So my mind turned to the Chester draw bias, but more specifically my thoughts turned to the weather and more specifically how does the draw pan out when the going is soft or heavy.
I have no idea what the going will be on Saturday at Chester, but the course is in a dip and nearby Haydock is soft today…
So you'll remember that previously that we said that the bias is significant and profitable at distances that start on a bend https://dailypunt.com/chester-draw-bias-2/
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But the sample size will be too small if I restrict the data to just the most profitable distances.
So everything below is data for all distances.
First off here are the stats for stalls 1 and 2 for different going.
Good to Firm is significant but we aren't going to get that tomorrow, so we'll look at that another day.
The strike rate for Heavy is huge at 26% but a very small sample.
If we break the Heavy runs down by stall. IE the above was stalls 1 and 2. This table shows the breakdown between 1 and 2.
That might not look significant because of the low volume of runs, but if we look at the soft table for stalls 1 and 2, we see the stall 2 strike rate is higher again.
So in summary very small data sets here (last 11 years) but I'm thinking when the going is Soft or Heavy I'll be thinking about Stall 2 runners more than Stall 1.
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