Tag Archives: correct score betting

Bet on Goals

I recently heard about this housewife gambler who is making good steady long term gains from football betting. Specifically betting on the over 2.5 goals market.

So I made contact with Louise and she agreed to write an article for us on why she bets in the over 2.5 goals market and why you should to.

Why You Should Consider Betting On Goals

Betting on the number of goals in a game allows you to win money without having to predict who will actually win the match. Typically that means betting over or under 2.5 goals at the outset of most games.

From a strategy point of view it is a style of betting that has both pros and cons, and a bet that will split the crowd amongst professional punters.

Some pros moan that it is hard enough predicting where the goals are likely to come from without worrying about how many goals you’ll see.

For people like me, looking at the number of goals produced per match is a much more reliable – and profitable – strategy than predicting who will score them.

I am a woman, clearly. I am a working mother of two and a maths graduate.

I can’t profess to be a football expert but what I do have though, is something that many so-called experts don’t have – a genuinely mathematical mind, and a degree to prove it.

My profitable betting, which I now share with my subscribers, takes advantage of the maths-based match analysis methods I have developed for use in the football goals betting markets – specifically Over 2.5 match goals.

What I like about this market is that, not only are goals ‘good’ from a predictive point of view but also that the bookmaker’s overround is less crippling than it is in other markets such as say 1X2, HT-FT or an antepost market like say the winner of The Grand National or The Champions League.

The overround is a very important concept in betting. It ensures bookies make a profit regardless of the outcome of an event and is the foundation of a bookie’s business. The concept bookmakers use to do this is simple, they offer all bettors lower odds than those they believe an outcome is truly worth. The overround is expressed as a percentage, with a 100% book representing a market where the bookmaker has no margin whatsoever. The higher the overround percentage is then the bigger profit is for the bookmakers. If the percentage goes below 100% then the bookmaker stands to lose money.

For example, if the over-round is 120% the bookmaker will expect to pay out £100 for every £120 pounds they take in, yielding them an expected profit of 20/120 = 16.7%.

With fixed odds for three possible outcomes in a football match bet – the home win, draw, and away win – a typical overround is between 107% to 112%. Indeed some Internet firms can go as high as 118% for games in obscure football leagues where they fear that individual punters can carry a far greater edge than their hard-pressed compilers.

As a rule of thumb, the greater the number of possible result permutations within a sporting event (or within one of its constituent parts, such as a scoreline), then the greater the bookmaker's overround will be.

A correct score bet in football can have as many as 24 possible options on which to bet. A typical overround for this type of bet may be anything from 130%-160%, depending on the bookmaker. You’d probably find something similar in a competitive big field horse race such as The Grand National.

In contrast to correct score betting, total goals betting in football, where there are only two possible outcomes (over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals), attracts overrounds that are commonly less than 110% and sometimes as low as 102% for a Premiership game, say, where the bookies are actively looking to attract a high volume of business.

The name of the game in betting is to minimise the bookmakers’ advantage at all times while playing up the impact of the things that are in your favour whether that’s stats, a value model like mine, or local knowledge about teams and players that can impact on a result.

With that in mind betting opportunities with just two potential outcomes are always worth looking at as both the strike rate and potential returns can be excellent for those with a demonstrable edge.

If you can get your head around betting on goals then the over 2.5 goals market is absolutely one of the best betting opportunities that currently exists.

Louise' Soccer Tips service has a number of selections for this weekends footy action and I have included one for you here…

League – England Premier
Kick Off Time – Saturday 1st November 12:45
Teams & Selection – Newcastle v Liverpool OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.78 Betvictor Pinnacle – 1.76 Marathonbet 188Bet – 1.73 Bet365 Sbobet Boylesports
Stake – 1.5pts
Oddsportal Link
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the true odds price to be around 1.60

To join Soccer Tips or to find out more about Louise and her service go to www.soccer-tip.co.uk

Today's Selection

2.40 Stratford Summer Storm – win bet – 13/8 Boylesports

Profit From the Odds That Produce Goals

Today we have a guest article from Clive Keeling of What Really Wins Money.

If you have something interesting or profitable that you would like to share with readers of the Daily Punt, do send us an email, we are always willing to share winning ideas with our readers.

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The next time you peruse the football betting coupon, pay close attention to the odds. They can sometimes tell a story and provide ready-made clues as to what the bookmakers (or market-makers at Betfair) expect to occur in a given match.

Here are some odds which I have found to produce certain scorelines, or a certain number of goals:

Sub 1.20

1.2 in decimal odds equates to 1/5 in fractional odds.

Any team quoted at under 1.2 in odds (particularly when they are playing at home) equates to goals. (The team will usually score 3 or 4 goals minimum, with a possibility of a win to nil.)

Using a recent weekend, here are some examples of Sub 1.2 odds matches and their resultant score lines.

2.30pm – Dortmund v G Furth – 1.19 home

Correct Score Betting

In this instance, the odds were close. Dortmund did score 3 goals but their opponents managed a consolation goal.

5.30pm – Olympiakos v Kerkira – 1.18 home

Football Betting

Here the 3 goals minimum was nearly reached, but Olympiakos did keep a clean sheet.

6.45pm – Ajax v VVV – 1.13 home

Football fixed odds

Another 2-0 match and another clean sheet.

7pm – Barcelona v Zaragoza – 1.1 home

Over under 2.5

Barcelona scored 3 goals minimum, but did concede a consolation goal.

9pm – Real Madrid v Ath Bilbao – 1.17 home

Match Odds

Real Madrid scored 5 goals, and did concede just 1 goal.

These odds give you a framework – a guide around which to work. The simplest way to validate the odds is to look at the head-to-heads. I want to show you the head-to-heads of the two teams which won 2-0.

Olympiakos head-to-heads v Kerkyra – last six matches:

08.04.2012 D1Olympiakos Pireus 0-1 AO Kerkyra
11.12.2011    D1AO Kerkyra 0-4 Olympiakos Pireus
09.01.2011  D1AO Kerkyra 0-2 Olympiakos Pireus
11.09.2010  D1Olympiakos Pireus 2-0 AO Kerkyra
22.04.2007 D1Olympiakos Pireus 3-1 AO Kerkyra
02.12.2006 D1AO Kerkyra 0-2 Olympiakos Pireus

The clean sheet looks a distinct possibility from the head-to-heads, but Olympiakos have won 2-0 three
times in the last six head-to-heads.

Ajax head-to-heads v Venlo – last six matches:

02.05.2012 D1AFC Ajax 2-0 VVV Venlo
21.08.2011 D1VVV Venlo 2-2 AFC Ajax
20.02.2011 D1AFC Ajax 1-0 VVV Venlo
28.11.2010 D1VVV Venlo 0-2 AFC Ajax
11.04.2010 D1AFC Ajax 7-0 VVV Venlo
20.09.2009 D1VVV Venlo 0-4 AFC Ajax

In the last four head-to-heads, Ajax have only managed to score a maximum of 2 goals.

Compare this with the likes of Real Madrid in their last six meetings against Athletic Bilbao:

02.05.2012 D1Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid
22.01.2012 D1Real Madrid 4-1 Athletic Bilbao
09.04.2011 D1Athletic Bilbao 0-3 Real Madrid
20.11.2010 D1Real Madrid 5-1 Athletic Bilbao
08.05.2010 D1Real Madrid 5-1 Athletic Bilbao
16.01.2010 D1Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Real Madrid

Historically, Real Madrid have scored 5-5-3-4-3 against Ath Bilbao. This is very much in keeping with a quote of 1.17 isn’t it?

So what do you do to make money from this information?

Once you have shortlisted sub 1.20 teams, and validated simply by looking at head-to-heads, then look to find a value bet. Value bets in these instances can include any of the following:

✓✓ Over 4.5 goals, with one eye on trading.

✓✓ The possibility for a player to score a hat-trick (I would limit myself to teams with world-class strikers such as Van Persie, Messi and Ronaldo).

✓✓ Dutching a correct score. Look to start at 3-0.

These correct scores are decently priced, which means you can back up to 3 and still profit.

✓✓ Total goals bet for one team. This is a fairly new market but the odds offered are far more attractive
than the match odds.

This second set of odds usually results in both teams scoring and a possible tight win. The odds in question in this second example are 1.7 (or 4/5 in fractional odds) for the away team.

When you spot these odds for the away side, immediately think:

✓✓ Score draw, most probably 1-1

✓✓ The possibility that if the away side wins, it will be a tight one-goal win: 1-2; 0-1 – that kind of
scoreline. Or a possibility that the home side could win, again by a very, very tight scoreline.

You will recall that these were the kinds of odds I used to create my treble bets, which I then layed at Betfair using their multiples.

Here are some examples:

9.30am – Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod v Spartak Moscow – 1.67 away

Football multiples

Both sides scored and 1-1 resulted. The odds here just peeked below 1.7.

3pm – Reading v Everton – 1.86 away

Football betting

Again, both teams score in this match and Reading only win courtesy of a penalty: another tight match.

3pm – West Brom v Chelsea – 2.04 away

Football Pools

In this match, both teams scored and the home side won a very tight match indeed.

The away odds between 1.7 and just over evens (2.0 decimal) seem to be the ideal odds in which to assume that both sides have a chance of scoring a goal and winning, ideally by 2-1 or 1-2.

How can you profit here?

How about backing 1-1 pre-match, and profiting by trading if a 1-1 arises during the match. Laying the
away side is always an option. Horse racing layers would be delighted at an ability to lay a horse as low as 1.7–2.00 and have a good chance of success.

Why not back both sides to score? Or for you traders, lay the team that scores first? The hope here, of course, is that we reach a 1-1 scoreline rather than a 2-0. And how about those who still play the bookies’ football coupons and the Pools, where score draws are welcome?

Incidentally, for those of you interested in the Football Pools, they now have a dedicated website at http://www.footballpools.com. This is something that piques my interest and I’ll be trying to discover some strategies we can use to profit from this new-look Football Pools.

Today's Selection

Chepstow 1.55 Always Bold – eachway bet – 7/1 Will Hill

Football Profits

What a summer we have in store.

Our first treat is the Euro Championships.

I will be betting a few different strategies, including the correct score trading I mentioned a couple of weeks ago.

One of my banker methods will be a system that was created during the World Cup back in 2010.

During the World Cup the guys on the Betfair forum has a little competition to see who could make the most profit fron correct score betting.

The guy who won it by a country mile used a system that he has created just prior, for his own use.

That system caused a bit of a stir and went on sale in the autumn of 2010 and has been making regular profits ever since.

I'm banking on that 2 year winning run continuing through the Euro's.

The system is called Scoring For Profit and you can get a copy here.

Today's Selection is from Carl Nicholson

7.40 Ripon Takealookatmenow 1pt win @ 12`1 Ladbrokes B.O.G

 

The Correct Score Is!

The two main betting events in the UK are Horse Racing and Football, today we are going to talk about football and more specifically correct score betting.

If you bet in the Betfair football markets you will know that they run with some pretty tight margins and value is not easy to find.

But one market that does contain regular value bets is the correct score market, this is because certain scores are over bet and bookmaker shenanigans can create a false price around some scores.

So if you are hunting for value consider betting one or more correct score outcomes.

You will likely get some value bets, whether it will add to your enjoyment of watching the match is another matter.

Many a time I've been egging on a team to score one goal, only for that to happen which is swiftly followed by me willing them to not score anymore 😮

If you need some help with your correct score strategy try Scoring For Profit which is a betting system that concentrates on the correct score meerket.

Todays Tip

Plumpton 2.00 Ransson, we think this is a big price, if 8 go to post then we'll go each way otherwise a straight win will be the order of the day  Result – Lost

 

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