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Tony McCoy OBE

Following on from Monday's article today I'm going to look at some stats from Champion Jockey Tony McCoy.

By the way yesterdays eachway bet that placed second was from the system we created on Monday.

Ok, so backing all of Tony's mounts would as you'd expect returns a loss, but not as a big a loss as I expected at 15% of stakes lost.

If we break that down by race type we see that Hurdles perform best with an excellent 27% strike rate from all hurdle start and a loss of just 11%.

Tony McCoy by Race Type Table

At this stage of my research I was pondering where to go next and looking down the list of factors and say ‘Going'.

My first thought was that, that is a factor that depends more on the particular horse than the jockey, but then I pictured AP pumping away, driving a tired horse home and thought I bet he does better in Heavy going than other jocks. And he does.

Over the last two years backing all of McCoys Hurdle rides on Heavy going has produced a 25% ROI and a 31% strike rate.

However over the long term this strategy has been pretty much break even, so maybe something to keep in mind rather than to bet blindly.

For today I'm going to wrap up with a look at how he performs for different trainers.

My thoughts are that as I've said for previous jockeys that I would expect them to be a losing proposition for their own stable rides, just because they have to ride everything and that seems to be the case with Jonjo O Neill rides showing a loss.

The table below shows every Hurdle ride since January 1st 2013 and I've sorted it by ROI to help spot the trainers who make a profit when they book the real McCoy.

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

 

Today's Selection

2:00 Ludlow Sin Bin – win bet – 4/1 Bet Victor

Trends and Tips

Here's our regular Friday column from the excellent Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman )

Goldencents (adv 5/4) and Lady Eli (adv 13/2) got us off to a flyer last weekend, the latter putting in an awesome display of speed to win going away from the field.

We followed that up on Saturday with Aurore D’Estruval annihilating her small field. She was widely available at 11/8 before being backed into odds-on favouritism.

This week we will take a trends look at the November handicap from Doncaster and a quick preview of the Wentworth Stakes and Badger Ales Trophy. First we focus on a trainer with an impressive strike rate at Musselburgh.

The man in question is Donald McCain Jr. He has had more winners at Musselburgh over the jumps than any other trainer in the last 5 years.

His 29 winners have come from 102 runners at a strike rate of 28% and a level stakes profit of £32.25.

His handicap hurdlers at Musselburgh underperform compared to his other runners (2-29, 7% strike rate; level stakes loss -£22.75).

If we remove those runners then his stats look like this:

D. McCain Jr – chase, bumper and non-handicap hurdle runners at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014:

Runners: 73
Winners: 27
Strike Rate: 37%
Level stakes profit: £55.00

He has the following runners this Friday up at Musselburgh:

1.00pm Al Musheer (Juvenile Hurdle)
1.30pm Master Dee (Maiden Hurdle)
2.30pm Welsh Bard (Handicap Chase)
4.00pm Gingili (NH Flat)

Those stats were further boosted by 5/1 winner Roserrow on Thursday in a Novice Hurdle.

If you want to dig a little deeper, then I can tell you that D. McCain Jr is 5-22 (23% strike rate) in handicap chases, 12-33 (36%) in non-handicap hurdle races and 4-7 (57%) in NH flat races at Musselburgh since 2010.

Saturday sees a decent flat card at Doncaster with the highlight being the November handicap. I have run through the trends and we are looking for a horse rated 93 – 99 (all of the last 10 winners), aged 4yo to 6yo (7 of the last 8 winners), carrying 8st 10lbs to 9st 2lbs (all of the last 7 winners), won over 1m 4f or further and has raced in the last 60 days.

No favourite has obliged since 1995 and all of the last 7 winners were drawn in stall 9 or higher.

A top 4 finish LTO accounts for 13 of the last 17 winners and at least 4 runs that current season accounts for 16 of the last 17 winners. Putting all that together leaves us with:

Doncaster November handicap trends horses:

Esteaming @16/1 and Manhattan Swing @16/1

Elsewhere on Saturday, if the word “good” disappears from the current “good to soft” going then Jack Dexter will be in his element on a track where his form figures read 1113 on soft ground and he would be my pick in the Wentworth Stakes.

He put in his best run of the season on Champions Day (heavy ground) when 3rd behind Gordon Lord Byron and Tropics. This represents a drop in class for Tropics and Jack Dexter and they would both have to seriously misfire for one of them not to take this.

The Badger Ales Trophy looks highly competitive again this year and Standing Ovation has a great chance of retaining his crown.

He is 3-3 at Wincanton and although he went off the boil after landing this in 2013, he appeared back to his best LTO at Cheltenham when 2nd to Roalco De Farges.

Standing Ovation’s trainer David Pipe has won this race three times since 2007.

Even more impressive is Paul Nicholls who has won this 7 times since 1999. He has two entries, Benvolio and Just A Par. However, both make their seasonal reappearances here and the Nicholl’s horses have tended to need a run this season.

Lamb Or Cod represents the in-form Philip Hobbs and he loves good ground. If it stays good he will be a major player.

Alfie Spinner is closely matched on recent running with Standing Ovation and could run well at an each-way price.

On a final note, three weeks ago we gave you a couple of Godolphin microsystems for the all-weather racing at Kempton.

So far these two systems have pulled in 9.82pts profit at SP so keep an eye out for the Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor runners at Kempton in the coming months.

All the best Nick

http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman

Football and Racing Tips

Today we have a bet at Wolverhampton from Peter Hawkeye, a football perm form The alternative Punters Syndicate and a reminder of Nick's selections for Champions Day.

First up is Peter Hawkeye.

We have a special offer running for Daily Punt readers who can join Hawkeye Tips for just £7.99 – Click Here http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

I do like to look out for improving 3 year olds when they are taking on older horses at this time of the season. Tonight at Wolverhampton Ragged Robin in the 7.45 is doing just that.

He has improved no end over the summer, to some that seemed to have come to an end last time out. But that was a tough race against other 3 year olds and back getting lumps of weight tonight from the majority of the filed I expect a further resumption of improvement at 15’2.

Next up is the TAPS weekend football perm, this is one of four perms that TAPS member get every week in addition to their daily racing tips.

The TAPS offer is a totally free one month trial, click here http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
CHELSEA
LIVERPOOL
WOLVES
SHEFF UTD
HIBERNIAN

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
Ladbrokes

Finally Nick from Betting Insiders yesterday suggested that if the going stays Heavy at Ascot that there may be some outsiders winning against the form book.

You can read the full write up here but to recap here are the selections.

1.45pm Whiplash Willie @10/1
2.20pm Maarek @7/1 & An Saighdiur @100/1
2.55pm Cubanita @15/2 and Madame Chiang @16/1
3.30pm Tullius @10/1
4.45pm Levitate @12/1 (Chatez @8/1 & Russian Realm 12/1 also go well on soft)

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