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Big Priced Yankee

We're running a bit late with today's message and that's because one of the best tipsters online has some free tips to give away but I'm not allowed to tell you before 12:00.

If you haven't heard of Nicky Doyle he's a hot shot Irish tipster who tips for the big races both sides of the water.

He tops the tipster proofing tables at Race Advisor with Betfair SP profit of 123 points and 177 points profit at advised prices.

Nicky is getting ready for Cheltenham and would like to give you his selections for a big priced Cheltenham Yankee.

To get these selections as well as free tips for the Saturday big race every week.

And these free Saturday tips have proven to be highly profitable with 150 points made in 2014.

To get these free goodies just Click Here and register your email address.

Today's Selection

13:50 Towcester Dusky Legend – win bet – 11/8 Boylesports

Windsor Draw Bias?

Windsor Race CourseWe had a reader question in last week in response to one of the draw bias articles we published, so today I am going to try and answer that.

Here's the question…

Hi chaps,

I read your page every day.I was interested in the draw bias features you posted re Pontefract.

As a follow on does or is there a bias for all race tracks or just certain ones?

Just a query – note the card at Windsor tonight (16/06/2014).7 races and four winners from stall 9 at odds to sp of 5/1, 16/1, 16/1 and 9/2 £375 profit to £10 stakes.

For the record the winners in order came as follows –

Stall 9, 6, 11, 9, 9, 8, 9

All the best
James

Thanks James, a great question. I have a copy of the Value Backing paperback here, if you email the TGH Trading email address with your postal address I'll send it to you 🙂

(If any other readers have questions that result in an article published here or want to write an article themselves, I have other goodies to give away 😉

Is there a bias for all tracks, I would say no, not a repeatable consistent bias that we can make money from.

It's not in the best interest of the course to have a bias and if possible they will work to remove any bias that occurs.

Regarding a Windsor draw bias, I don't know if there is a bias, so let's look at some numbers to see if this is a one off anomaly or something we can profit from.

So the first thing I did was to look at the stall stats for Windsor over the last 10 years when 9 or more ran.

Obviously if I looked at all races the stats would be skewed towards the lower stalls when less than 9 ran.

Here's the results for all stalls…

Windsor Stall Stats 9 + Runners

Click to Enlarge

Nothing significant there, with a minimum of 9 runners you would expect stalls 1 – 9 to have similar strike rates and they do all being between 8 – 10%.

So next I looked at stall 9 broken down by number of runners in the race…

Windsor Stall 9 by number runners

Click to Enlarge

This is interesting and a little strange.

First off I see 8 runners races with stall 9 horses, so I guess this is where a horse is withdrawn, so I'm thinking we can say that where there were 9 horses declared to run then backing stall 9 is profitable.

Because looking at the above table we can see profit when 8 run and when 9 run and an increased strike rate.

What I'm thinking now is that there is a bias at Windsor and that maybe it is towards the highest stall in the race and that maybe in 8 runner races stall 8 has an advantage and in 7 runner races stall 7 etc.

So that's where I'm going to leave it for today, there is a meeting at Windsor on Saturday and I will write some more on this before then.

Today's Selection 

3.45 Beverley Gambol – eachway bet – 7/1 Paddy Power

Scoop 6 Roll Over – Free Entry

You will no doubt of heard that there is another huge rollover on the Scoop 6.

So what we've decided to do is to buy a ticket and share half the winnings should we be successful.

So here's how it's going to work out.

I will buy the ticket Saturday morning. I'm probably going to go with a 2x2x2x2x2x2 perm or maybe a 3x3x2x2x2x1 but we'll see how the selections look before I make a final decision.

I will then post the ticket on our Facebook page at https://www.facebook.com/Racingtips

If you want a share of the winnings you have to share that post to your wall before the first race on Saturday.

IE you share, which helps our Facebook page, we share our winnings 🙂

They say the win pool could be £6.5 Million so if we win £6,500,000 and 100 people share the the post then they'll each get £32,500.

Of course the chances of winning with a 72 line perm are quite slim and the chances of being the only winners are even slimmer.

But the cost of entry for you is zero, so that makes pretty good odds in my book.

Once you've shared the ticket you need to tell me.

The way to do that is to add your first name, last name and email address to the form below.

If we win half of the winnings will be shared with anybody that shared the Facebook post before the first race of the Scoop 6. (1.45 Newmarket)

So to recap…

Step 1: Share the Facebook post on your timeline

Step 2: enter your details below to get on the notification list




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