Tag Archives: claimer

Nick Hardman Free Racing Tips

It’s Friday and here’s Nick Hardman from the Betting School Insiders Club.
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We had another terrific Friday last week courtesy of Nicky Henderson’s hurdlers and he rattled up a hat-trick across the cards with winners at 6/1, 4/1 and 9/4. With Chepstow abandoned and nothing making any appeal at Musselburgh, we turn out attention back to the AW and some qualifiers from the systems we are road testing over at the Betting School Insiders Club which are ticking over nicely.

There are no qualifiers from Lingfield but we have a few from the evening card at Wolverhampton below:

5.15pm Solar Deity & Linton
5.45pm Harwoods Star
6.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45 Go Packing Go & Sciustree

Solar Deity looks to have a good chance to get off the mark in 2015 after a string of placed efforts. He is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival on official ratings but is well-in under these weights. He rates a solid bet and I expect him to shorten so take the best morning price with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker.

Stablemate Linton needs to recapture the form that saw him win plenty of races in Australia and compete in a pair of Listed races on the flat last year. I would be as surprised as anyone if Linton were to take this from his stablemate but he is one that may tempt the each-way backers at a price.

Harwoods Star got turned over at 4/9 on his last start but has a chance of making amends here back up in trip and with7lb claimer Aaron Jones back on board. The yard are in excellent form too so he is worth another chance.

The same trainer and jockey team up on Little Lord Nelson in the next and he also has decent chance on handicap debut. The final race will most likely see Charlie Appleby’s New Approach colt Symbolic Star go off a warm order. If he takes a chunk out of the market that could see our two qualifiers go off at an each-way price.

Sciustree is related to plenty of winners and was 6th of 12 on debut and should improve for that experience. Go Packing Go is also well related and makes her debut here.

Saturday’s feature race is the Clarence House Chase which sees the return of the mighty Sprinter Sacre. I for one will be hoping he doesn’t just win this, but wins in the manner of a horse that totally dismisses his rivals. Racing needs superstars and we want this one back. With that in mind it is a watching race and not a betting race for me.

For a selection on Saturday I have run the rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock from a trends perspective.

We have a shortlist of 4 qualifiers in Vintage Star, Benbens, Amigo and Toby Lerone. Benbens had Amigo some 20 lengths behind in the Welsh National and I cannot see any reason why Amigo should turn the tables here.

Toby Lerone put in a career best last time when finishing second to Broadway Buffalo in the Tommy Whittle Chase at this venue. He is up 6lbs for that and could still be improving. That was on heavy ground too, which he will likely get again on Saturday.

Vintage Star is 4lbs lower than when runner-up in this race last year. He is also back down to his last winning mark that saw him win a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on heavy ground over 3m 1f.

He has not performed that well in 3 starts this season but he has yet to see really testing ground which he may well get on Saturday. Trainer Suzy Smith has an excellent record in the race having trained 2 winners, a runner-up and two third placed finishers since 2000.

It’s a leap of faith but I am willing to make him one of my selections from the shortlist in the hope this is a true test of stamina.

I am torn between Benbens and Toby Lerone for my second selection but I will side with Benbens as the father & son Twiston-Davies combination has been in fine form recently. In addition he was travelling as well as anything in the Welsh National until running out of gas about three flights from home. Back down in trip I think he can go well.

Saturday Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Star e/w
Benbens e/w

The one runner who does interest me on Saturday’s cards is super-tough mare Carole’s Spirit in the Mare’s Hurdle race at Ascot.

A winner of 4 of her 5 starts her only defeat came at the hands of Highland Retreat who has gone on to be an exciting novice chaser for Harry Fry.

Against her own sex and proven over track, trip and ground I expect her to go very close.

Saturday Ascot 1.50pm
Carole’s Spirit

Good Luck
Nick Hardman
Betting School Insiders Club

Henderson Hurdlers

So last week we looked at the Willie Mullins hurdlers and drilled down to see where the profit could be found.

Today I’m looking at Nicky Henderson who since January 1st 2013 has had a 23% strike rate with his hurdlers and you could have backed them all at industry SP and only lost 7% of your stakes.

So today I’m going to look at which jockeys do best on Henderson’s Hurdlers.

If we find anything interesting there then we will build on that later in the week.

Most of the rides go to Barry Geraghty but when Barry rides the return on investment gets worse dropping down to -9.5%.

Tony McCoy has taken 54 rides in the period and shows an amazing 44% strike rate for Nicky Henderson hurdlers and a return on investment of 20.19% which is also impressive, especially when you consider how many punters like to bet anything that AP rides.

The only other jockey showing a profit is new kid Nico de Boinville, you might remember he won the Coral Cup this year on Whisper when still a 5lb claimer.

His record for Nicky Henderson hurdlers is 34% strike rate and a whopping 97% return on investment, from 38 runs.

Later in the week we’ll look at courses for these horses, we’ll also take a closer look at Nico de Boinville.

Today’s Selection

3.20 Wolverhampton – Sleep Walk – win bet 2/1 Betfair Book

Free TV Racing Tips

This week we have Saturday racing analysis and tips again from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders.

Before I hand over to Nick who has 9 free TV racing tips I just want to mention a service that has a discount offer that expires at the end of May which is midnight tonight.

Hawkeye Tips is a selective flat betting service that has had 11 selections this month with winners at 14/1, 11/1, 10/1 and 9/1 (advised prices).

You can do the math on that but it is a huge return on investment.

The discount price is £29.99 for 3 months or £99.99 for a year. These go up to £29.99 per month and £179.99 per year from tonight.

To get the discounted prices go to http://hawkeyetips.com

Over to Nick…

Last weekend we managed to pick out a couple of winners in Hot Streak and Slip Sliding Away and two placed horses in Kingsgate Native and Perfect Blessings. Unfortunately with all the rain that fell and the large number of withdrawals we were hit by some large reductions. This weekend I have picked out the best bets from across the cards at Chester, Haydock and York.

The Class 2 Handicap over 7f at Chester (3.05pm) looks a decent race and features a fair number of previous course winners.

Purcell was disappointing in the Victoria Cup when finishing well down the field but I expect him to bounce back here with the tight turns of the Roodee likely to suit and a plum draw in stall 2.

Purcell’s trainer, Andrew Balding, had 3 winners from 7 runners at the May meeting and has saddled 13 winners at the course in the last 2 years.

In the last 5 years his handicappers have won 14 races at the course (23% strike rate) and show a level stakes profit of 24pts. I am also happy to put up Deauville Prince as an each-way selection at 16/1 as he has every chance on his earlier form.

Rated 105 back in February after creditable performances in Group 3 races at Meydan and Longchamp, he races here off 100 with Jenny Powell taking off another 7lbs.

If he can get across from stall 5 he could well be leading around the home turn and, as he stays a mile, could still be there to fight out the finish.

Later on the card Andrew Balding runs Storm Force Ten in the 1m 4f Class 4 handicap. A winner at the May meeting he re-opposes the horse he beat by a head that day in Captain Morley.

He is 1lb worse off for a head victory but he has in-form jockey Oisin Murphy on board who takes off 3lb.

Captain Morley had a poor draw that day and ran well to get so close to the eventual winner. I think there is nothing to choose between the pair so I am happy to back both @9/2.

Over at York, the Listed 1m 6f race looks a fascinating contest. I do like the look of Alan King’s First Mohican but I would want better than the currently available 9/2 before getting involved.

Instead, two who can go well at an each-way price are top weight Renew and Shwaiman.

The latter ran well to finish 6th in the Chester Cup from stall 18 and could potentially be the biggest improver in the field.

Renew has a Listed victory at the back end of last season on his CV and was a creditable 4th in the Group 2 Jockey Club Stakes last time out, with winner Gospel Choir franking that form nicely.

Staying at York, the 5f Class 2 BetBright Trophy Handicap looks hugely competitive and it is difficult to rule out any of the runners with certainty.

Richard Fahey’s Alben Star is currently favourite but it should be noted that he has raced predominantly over 6f and his sole win over the minimum trip was on his racecourse debut.

His trainer also saddles El Viento who is back down to his last winning mark of 91 and gets further respite with a 5lb claimer on board.

Richard Fahey has said he does not think El Viento is an outsider and there is not much between his two runners.

With a nice high draw, a return to form would see him outrun his odds of 40/1.

At the other end of the market, Monsieur Joe is an out and out 5f specialist and has won 9 times at the distance. He won’t mind any ground condition having won on good to firm, soft and polytrack. He’s up 5lb for his latest win but looks in good form and should run another big race.

If Garswood runs anywhere close to his official rating he will win the Group 3 Timeform Jury Stakes at Haydock.

His seasonal reappearance effort casts enough doubt for me to look elsewhere and I think Breton Rock has as good a chance as any.

The C&D winner is 6 from 8 over 6f and 7f when racing on good to soft or worse. At 4 years old he is open to improvement and I will be hoping for plenty of cut in the ground having backed him @7/1.

Selections:

Chester 3.05pm: Purcell @4/1 and Deauville Prince @16/1 each-way (1/4 odds, 3 places Paddy Power)

Chester 5.15pm: Storm Force Ten @9/2 and Captain Morley @9/2

York 2.20pm: Renew @12/1 e/w (1/4 odds, 3places Bet365) and Shwaiman @18/1 e/w (1/5 odds, 3places BetVictor)

York 2.50: Monsiuer Joe @11/1 and El Viento @40/1 (1/4 odds, 4 places Ladbrokes)

Haydock 2.40: Breton Rock @7/1

Selling Profits

Following on from yesterday, today we are going to look at Selling races.

The difference between a Seller and a Claimer is that only the winner can be claimed in the form of an after race auction.

Sellers are regarded as the lowest type of race now that banded racing has bitten the dust and runners who take part in Sellers are often referred to as Platers.

Statistically there are a lot of similarities between Sellers and Claimers and although there are not so many races, once again it pays to stick to the 4yo plus races from a betting perspective.

Just over one in three races are won by the top weights and approximately seven of every 10 Sellers are won by runners from the top three in the weights.

Favourites win a third of all races and almost 80% of all winners come from the first three in the market.

Both statistically and numerically a recent run is advantageous, especially if a runner is returning within 21 days. (Approximately seven out of 10 winners).

Just under 50% of the runners finished in the first three LTO and be wary of any runner than finished outside of the first six LTO.

Only eight races of the 287 runners who came from Maidens won. The following trainers had a good record with their runners in Sellers:

Roy Brotherton Brian Ellison David Evans Dandy Nicholls Kevin Ryan Miss Gay Kellaway

Summary of runners in Sellers:

Look out for: Runners carrying 8 stone 7 pound or more, runners in the top three in the weights, runners in the top three in the market, runners aged 4yo and older, runners returning within 21 days, runners trained by Roy Brotherton, Brian Ellison, David Evans, Dandy Nicholls and Kevin Ryan and Gay Kellaway

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My thanks go to the Betting Insiders Club whose Race Classifications Report supplied a lot of the data for the above – Find out more about the Betting Insiders Club at http://bettinginsiders.com

Todays Selection courtesy of the Betting Insiders Club

Yesterday Simple Magic (adv 8/1 EW) finished 3rd beaten a couple of necks. The Racing Post noted that she may well have won had her rider not decided to switch inside and come with a run up the rail, where the ground looks to have been slowest at recent meetings.

For the opening day of Glorious Goodwood we turn to the dynamic duo of the 2yo division, Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes. In recent seasons they have teamed up to amazing success at this festival, especially with the juveniles. In his column for the Racing Post Hughes said “You won’t find many 2yo maidens with form as strong as Sacha Park” and that will do for us today.

Sacha Park (16.15 Good) Gen 7/4 Stan James, Corals etc

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