Windsor Draw Bias?

Windsor Race CourseWe had a reader question in last week in response to one of the draw bias articles we published, so today I am going to try and answer that.

Here's the question…

Hi chaps,

I read your page every day.I was interested in the draw bias features you posted re Pontefract.

As a follow on does or is there a bias for all race tracks or just certain ones?

Just a query – note the card at Windsor tonight (16/06/2014).7 races and four winners from stall 9 at odds to sp of 5/1, 16/1, 16/1 and 9/2 £375 profit to £10 stakes.

For the record the winners in order came as follows –

Stall 9, 6, 11, 9, 9, 8, 9

All the best
James

Thanks James, a great question. I have a copy of the Value Backing paperback here, if you email the TGH Trading email address with your postal address I'll send it to you 🙂

(If any other readers have questions that result in an article published here or want to write an article themselves, I have other goodies to give away 😉

Is there a bias for all tracks, I would say no, not a repeatable consistent bias that we can make money from.

It's not in the best interest of the course to have a bias and if possible they will work to remove any bias that occurs.

Regarding a Windsor draw bias, I don't know if there is a bias, so let's look at some numbers to see if this is a one off anomaly or something we can profit from.

So the first thing I did was to look at the stall stats for Windsor over the last 10 years when 9 or more ran.

Obviously if I looked at all races the stats would be skewed towards the lower stalls when less than 9 ran.

Here's the results for all stalls…

Windsor Stall Stats 9 + Runners

Click to Enlarge

Nothing significant there, with a minimum of 9 runners you would expect stalls 1 – 9 to have similar strike rates and they do all being between 8 – 10%.

So next I looked at stall 9 broken down by number of runners in the race…

Windsor Stall 9 by number runners

Click to Enlarge

This is interesting and a little strange.

First off I see 8 runners races with stall 9 horses, so I guess this is where a horse is withdrawn, so I'm thinking we can say that where there were 9 horses declared to run then backing stall 9 is profitable.

Because looking at the above table we can see profit when 8 run and when 9 run and an increased strike rate.

What I'm thinking now is that there is a bias at Windsor and that maybe it is towards the highest stall in the race and that maybe in 8 runner races stall 8 has an advantage and in 7 runner races stall 7 etc.

So that's where I'm going to leave it for today, there is a meeting at Windsor on Saturday and I will write some more on this before then.

Today's Selection 

3.45 Beverley Gambol – eachway bet – 7/1 Paddy Power

One Response to Windsor Draw Bias?

  1. Jim says:

    Windsor is a figure of 8 course so the longer races have a lot of turning to do. The shorter races also have a bend but that may well give the same sort of bias that all short race courses with a bend have – not done any research but it seems inevitable that for sprints, a bend will benefit the ones drawn on the inside of the bend.

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