Tag Archives: Catterick

Donald McCain Junior

Do you know who has sent out the most National Hunt runners since January 1st 2013.

Donald McCain Junior.

Thats surprised me, my guess would have been David Pipe or Paul Nicholls, but they come in fourth and fifth behind Donald, Jonjo and Willie Mullins.

So today I'm going to look at some Donald McCain stats, I don't know if they will lead us anywhere, but we'll see.

The headline numbers for all National Hunt runs since January 1st 2013 are a loss of 30% on monies invested with a 16% strike rate.

Donald McCain All Runs Table

 

If we break that down by race type we can see that there isn't much difference in the ROI's although hurdles are the least profitable at SP. National Hunt Flat have the highest strike rate.

Donald McCain Racetype Table

 

For now I'm going to look more closely at the Hurdle races because there is more volume their to work with and the strike rate is better then the Chases.

Breaking down the hurdle runs by track it seems that Donald will go anywhere for his runs with almost every course featuring in the last two years.

This table shows just the ones where he's had more than 10 runs.

Donald McCain Hurdles by Course TableOnly Newcastle, Kelso and  Musselburgh have a positive ROI, with Newcastle and Kelso very positive.

When I look at Jockeys I see that Tony McCoy has a positive ROI again, despite the fact that so many mug punters bet everything he rides he still manages to outrun his odds, you'll remember it was the same with Nicky Henderson.

McCain Hurdles by Jockey

Noel Fehily also has a very good strike rate, but from not many rides.

Ok let's skip ahead a bit and see if we can put something together that is profitable for us to benchmark future McCain runners that we are considering betting.

What I've done is to select all tracks where the strike rate was over 20%, I've then discounted the off season months and only looked at October to March.

And I've excluded Heavy going.

Which gives me a 29.4 % ROI at iSP and a 29% strike rate from 150 runs.

Donald McCain Micro System

 

The courses I included are

Ayr, Bangor, Cartmel, Catterick, Kelso, Musselburgh, Newcastle, Sedgefield & Worcester.

We can improve the ROI by only including Jason Maguire rides but then we will be below 100 bets since January 1st 2013.

Today's Selection

Carlisle 4:00 Court Dismissed – win bet – 5/4 Bet 365

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Free Bets

Here's a nifty free bets offer that will give you plenty of interest throughout the upcoming Premier League season.

Paddy Power have an offer in the Premier League Top Goal Scorer market, whereby you get a free bet every time your selection scores a goal.

You have to stake £20 and you get a free £2 bet every time your selection scores a Premier League goal.

So your selection only has to score 10 goals all season for you to get your money back in free bets!

Last seasons top score was of course Luis ‘Gnasher' Suarez with a tally of 31.

So if this offer had been available last year then Suarez bettors would have bagged £62 worth of free bets.

So, how to play this?

You could lay the bet off at Betfair and just collect your free bets, but that would tie up at least £100 all season which is probably not ideal for most of us.

So I recommend that you play it straight. Bet on who you think will be top scorer, have an interest all season and collect your free bets.

To that end you might want to look to Chelsea or Man City who are the pre season favourites for the Premier League at 15/8 and 12/5.

However as we've said last seasons top scorer was Luis Suarez, I don't know what price Liverpool were pre season, but they certainly weren't favourites!

I'll leave the selection up to you because you've got to live with it all season and a bet like that needs to be made on a player and a team that you would like to see do well.

To get the offer go to http://paddypower.com and you'll see it at the top centre of the screen.

As always terms and conditions apply.

Today's Selection

Catterick 3.15 Special Fighter – win bet – 7/4 Bet Victor

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Basic Betting Math

Grey Horse BotToday we have our second guest column from Malcolm Pett of Greyhorse Bot fame.

—–

Apart from automation I love statistics.

Personally I don’t understand how anyone can even start to follow a system or tips unless they have some basic statistical information.

At the very least you need two pieces of information.

Strike Rate (SR) and Average winning odds (AWO).

Those are the two main ingredients of any system and if they don’t balance these, then there is no profit.

If you have a low SR you need higher AWO.

Or if you have a high AWO then you can get away with a lower SR.

Basic Betting Maths

Here is how to work it out quickly…

Let’s say you know you have a strike rate of 25%

100-25 = 75
75 / 25 = 3.00

Basically the 25 winners have to cover the 75 losers.
And so those 25 runners need average winning odds of 3.00 just to break even.

You are going to need something higher than 3 to really make a profit.

Let’s say your AWO were 7.00

100 / 7 = 14.28
So your strike rate needs to be better than 14.28% before you make a profit.

The two above examples do not take into consideration any cost, like Betfair’s commission.

Your strike rate can also point you in the direction of your longest losing run, which in turn, can help you decide on the size of stake compared to your bank that you should use.

A 13% strike rate points to a possible losing run of 48 or more selections in a row…

Are you ready for that?

Many systems fail just because the AWO goes down. This happens when too many people start following a system especially when it is based around outsiders.

If you are following a system you need to keep an eye on both the above figures.

There will be variations especially during spells without winners or really good winning runs, but overall you should see very small changes.

Take a note of the current SR and AWO the moment you start following any selections which will give you a point of reference for the future.

If you are a real nerd like me then you can even go back over the results and test these two figures at different points in time.

I did this with one service and found that over the last 6 months both figures had been dropping slowly, pointing to a place not too far in the future where there would probably be no profit at all.

At the Grey Horse Bot site we do a lot of “open” system testing and all our selections come with a full set of day by day results.

But we don’t stop there we also have a month by month round up and the full statistics including Return on investment and a graph thrown in for good measure.

My belief is that many people start using systems/tips without even considering the numbers.

Profit looks good on paper but the really important thing is…

… “How does the system make that profit?”

Thank you for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

You can find out more about Grey Horse Bot here.

Todays Selection
4.00 Catterick – 1pt win Go Far @ 5/1

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Chester Draw Bias

Chester Race CourseThere's racing at Chester on Saturday.

So my mind turned to the Chester draw bias, but more specifically my thoughts turned to the weather and more specifically how does the draw pan out when the going is soft or heavy.

I have no idea what the going will be on Saturday at Chester, but the course is in a dip and nearby Haydock is soft today…

So you'll remember that previously that we said that the bias is significant and profitable at distances that start on a bend https://dailypunt.com/chester-draw-bias-2/

But the sample size will be too small if I restrict the data to just the most profitable distances.

So everything below is data for all distances.

First off here are the stats for stalls 1 and 2 for different going.

Chester Draw Bias by Going

Click to Enlarge

Good to Firm is significant but we aren't going to get that tomorrow, so we'll look at that another day.

The strike rate for Heavy is huge at 26% but a very small sample.

If we break the Heavy runs down by stall. IE the above was stalls 1 and 2. This table shows the breakdown between 1 and 2.

Chester Draw Bias - Heavy

Click to Enlarge

That might not look significant because of the low volume of runs, but if we look at the soft table for stalls 1 and 2, we see the stall 2 strike rate is higher again.

Chester Draw Bias - Soft

Click to Enlarge

So in summary very small data sets here (last 11 years) but I'm thinking when the going is Soft or Heavy I'll be thinking about Stall 2 runners more than Stall 1.

Today's Selection

8.45 Catterick Zeus Magic – eachway bet – 7/1 Boylesports

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