Tag Archives: angle

Lay the Frogs

Don’t you just love it when you spend hours researching a system looking into an angle that you think will highlight some winners all for nothing.

Or worse still when you research a system and you think you’ve found a micro system with a little pocket of profit and you set it up in Horse Race Base to notify you of future runners and a year later it’s had just seven qualifying bets and all seven have lost.

That’s the results from a system I created last January and I’ve been waiting for some live results to prove it works before I write about it.

It looks like that day will never come 🙁

Whats worse still is that Derek Miller has just released a laying system that uses a similar angle to make big profits from laying.

It’s not the same angle I was looking at, I was looking at French bred horses on one particular all weather course.

Derek’s system is selecting French breds in National Hunt races, but it does serve to remind me that there are profits in following horses that are bred for different environments and that I knew that but I didn’t find the profit.

And Derek has.

The good news, for you, is that the system is free.

You can get it here http://dailypunt.com/freelayingsystem

Today’s selection

17:10 Wolverhampton Apparatchika – win bet – Evens Boylesports

Grand National Tip :-o

Can I have more please? More Nick Hardman incites.

Yes it’s Friday and this week Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) has an improvement to yesterday’s Southwell system, an ante post bet for the Grand National and an angle and selections for today’s Cheltenham meeting.
=====

Yesterday we gave you a nice system for Keith Dalgleish’s handicap runners at Southwell. I was playing around with Horse Race Base and I found that we can improve on his already excellent performance at the Midlands track with a system that has a 50% strike rate in the last two years.

Using HRB I found that all bar one of his 19 winners at Southwell were in races at distances between 7f and 2m (his runners are 1-12 over 5f and 6f showing a loss of -£5.50).

In addition I found that Dalgleish has used 15 different jockeys for those 72 rides at Southwell. All the winners have been ridden by just three jockeys:

If we concentrate on 2013 and 2014 then we come up with a system showing a 50% strike rate in the last two years:

Rules: Keith Dalgleish runners at Southwell (AW) over 7f to 2m ridden by Tom Eaves or Simon Walker:

Runners = 30
Winners = 15
Places = 17
Win strike rate = 50%
Place strike rate = 57%
Profit/ Loss = +£62.41

When it comes to readying one for the Grand National, no one does it better than the McCain yard. This season their two Grand National horses appear to be Across The Bay and Kruzhlinin.

Jockey bookings (and finishing places) in the Becher Chase suggest Kruzhlinin is the stable first choice for the Big One. He was sent off at 33/1 to for the Becher Chase where he finished a never nearer, but highly respectable 7th.

I expected to see him at a similar price for the 2015 Grand National and could not believe that Skybet were offering 100/1. About 18 horses finish the Grand National these days and Kruzhlinin has shown that he gets round over these fences, having finished 10th back in April.

Effectively we are looking at 100/1 in an 18 runner race. Unfortunately Skybet have cut him to 50/1 but he is still available at 66/1 with a few firms. When I bet the Grand National I am primarily looking for a sound jumper with course experience and a fairly low weight.

Kruzhlinin ticks plenty of boxes and as apparent stable first string he rates decent ante-post value at 66/1.

Grand National ante-post tip: Kruzhlinin @66/1

Cheltenham’s December meeting kicks off today with the feature race being the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday and unfortunately my ante-post fancies John’s Spirit and Present View are not lining up.

Paul Nicholls is the most successful trainer at the December meeting in recent times with 14 winners since 2010 (from 50 runners, 28% strike rate).

At the December meeting since 2010 he is 4-10 with his chasers in class 1 and 2 races that have run at Cheltenham 2 or more times.

He has the following entries that fit that profile:

Friday:

12.30pm Vivaldi Collonges (chase debut, likely outsider of the four)

Saturday

12.50pm Virak & Katgary
2.00pm Caid Du Berlais

Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

Southwell Trainer System

Today I’ve nicked a very small part of a detailed article that Nick Hardman wrote for the On Course Profits magazine.

(Get the whole mag for free at http://oncourseprofits.com)

The article that Nick wrote teaches readers how to find their own profitable trainer trends and in this excerpt he starts by looking at the leading trainers at Southwell.

southwell top trainers

 

Keith Dalgleish has a very healthy 28% strike rate and has had a decent amount of runners. By clicking on “Run” we can see the yearly breakdown of the trainer’s performance at the track.

Keith Dalgleish Breakdown

 

Two things are interesting here. Firstly, he has almost doubled the amount of runners he sends to the Midlands track compared to 2011 and 2012. Secondly, his performance in the last 2 seasons suggests his yard is clearly on an upward curve.

Again we use Keith Dalgleish at Southwell (AW) from 2011 to 2014 as the basic system to search for a profitable betting angle in HRB. Immediately we can see that all of his profit has come in handicap races.

Keith Dalgleish Handicap

Digging deeper into his handicap performers showed winners came from all age groups across a variety of race distances. The recommendation here would be to back all his handicap runners at Southwell.

If you haven’t already subscribed to On Course Profits then I highly recommend that you do so today and lock in a free life time subscription. Click Here

Today’s Selection

12:20 Newcastle Jonny Eager – win bet 3/1 Coral

 

Drifters – Good or Bad

Today’s pearl of wisdom has been inspired by a bet on the Racing Consultants (http://racingconsultants.co.uk) tipping service last week.

This bet has been the talk of the office because we got so many emails and opinions in about it.

Basically last Thursday David Massey posted up four bets

Today

7.15 Kempton – 1pt win Taaresh (8-1 Bet Victor, Paddy Power, W Hill and others)

7.45 Kempton – 1pt e/w Tevez (9-1 Skybet, Stan James, Coral)

2.15 Wincanton – 1.5pts win Silver Commander (at 6.6 and above Betfair)

2.15 Wincanton – 2pts lay Silver Commander at 2.76 in running.

4.5pts staked

The one that caused the fuss was Taaresh, this is what David wrote as his reasons for making the selection.

An angle we like to use on a regular basis is a horse that’s improved or refound it’s form over jumps that then reverts to the Flat with a mark that looks on the low side, and Kevin Morgan’s evergreen TAARESH fits that bill nicely here. Winner of a competitive 0-120 at Worcester that’s worked out quite well, he followed that up with a win off 7lb higher and in better class at Wincanton, a sign that he’s clearly in good heart at the moment. Upped in class again for his latest start at Musselburgh, he was far from disgraced in finishing fifth, just getting outpaced in the last quarter of a mile. Back on the Flat and in a low grade handicap, he looks well treated off just 70 here and as a C&D winner for Joe Fanning in the past, has no issue with the conditions either. A slight worry we have is the lack of pace in the race, but that is only a minor one, as he does travel well in his races and isn’t short of pace should it turn into a burn up in the straight.

You’ll note that the price available at the time the bet was posted was 8/1.

By race time he opened up at 16/1 and drifted out to 25/1!

So the question is, if you hadn’t already had your bet placed and a top service tipped you a horse at 8/1 that was now 16/1 and drifting to 20’s then 25’s would you have bet it?

And would you still have your full stake on it?

Or would you assume that it had no chance because of the price and not bet only to watch it win.

So many people will not bet a horse that drifts because they see it as a negative sign.

Gamblers who make money from their betting would see it as a good sign that they are getting extra value!

My advice is if there is sound reasoning as to why a horse should be a selection then your only concern with the price is that you get the best price that you can.

As I’ve used Racing Consultants as an example I should mention that the service has now been live for 6 month and every month has been a profitable month with a total profit of £1784.50 to £10 stakes. Which is pretty good for a service that costs just £30 per month. http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today’s Selection

4.10 Kempton Zman Awal – win bet 2/1 Paddy Power

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close