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Nick Hardman Free Racing Tips

It's Friday and here's Nick Hardman from the Betting School Insiders Club.
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We had another terrific Friday last week courtesy of Nicky Henderson’s hurdlers and he rattled up a hat-trick across the cards with winners at 6/1, 4/1 and 9/4. With Chepstow abandoned and nothing making any appeal at Musselburgh, we turn out attention back to the AW and some qualifiers from the systems we are road testing over at the Betting School Insiders Club which are ticking over nicely.

There are no qualifiers from Lingfield but we have a few from the evening card at Wolverhampton below:

5.15pm Solar Deity & Linton
5.45pm Harwoods Star
6.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45 Go Packing Go & Sciustree

Solar Deity looks to have a good chance to get off the mark in 2015 after a string of placed efforts. He is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival on official ratings but is well-in under these weights. He rates a solid bet and I expect him to shorten so take the best morning price with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker.

Stablemate Linton needs to recapture the form that saw him win plenty of races in Australia and compete in a pair of Listed races on the flat last year. I would be as surprised as anyone if Linton were to take this from his stablemate but he is one that may tempt the each-way backers at a price.

Harwoods Star got turned over at 4/9 on his last start but has a chance of making amends here back up in trip and with7lb claimer Aaron Jones back on board. The yard are in excellent form too so he is worth another chance.

The same trainer and jockey team up on Little Lord Nelson in the next and he also has decent chance on handicap debut. The final race will most likely see Charlie Appleby’s New Approach colt Symbolic Star go off a warm order. If he takes a chunk out of the market that could see our two qualifiers go off at an each-way price.

Sciustree is related to plenty of winners and was 6th of 12 on debut and should improve for that experience. Go Packing Go is also well related and makes her debut here.

Saturday’s feature race is the Clarence House Chase which sees the return of the mighty Sprinter Sacre. I for one will be hoping he doesn’t just win this, but wins in the manner of a horse that totally dismisses his rivals. Racing needs superstars and we want this one back. With that in mind it is a watching race and not a betting race for me.

For a selection on Saturday I have run the rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock from a trends perspective.

We have a shortlist of 4 qualifiers in Vintage Star, Benbens, Amigo and Toby Lerone. Benbens had Amigo some 20 lengths behind in the Welsh National and I cannot see any reason why Amigo should turn the tables here.

Toby Lerone put in a career best last time when finishing second to Broadway Buffalo in the Tommy Whittle Chase at this venue. He is up 6lbs for that and could still be improving. That was on heavy ground too, which he will likely get again on Saturday.

Vintage Star is 4lbs lower than when runner-up in this race last year. He is also back down to his last winning mark that saw him win a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on heavy ground over 3m 1f.

He has not performed that well in 3 starts this season but he has yet to see really testing ground which he may well get on Saturday. Trainer Suzy Smith has an excellent record in the race having trained 2 winners, a runner-up and two third placed finishers since 2000.

It’s a leap of faith but I am willing to make him one of my selections from the shortlist in the hope this is a true test of stamina.

I am torn between Benbens and Toby Lerone for my second selection but I will side with Benbens as the father & son Twiston-Davies combination has been in fine form recently. In addition he was travelling as well as anything in the Welsh National until running out of gas about three flights from home. Back down in trip I think he can go well.

Saturday Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Star e/w
Benbens e/w

The one runner who does interest me on Saturday’s cards is super-tough mare Carole’s Spirit in the Mare’s Hurdle race at Ascot.

A winner of 4 of her 5 starts her only defeat came at the hands of Highland Retreat who has gone on to be an exciting novice chaser for Harry Fry.

Against her own sex and proven over track, trip and ground I expect her to go very close.

Saturday Ascot 1.50pm
Carole’s Spirit

Good Luck
Nick Hardman
Betting School Insiders Club

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Football & Racing Tips

Today we have football tips from The Alternative Punters Syndicate and a recap of Nick Hardman's racing tips.

Yesterday Nick told us about the Henderson/ Geraghty partnership at Sandown and here are the qualifying bets.

Henderson/ Geraghty, Sandown 3rd January 2015:

1.50 Tanks For That (Handicap chase)
2.25 L’Ami Serge (Grade 1 hurdle)
3.35 Triolo D’Alene (Handicap chase)

Nicky Henderson also has the following entries at the time of writing although it remains to be seen which horses take up their engagement and if they do, whether Barry Geraghty will be on board.

12.40 Mayfair Music (Listed hurdle)
3.00 Royal Irish Hussar, Sweet Deal and Lough Kent

We have our regular away bets perm back from The Alternative Punters Syndicate, you can get a free one month trial of TAPS here.

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
CRYSTAL PALACE
SWINDON
BURY
ABERDEEN
DUNDEE UTD

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
VCBet

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Systems & Selections from Nick Hardman

We had a nice profit from the Football Forecasts free bets I published yesterday and those that joined the service doubled up their profit with the remaining bets.

Football Forecasts is well worth following and you can try it for a month for £9.99 here http://footballforecasts.uk

Today we are back to the racing with Nick Hardman.

Nick gave us a huge week last time with King George and Welsh National winners and today he has selections for today and tomorrow's racing.

Get more Nick Hardman goodness here Betting Insiders

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Happy New Year to all Daily Punt subscribers and hopefully a few of you were on our Boxing Day selections for the King George and Welsh National.

On to today and a couple of things I want to share with you.

First up is the Henderson/ Geraghty combination at Sandown.

Since 2010 they have teamed up for 25 winners from just 77 rides, producing a level stakes profit of £29.28 at a strike rate of 32%.

2014 in particular was a good time to back the pair as they managed 5 winners from 13 runners and a level stakes profit of £21.92 (38% strike rate).

In addition to that they have a 52% strike rate in non-handicap hurdle races at the course. On Saturday they team up on the following horses at Sandown:

Henderson/ Geraghty, Sandown 3rd January 2015:

1.50 Tanks For That (Handicap chase)
2.25 L’Ami Serge (Grade 1 hurdle)
3.35 Triolo D’Alene (Handicap chase)

Nicky Henderson also has the following entries at the time of writing although it remains to be seen which horses take up their engagement and if they do, whether Barry Geraghty will be on board.

12.40 Mayfair Music (Listed hurdle)
3.00 Royal Irish Hussar, Sweet Deal and Lough Kent

For Friday I have a few qualifiers from some more systems I am road testing. The qualifiers are:

Southwell Friday January 2nd 2015

12.50pm Wrenigham @12/1
1.55pm Beautiful Stranger @11/2
2.30pm Poppy Bond @11/2

Wreningham has not won for an eternity but has course figures 811332 and is 5lbs below his last winning mark. He could reward each-way backers and Joe Fanning is on board.

Beautiful Stranger is trained by Keith Dalgleish a trainer with a superb record with his handicappers at the Midlands course.

Poppy Bond has two wins and three seconds from 9 AW starts and drops back in trip here after travelling well on her last start. She finished a good second on her last try over track and trip in August 2013.

Wolverhampton Friday January 2nd 2015

5.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45pm Tsarglas

Little Lord Nelson ran well on tapeta debut last month and is an interesting runner taking a big drop in trip for a trainer with a good record at Wolverhampton.

Stable mate Tsarglas was a last time out winner and there may be more to come with Adam Kirby an eye-catching booking.

As always, if you are having a bet on these selections then please wager sensibly as these systems are very much a work in progress.

Best of luck.

Nick Hardman

Betting Insiders

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National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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