Today we have our regular column from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com
Following on from last weeks article where we looked at the idea of selecting between two and ten selections a day and then seeing how good we are at getting winners.
After thinking about this for a while I decided I would try something a little different and select runners who at around 5 in the morning, were ranked 2nd according to Betfair's early prices.
Now I know this is probably a strange way of doing things and I knew I was going to get caught out by information appearing later that could change the ranking.
But as with all ideas you need somewhere to start.
I then had to filter out runners based on their current and past form.
But I didn’t go crazy I just used three key pointers that I thought from experience would help.
The original idea I had was, that I would then take these selections and look a bit deeper at the form and decide whether to use them or not.
I was also hoping that I would get at least 5 selections a day to use in order to this.
But actually that isn’t the way it worked out.
Some days there can be 5 or 6 selections but on others there is only 1 or even none at all.
Of course the easiest thing I could do is change the actual selection criteria…
…But on further study I think I am getting roughly around 24% to 28% strike rate which for a pretty simple selection process is, I think, pretty good.
One of the filters I have used (which I must admit I haven’t used very often in the past) is “Unexposed” horses.
I haven’t been very scientific about it…I have just filtered out horses that have had more than x (x being my secret number) runs.
It just appears the number I have chosen helps with finding winners.
I am also only using selections where the horse has run recently.
As with all systems getting a consistent strike rate is only half the story…
…Getting winning prices that cover your losses and make you a profit is the other half.
A 24% strike rate means I have to get average winning odds of 3.15 just to break even.
Saying all that…The selections haven’t done too well so far this month with only 1 winner from 12.
So it will be interesting to see if they pick up.
Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.
Towcester 3.10 Leaderofthedance – win bet 3/1 Bet 365