Tag Archives: early prices

Malcolm Pett System Development

Today we have our regular column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Following on from last weeks article where we looked at the idea of selecting between two and ten selections a day and then seeing how good we are at getting winners.

After thinking about this for a while I decided I would try something a little different and select runners who at around 5 in the morning, were ranked 2nd according to Betfair's early prices.

Now I know this is probably a strange way of doing things and I knew I was going to get caught out by information appearing later that could change the ranking.

But as with all ideas you need somewhere to start.

I then had to filter out runners based on their current and past form.

But I didn’t go crazy I just used three key pointers that I thought from experience would help.

Here are the selections and results.


The original idea I had was, that I would then take these selections and look a bit deeper at the form and decide whether to use them or not.

I was also hoping that I would get at least 5 selections a day to use in order to this.

But actually that isn’t the way it worked out.

Some days there can be 5 or 6 selections but on others there is only 1 or even none at all.

Of course the easiest thing I could do is change the actual selection criteria…

…But on further study I think I am getting roughly around 24% to 28% strike rate which for a pretty simple selection process is, I think, pretty good.

One of the filters I have used (which I must admit I haven’t used very often in the past) is “Unexposed” horses.

I haven’t been very scientific about it…I have just filtered out horses that have had more than x (x being my secret number) runs.

It just appears the number I have chosen helps with finding winners.

I am also only using selections where the horse has run recently.

As with all systems getting a consistent strike rate is only half the story…

…Getting winning prices that cover your losses and make you a profit is the other half.

A 24% strike rate means I have to get average winning odds of 3.15 just to break even.

Saying all that…The selections haven’t done too well so far this month with only 1 winner from 12.

So it will be interesting to see if they pick up.

You can follow along with this test here.


Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

Towcester 3.10 Leaderofthedance – win bet 3/1 Bet 365

Beat The Odds and you Will Profit

Sometimes in life we need to remind ourselves of the fundamentals of whatever we are striving to be successful with in order to get our ship back on course.

With betting the biggest fundamental is value and the easiest way to make money from betting is to make your bets at odds that are better than starting price.

And beat starting price when it is adjusted down for a true market IE the prices make up a 100% chance when all possible outcomes are added up.

Starting price, especially these days with the betting exchange markets is an easy and reasonably reliable indicator of the true price/chance for any runner.

And the easiest and most efficient way to do that these days is to beat Betfair SP.

Betfair SP makes up to 100% and the prices are fair to both backers and layers.

If you can beat the Betfair SP consistently then you will make a profit.

There are tipping services that base their whole selection criteria around betting on horses that are showing signs that they will shorten in price from the morning bookie price to the starting price.

Although that is a winning strategy in itself, a better strategy is to study form and make your own selections, determine your own prices and bet where the early prices are bigger than your assessment.

That can be hard work though and you may want somebody to tell you what to bet to beat the market and if you want to be a winner without the work I would recommend Rory and David of the http://racingconsultants.co.uk

These guys are regularly beating Betfair starting price and consequently they make steady and consistent profits.

They also give a full analysis of every bet they give so you know exactly why they have made each bet.

http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

7.40 Windsor L´Orfeo – win bet – 2/1 Ladbrokes

Big Big Winning Factor

Have you noticed that a lot of tipsters have had a rough patch in the last week or so?

Maybe your own selection methods have taken a turn for the worst?

The reason is plain for all to see!

It is the changeable weather. With scorching sun one moment and thunder storms and flooding the next.

The fact is that when the going is softer than Good that the chances of many horses change and so we get surprises in the results.

Here's a simple example I pulled out of Horse Race Base.

I looked at horses running in UK Flat races on Turf.

And then I chose Stall 1 runners, just so I only looked at one horse per race and I looked at races where the going was Good to Soft or Soft.

I then looked at horses that had one win on the going compared to horses that hadn't won on the going.

You can see from the table that a Going Win bumps the strike rate up from 12% to 14% and takes the Return on Investment from -13.74 % to a small profit, 0.14%.

Horses with Going Win

Now obviously that system is not going to make us rich, but I bet that at early prices or even Betfair SP it would do a lot better than money in the bank.

What we need when the going gets, er, soft is a more sophisticated system than this.

What I'm using now is a system that can't be managed through a Database like HRB but which is finding huge winners and that's the Value Backing Weatherman system.

(Find out more about that here http://www.valuebacking.com/99-of-betting-systems-are-doomed/ )

Today's Selection

17:00:00 Lingfield Fort Berkeley – win bet – 5/1 Bet Victor

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