Here's the question…
I read your page every day.I was interested in the draw bias features you posted re Pontefract.
As a follow on does or is there a bias for all race tracks or just certain ones?
Just a query – note the card at Windsor tonight (16/06/2014).7 races and four winners from stall 9 at odds to sp of 5/1, 16/1, 16/1 and 9/2 £375 profit to £10 stakes.
For the record the winners in order came as follows –
Stall 9, 6, 11, 9, 9, 8, 9
All the best
Thanks James, a great question. I have a copy of the Value Backing paperback here, if you email the TGH Trading email address with your postal address I'll send it to you 🙂
(If any other readers have questions that result in an article published here or want to write an article themselves, I have other goodies to give away 😉
Is there a bias for all tracks, I would say no, not a repeatable consistent bias that we can make money from.
It's not in the best interest of the course to have a bias and if possible they will work to remove any bias that occurs.
Regarding a Windsor draw bias, I don't know if there is a bias, so let's look at some numbers to see if this is a one off anomaly or something we can profit from.
So the first thing I did was to look at the stall stats for Windsor over the last 10 years when 9 or more ran.
Obviously if I looked at all races the stats would be skewed towards the lower stalls when less than 9 ran.
Here's the results for all stalls…
Nothing significant there, with a minimum of 9 runners you would expect stalls 1 – 9 to have similar strike rates and they do all being between 8 – 10%.
So next I looked at stall 9 broken down by number of runners in the race…
This is interesting and a little strange.
First off I see 8 runners races with stall 9 horses, so I guess this is where a horse is withdrawn, so I'm thinking we can say that where there were 9 horses declared to run then backing stall 9 is profitable.
Because looking at the above table we can see profit when 8 run and when 9 run and an increased strike rate.
What I'm thinking now is that there is a bias at Windsor and that maybe it is towards the highest stall in the race and that maybe in 8 runner races stall 8 has an advantage and in 7 runner races stall 7 etc.
So that's where I'm going to leave it for today, there is a meeting at Windsor on Saturday and I will write some more on this before then.
3.45 Beverley Gambol – eachway bet – 7/1 Paddy Power