Tag Archives: Betfair SP

Big Priced Yankee

We're running a bit late with today's message and that's because one of the best tipsters online has some free tips to give away but I'm not allowed to tell you before 12:00.

If you haven't heard of Nicky Doyle he's a hot shot Irish tipster who tips for the big races both sides of the water.

He tops the tipster proofing tables at Race Advisor with Betfair SP profit of 123 points and 177 points profit at advised prices.

Nicky is getting ready for Cheltenham and would like to give you his selections for a big priced Cheltenham Yankee.

To get these selections as well as free tips for the Saturday big race every week.

And these free Saturday tips have proven to be highly profitable with 150 points made in 2014.

To get these free goodies just Click Here and register your email address.

Today's Selection

13:50 Towcester Dusky Legend – win bet – 11/8 Boylesports

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Willie Mullins Update

Today we have two selections from the Willie Mullins systems I published on October 28th.

So today I have looked at how the system has performed since publication.

There have only been nine bets and they were…

18.11.2014 Wexford Measureofmydreams Won (RW)
18.11.2014 Wexford Aminabad Won (RW)
16.11.2014 Punchestown Hurricane Fly Won (RW)
15.11.2014 Punchestown River Run 2nd (RW)
15.11.2014 Punchestown Tarabiyn 2nd (RW)
9.11.2014 Limerick Uranna 3rd (PT)
9.11.2014 Limerick Lucky Bridle Won (PT)
9.11.2014 Navan Zaidpour Won (RW)
9.11.2014 Navan Uradel Lost (RW)

There were five wins which gives a strike rate of 55% and the wins have returned industry SP's of 2/9, Evens, 15/8, 2/7, 8/13 which actually gives a break even profit and loss.

At Betfair SP the winners returned 2.09, 1.26, 3.24, 1.28,1.62 which gives a 0.49 point profit before commission and a 0.26 point profit with 5% commission paid.

So not setting the world on fire but on the right track.

The letters in brackets indicate which jockey rode, Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend.

You can read the original article here…

https://dailypunt.com/free-national-hunt-system-2/

And the selections the system has thrown up today are…

1:25 Thurles Bosman Rule
2:00 Thurles Valyssa Monterg

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National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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David Pipe Micro System

Looking through my Horse Race Base report today there is a selection from a system I added back in spring 2013 that has been consistently profitable.

It hasn't produced a huge number of bets with just 40 in 18 months but a modest profit has been made that would no doubt be bigger at best odds guaranteed prices or Betfair SP.

I think I picked this up from Ben Aitken of Narrowing the Field, google him up for lots of National Hunt tidbits.

So the system basically is to bet David Pipe trained horses when they finished in the first four last time out and are reappearing within 11 days.

Also the selection has to be male.

The one that qualifies today is 2.20 Exeter number 4, Bathwick Man.

Today's Selection

2.20 Exeter Bathwick Man – win bet – 4/1 Bet Victor, Sky Bet

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