away from a guy called Simon Patton.

So before I get to some more stats for our ongoing system research here is the link for the Simon Patton Meerkat system – https://dailypunt.com/simonpatton

Up In Class System – continued

As I expected it is already getting hard to get meaningful data for this system because of the number of runners that meet the up in class conditions.

The next on my list in order of number of runners that qualify is Miss Venetia Williams.

Miss Williams is well in profit this year with 3 wins from 4 runners, but the last time she was in profit prior to this year for this system was in 2007!

Here is a list of the courses where she has made profit with this system…

Venetia Williams Up In Class Table

If we add those courses to our rules we end up with only 1 bet so far this year and only 5 last year.

Considering this is the second busiest trainer in our initial systems rules then we may be going too deep here and should may be considering a different approach with a wider reach from our base system.

Time for a ponder.

Tell me what you think in the comments.

Today's Selection

2.15 Worcester Call Me Vic – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

Please follow and like us:
Facebook
Twitter
RSS
Follow by Email
Google+
https://dailypunt.com/tag/aligncenter/">

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close