by Dave French

October 17, 2014

Nick hit the jackpot again last week with the winner of the Cesarewitch, which returned 10/1.

To get more of Nick's expertise check out the Betting Insiders Club where Nick is a regular contributor.

Here's Nick…

Big Easy did the business as one of our two trends horses in the Cesarewitch last week to add to our trends winners in the Cambridgeshire and Ebor.

This week we look to the all-weather and a couple of systems that will hopefully keep the winners ticking over as we enter a difficult period for punters where the flat season ends and the jumps begin.

The boys in blue from Godolphin are more famous for picking up Group 1 wins around the world than for picking up winners at the UK all-weather tracks.

However, they are well worth following in the upcoming months. Here is the combined performance of Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor on the AW in the last 2 years:

Runners: 353
Winners: 89
Strike Rate: 25%
Level stakes profit: £57.81

They tend not to run any at Southwell, they make a small profit at Lingfield and an overall loss at Wolverhampton. Kempton seems to be their preferred track and their figures for 2013 and 2014 at that track are:

Runners: 205
Winners: 51
Strike Rate: 25%
Level stakes profit: £71.99

44 of those 51 winners were aged 2yo or 3yo. That gives us two micro systems for Kempton (AW) for Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor.

Godolphin 2yo runners at Kempton over 7f and 1 mile (Jan 2013 to Oct 2014):

Runners: 66
Winners: 21
Strike Rate: 32%
Level stakes profit: £49.17

Godolphin 3yo runners at Kempton between 6f and 1 mile 3f (Jan 2013 to Oct 2014):

Runners: 70
Winners: 17
Strike Rate: 24%
Level stakes profit: £33.24

QIPCO Champions Day has a completely different feel this year with the retirement of Kingman, Australia and Taghrooda and the withdrawal of some top horses on account of the forecast heavy ground.

With the latter in mind we might see a few upsets if the going is officially described as “heavy”.

That’s good news for the proven mudlarks and I have picked out a few whose best form has come on soft or heavy ground.

Some of these are big outsiders who could well outrun their current prices if they get their favoured conditions:

Ascot Saturday October 18th

1.45pm Whiplash Willie @10/1
2.20pm Maarek @7/1 & An Saighdiur @100/1
2.55pm Cubanita @15/2 and Madame Chiang @16/1
3.30pm Tullius @10/1
4.45pm Levitate @12/1 (Chatez @8/1 & Russian Realm 12/1 also go well on soft)

These are tough races and the horses above will need to beat some seriously good equine stars to get involved.

However, the heavy going may help them compete on more favourable terms.

I will not be lumping on but I will have a couple of quid each-way where applicable, or play them on the place markets on Betfair.

Disclaimer: All views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of TGH Trading Ltd or it's employees.

About the author 

Dave French

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  1. Thanks Bill. Hope you made a few quid today on Madame Chiang (Betfair SP was 18.72). I thought Tullius and Whiplash Willie ran really well and just missed out on the places. Levitate also ran a cracker in the finale.

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