Tag Archives: beat

Football and Racing Tips

I had a bet last night for today's Cheltenham meeting that demonstrates how far you can beat the market by following tipsters who do their own race assessments rather than waiting for markets to form and letting those markets influence their decisions.

At 5pm yesterday the Racing consultants sent their members a note telling them to get on a horse that was available at 8/1 and that on their assessment should be much shorter.

I had my little tenner on with Bet 365 and now the horse is 5/1 with Bet 365 and best priced 11/2.

This horse might lose, but to me it will be remembered as a good bet whether it wins or loses because it is my strong opinion that you should judge your bets by how much you beat starting price not by whether they win or lose.

This might sound crazy to some readers. But others will know that if you keep beating starting price by big margins that the profits will take care of themselves.

I'm going to give you the bet and the full assessment in a minute, but first I'd like to recommend that whether it wins or loses that if you are serious about winning that you join the Racing Consultants service.

These guys send out bets like this one on a regular basis and they beat the market.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

By the way they sent another one at 5.20, but I'm not allowed to give that one, but if you join them you can get immediate access.

Here's the race assessment and bet…

2.25 FREEBETS.COM TROPHY CHASE (2M5F)

“Little Jon impressed me enough as a hurdler last year despite his build and background suggesting he’d be much better over fences, and he proved the point at the first time of asking at Newton Abbot in October, giving weight and a beating to the Paul Nicholls-trained Solar Impulse.

That preceded a trio of runs in higher company here, and the bottom line is that the long-striding son of Pasternak hasn’t beaten another rival.

That said, he actually ran a cracker when a close third over 2m in November, and has crashed out when leading on his next two starts.

Despite those aberrations, he appeals as a pretty sound jumper, if inclined to take the occasional fence (or indeed wing) on.

The upside of his failures is that he’s not revealed the full extent of his ability, and therefore the handicapper hasn’t been as severe as he might have been, accepting that an opening mark of 140 is no gimme.

Main opposition comes primarily in the shape of Easter Day for Paul Nicholls, and he can’t be ruled out of calculations, for all his odds will be skinny enough.

More interesting at the forecast prices is Annacotty, who was second in the novice handicap on this card last year. He was another who couldn’t cope with the demands of the Hennessy first time out, but he’s reportedly been perked up by a spell hunting, and also has cheekpieces fitted, so should have no excuses.

He was a Grade 1 winner last year, and that fact shouldn’t be overlooked.

2.25 Chel – 2pts win Little Jon @ 8/1 (Bet365)”

As mentioned above current best price is 11/2 with Skybet, Bet Victor, Paddy Power

Football Perm

We had a win last week with The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Free Trial Here)
and this week I've gone with their home wins perm…

Top Rated ‘Best 6 Homes'
(Perm any 5 from 6 plus all 6 = 7 bets)
TOTTENHAM
NORWICH
WATFORD
WOLVES
MK DONS
BARNET
The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 6 Homes' are available with…

Coral

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Nick Hardman Tips

Anybody that followed our Friday Nick Hardman columns in 2014 will have made plenty of profit from the selections posted.

2015 has already got off to a great start and today Nick has selections at Huntingdon and Doncaster and selections for tomorrows Lanzarote…

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We had a great start to 2015 with 3 winners from our 5 AW selections in addition to L’Ami Serge winning comfortably and Triolo D’Alene grabbing some place money @16/1 under a brilliant ride by Barry Geraghty on Saturday.

This week we turn our attention to the Friday cards at Huntingdon and Doncaster and we have a couple of selections for the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday.

Nicky Henderson has a 44% strike rate at Huntingdon in the last 2 years. In that time he has sent out 15 winners from 34 runners. 9 of those winners were in hurdles races and he is 3-4 in maiden hurdles at the course.

Today he has a couple of qualifiers who are pretty much unknown quantities.

Huntingdon 1.20pm Maestro Royale
Huntingdon 2.30pm Hel Tara

Nicky Henderson also does well at Doncaster with his hurdlers. In the last two years his hurdlers at the course are 15-37 (41% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of £37.46.

His handicap hurdlers have a lower strike rate (31%) but tend to pop up at decent prices with his last 4 handicap hurdle winners at the course returning industry SPs of 16/1, 15/2, 8/1 and 8/1. He has a trio of hurdle runners today.

Doncaster 12.30pm Saint Charles (Maiden hurdle)
Doncaster 1.35pm Nicolas Chauvin (Novice hurdle)
Doncaster 3.15pm Earth Amber (Handicap hurdle)

The Lanzarote Hurdle is one of the feature races on Saturday and I like the look of Dawalan and Hello George who are both backable each-way at 8/1.

Dawalan represents the Henderson/ Geraghty combination.

Back in November he got to within half a length of Sign Of A Victory over 2 miles and the latter is now rated 149 over hurdles having been last seen in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Kempton.

Dawalan also had the re-opposing Kilcooley 16 lengths behind that day and that horse has gone on and franked that form (2nd to L’Ami Serge and 23 length winner at Haydock on his next two starts).

What is more significant though in the context of the Lanzarote hurdle is Dawalan’s battling victory at Ascot over 2m 4f on his last start.

That day he was outpaced and 5 lengths down three from home, but rallied gamely to get up close home to beat stable mate and 145 rated Bear’s Affair.

The extra furlong should suit and he gets a whole stone from Kilcooley who heads the weights.

Hello George ran a good race in the Ladbroke Hurdle, not beaten that far in 6th. He probably needs more of a test than the 2 miles he faced that day and he certainly gets it here.

He was tapped for toe in the Ladbroke but stayed on nicely to suggest the step up in trip may well suit.

He gets in off a light weight of 10st and that should see him competitive if he sees out the trip.

Saturday January 10th

Kempton 2.40 pm Dawalan 8/1 and Hello George 8/1 (1pt e/w ¼ odds, 4 places)

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Football Forecasts

I've got more free tips for you today from a service that has made over 50 points profit in December.

Mark Foley knows the Premier League inside out which is obvious by the detailed analysis that his members get for every match that he analyses.

Today he has bets in three matches and below I have shared his analysis and bets for the Stoke v Man U game.

If you want instant access to the other two games you can join his service for a trial price of £9.99 for the first month.

http://footballforecasts.uk

Stoke City v Manchester United 12.45 KO Skysports 1

Manchester United have a good record in this match, they have won 11 and lost just one of their 13 League meetings with Stoke City. They have won five and lost just one of their last seven away games in all competitions against Stoke, but Stoke are looking solid at the moment and will record three successive Premier League clean sheets for only the second time if they keep United at bay today.

United have played 5 of the teams currently in the bottom half of the table and they haven’t beaten any of them. Stoke really get up for these games, they are notoriously difficult to beat at The Britannia if you are one of the top teams and are in decent form; they held Chelsea to a single goal for over an hour and have recently beaten Arsenal and Everton.

United have by far the bigger squad, but have been badly affected by injuries and the manager admitted that they were running on empty in the 2nd half against Spurs on Sunday. United have only gone in once at Half time leading away from home this season and half of their matches home and away have either been 0-0 or 1-1 at Half time. Six of Stoke’s home games have had no more than one goal in the first 45. I can see this being 0-0 at half time and either ending as a draw or Stoke pulling off a shock. United’s home form and that of David De Gea is disguising the fact that they have been relatively poor away from home. Powers are running a Money Back Special if this ends 0-0, do I’m concentrating on the correct score and first goal scorer markets.

Rooney has scored five goals in his last seven Premier League appearances, but only one of them has come away from home, so I’m happy to pass him over for the first goal.

Peter Crouch has scored only twice in 20 Premier League appearances against Man Utd but both have come for Stoke, we know he likes to get an early goal.
Robin van Persie has scored 10 goals in 10 Premier League appearances against the Potters, including four in five for Manchester United and is the only United player to have scored more than one goal away from home this season.

My Bets:
(All with Paddy Power, Money back special if the match ends 0-0)

Correct score Stoke 1-0: Powers MBS 10/1
Correct score Stoke 2-1: Powers MBS 11/1
Correct score Draw 1-1: Powers MBS 11/2
1st goal scorer P Crouch: Powers MBS 7/1
1st goal scorer R Van Persie: Powers MBS 4/1

Also considered:
Draw/Draw Widely available 9/2
Draw/Stoke Widely available 8/1

For Mark's analysis of Aston Villa V Crystal Palace (15:00) and Tottenham v Chelsea (17:30) join here…

http://footballforecasts.uk

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King George Tips

A big days racing today with the highlight being the King George Chase.

Tomorrow we have the Welsh National to look forward to.

Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) looks at both races and gives his selections.
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Last week we landed 2 winners from 4 selections at SP’s of 15/2 and 7/4.

This week we turn our attention to the two big races over the Xmas period – the King George VI Chase and the Welsh National.

I have covered both races in detail in the latest issue of the Betting Insiders Magazine and my opinion for the King George has not changed in that Silviniaco Conti is the best staying chaser in training right now.

I put him up as an ante-post tip in the Betting Insiders December issue @4/1.

He is now a best priced 5/2 and if you think that is value then back him.

Cue Card has disappointed this season and was out-stayed by Silviniaco Conti in last year’s King George and I cannot see him reversing that form. Champagne Fever had a hit-and-miss novice season. He was beaten in both the Leopardstown Xmas festival and Punchestowns Festival and arguably his best performance was his 2nd place finish in the Arkle. He was impressive on his seasonal reappearance when he beat Alderwood over 2 ½ miles.

The King George is much tougher and he is too short in my opinion at 10/3.

Al Ferof easily won the Amlin Chase over 2m 3f at Ascot in November and was third in the King George last year (beaten 14 ½ lengths). He has won 5 of his 11 chase starts but has come up short tackling 3 miles in the past. He was slammed 25 lengths by Harry Topper in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury last February over 3 miles and followed that up with a disappointing 5th in the Ryanair.

I think his form flatters to deceive and I cannot see him winning this year’s King George.

I think Dynaste is a much better each-way proposition as he definitely gets the 3 mile trip and ran Silviniaco Conti to within 1 ¼ lengths in the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at Aintree in April. Beaten 10 lengths by Silviniaco Conti in November’s Betfair Chase was a decent effort first time out this season and I think he rates a danger to the favourite.

He is one for the each-way backers @14/1 or those who want to play the place market.

King George VI Chase:

Selection: Silviniaco Conti @5/2
Each-way alternative: Dynaste @8/1

The Welsh National is a great race for trends analysis and this is the typical profile:

• Aged 7yo or 8yo
• A top 4 finish LTO
• Carrying 10-09 or less (10-0 or 10-01 if the going is heavy)
• Had last raced 16 – 60 days previously
• Had 1 or 2 runs in the current season
• Had previously raced over 3m 5 ½ furlongs of further (preferably 4+ miles)

Those that currently fit the profile are Global Power, Amigo and Emperor’s Choice.

It remains to be seen if any make the final cut.

Amigo for David Pipe was runner up in the trial race 3 weeks ago and finished 7th in this last year. He has winning form at Chepstow over 3 miles and acts on the ground.

Oliver Sherwood’s Global Power has bits and pieces of form over staying trips including a 4th place finish in 2013 Midlands National and a win in the Cumberland Handicap Chase over 3m 2f on heavy ground in 2013 and a 2nd place finish in the same race 12 months later.

Emperor’s Choice for Venetia Williams won the 2013 Surrey National over 3m 4f on heavy ground and followed that up with a win in the West Wales National in 2014 over 3m 4f. His chase form on heavy going reads 2111612. A thorough stayer if ever there was one.

Welsh National trends horses:

Global Power @25/1
Emperor’s Choice @25/1
Amigo @14/1

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