Malcolm Pett System Development

Today we have our regular column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Following on from last weeks article where we looked at the idea of selecting between two and ten selections a day and then seeing how good we are at getting winners.

After thinking about this for a while I decided I would try something a little different and select runners who at around 5 in the morning, were ranked 2nd according to Betfair's early prices.

Now I know this is probably a strange way of doing things and I knew I was going to get caught out by information appearing later that could change the ranking.

But as with all ideas you need somewhere to start.

I then had to filter out runners based on their current and past form.

But I didn’t go crazy I just used three key pointers that I thought from experience would help.

Here are the selections and results.


The original idea I had was, that I would then take these selections and look a bit deeper at the form and decide whether to use them or not.

I was also hoping that I would get at least 5 selections a day to use in order to this.

But actually that isn’t the way it worked out.

Some days there can be 5 or 6 selections but on others there is only 1 or even none at all.

Of course the easiest thing I could do is change the actual selection criteria…

…But on further study I think I am getting roughly around 24% to 28% strike rate which for a pretty simple selection process is, I think, pretty good.

One of the filters I have used (which I must admit I haven’t used very often in the past) is “Unexposed” horses.

I haven’t been very scientific about it…I have just filtered out horses that have had more than x (x being my secret number) runs.

It just appears the number I have chosen helps with finding winners.

I am also only using selections where the horse has run recently.

As with all systems getting a consistent strike rate is only half the story…

…Getting winning prices that cover your losses and make you a profit is the other half.

A 24% strike rate means I have to get average winning odds of 3.15 just to break even.

Saying all that…The selections haven’t done too well so far this month with only 1 winner from 12.

So it will be interesting to see if they pick up.

You can follow along with this test here.


Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

Towcester 3.10 Leaderofthedance – win bet 3/1 Bet 365

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