Tag Archives: experts

Top Tips

Today I want to tell you about one of my favourite tipping teams at the moment.

This dynamic duo have just made 52 points profit in the past week, with six winning days from seven.

This weeks winners include…

Buddy Love – Won 7/2
Boruma – Won 9/1
Best Tamayuz – Won 9/4
Kerry Man – Won 7/1 (advised early at 20/1)
Chac du Cadran – Won 2/1
Flintham- Won 9/2
Aubusson- Won 9/1
Yasir – Won 16/1
American Life- Won 4/1

It's not like that all the time obviously, but the profit has been pretty consistent since they launched their tipping service in June this year.

June +57.53
July +18.97
August +6.02
Sept +53.84
Oct +7.51

The service is called Racing Consultants and relies on the joint expertise of David Massey and Rory Delargy.

You may have heard these guys sharing their expertise on Timeform radio and Will Hill radio.

These are form experts that know racing inside out and who get together each evening to go through the next day's race cards and find the value bets.

Their service is currently available at just £29.99 per month and is an absolute bargain and my current favourite service.

Full details here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

12:50:00 Ludlow Navanman – eachway bet – 14/1 Bet 365

Bet on Goals

I recently heard about this housewife gambler who is making good steady long term gains from football betting. Specifically betting on the over 2.5 goals market.

So I made contact with Louise and she agreed to write an article for us on why she bets in the over 2.5 goals market and why you should to.

Why You Should Consider Betting On Goals

Betting on the number of goals in a game allows you to win money without having to predict who will actually win the match. Typically that means betting over or under 2.5 goals at the outset of most games.

From a strategy point of view it is a style of betting that has both pros and cons, and a bet that will split the crowd amongst professional punters.

Some pros moan that it is hard enough predicting where the goals are likely to come from without worrying about how many goals you’ll see.

For people like me, looking at the number of goals produced per match is a much more reliable – and profitable – strategy than predicting who will score them.

I am a woman, clearly. I am a working mother of two and a maths graduate.

I can’t profess to be a football expert but what I do have though, is something that many so-called experts don’t have – a genuinely mathematical mind, and a degree to prove it.

My profitable betting, which I now share with my subscribers, takes advantage of the maths-based match analysis methods I have developed for use in the football goals betting markets – specifically Over 2.5 match goals.

What I like about this market is that, not only are goals ‘good’ from a predictive point of view but also that the bookmaker’s overround is less crippling than it is in other markets such as say 1X2, HT-FT or an antepost market like say the winner of The Grand National or The Champions League.

The overround is a very important concept in betting. It ensures bookies make a profit regardless of the outcome of an event and is the foundation of a bookie’s business. The concept bookmakers use to do this is simple, they offer all bettors lower odds than those they believe an outcome is truly worth. The overround is expressed as a percentage, with a 100% book representing a market where the bookmaker has no margin whatsoever. The higher the overround percentage is then the bigger profit is for the bookmakers. If the percentage goes below 100% then the bookmaker stands to lose money.

For example, if the over-round is 120% the bookmaker will expect to pay out £100 for every £120 pounds they take in, yielding them an expected profit of 20/120 = 16.7%.

With fixed odds for three possible outcomes in a football match bet – the home win, draw, and away win – a typical overround is between 107% to 112%. Indeed some Internet firms can go as high as 118% for games in obscure football leagues where they fear that individual punters can carry a far greater edge than their hard-pressed compilers.

As a rule of thumb, the greater the number of possible result permutations within a sporting event (or within one of its constituent parts, such as a scoreline), then the greater the bookmaker's overround will be.

A correct score bet in football can have as many as 24 possible options on which to bet. A typical overround for this type of bet may be anything from 130%-160%, depending on the bookmaker. You’d probably find something similar in a competitive big field horse race such as The Grand National.

In contrast to correct score betting, total goals betting in football, where there are only two possible outcomes (over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals), attracts overrounds that are commonly less than 110% and sometimes as low as 102% for a Premiership game, say, where the bookies are actively looking to attract a high volume of business.

The name of the game in betting is to minimise the bookmakers’ advantage at all times while playing up the impact of the things that are in your favour whether that’s stats, a value model like mine, or local knowledge about teams and players that can impact on a result.

With that in mind betting opportunities with just two potential outcomes are always worth looking at as both the strike rate and potential returns can be excellent for those with a demonstrable edge.

If you can get your head around betting on goals then the over 2.5 goals market is absolutely one of the best betting opportunities that currently exists.

Louise' Soccer Tips service has a number of selections for this weekends footy action and I have included one for you here…

League – England Premier
Kick Off Time – Saturday 1st November 12:45
Teams & Selection – Newcastle v Liverpool OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.78 Betvictor Pinnacle – 1.76 Marathonbet 188Bet – 1.73 Bet365 Sbobet Boylesports
Stake – 1.5pts
Oddsportal Link
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the true odds price to be around 1.60

To join Soccer Tips or to find out more about Louise and her service go to www.soccer-tip.co.uk

Today's Selection

2.40 Stratford Summer Storm – win bet – 13/8 Boylesports

Word from the Nerd

This weeks article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com sheds some light on the topic of value…

People are always talking about value when it comes to horse racing.

But for the average punter in the street it’s a bit of a mystery.

It sounds like one of those weird things that all the experts like to talk about among themselves, while keeping everyone else in the dark about what it actually is.

Well let’s see if we can shed light on the subject.

The obvious explanation for value is:

“A horse’s real chance of winning is better than the odds reflect.”

So a horse may have a current price of 4/1 but according to those in the know it should be 3/1.

All things being equal if you placed a bet on every horse where you found this discrepancy you should make a profit because the horse should win more often than the odds reflect.

But this is where for the average punter the problem lies.

How do you tell if a horse’s current price represents value?

Well that’s where the whole thing gets complicated.

It is really based around opinions and peoples different way’s of deciding if a horse has a better chance of winning, than the general view.

Most people try to work it out early so they can take a better price before the rest of the markets catch on.

Sometimes you can even see a difference between bookies and Betfair (which most people believe to represent a more accurate view of a horse’s true chance of winning).

But it still doesn’t help if you haven’t got a way of looking at each horse and deciding which one has the best chance of winning.

I always look at it from a system development point of view.

If I create a system that has a 25% strike rate then I need to get average winning odds of at least 4.00 to break even.

But I need better odds than that to make money.

But really that is all a system is…

It identifies horses that traditionally have odds higher (or better value) than the strike rate of the system points towards.

That’s why I always tell people… 

“Although there are lots of different statistics you can watch and monitor it is the strike rate and average winning odds that dictate if a system is profitable or not.”

So once you developed, purchase or find a system that you want to use, your only priority is to find the best price you can for each selection.

At the end of the day you can not control the strike rate of a system unless you “tweak” it (but then it becomes a new system) so your only chance to make profit is to work on the average winning price.

My own personal experience always leads me to Betfair because even after the 5% commission generally the prices are much better especially when you are not on the favourite.

Anyway I hope that goes some way to showing what value is.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
“The nerd”

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

Sandown 7.25 Prince of Stars – win bet – 9/4 Boylesports

Peter Marsh Chase Analysis

I've managed to bag a detailed analysis of the Peter Marsh Chase today.

I've also got the usual football tips, which you'll find further down the page.

So the analysis of the Peter Marsh Chase comes from David Massey who is a well respected voice in the world of Horse Racing and one of the experts who contributes to the Betting Insiders Club.

And it is the Betting Insiders Club who have kindly provided this analysis to us.

If you have a minute I'm sure it would help us secure similar material in the future if lots of readers clicked this link and visited their page this weekend 😉 ==> http://bettinginsiders.com

Peter Marsh Chase – Saturday 18th January, Haydock (3.15 Channel 4)

No great pattern in terms of the winners in the last few years, with weights ranging from 10-3 to 11-10. The McCains have won it twice in the last ten years and this often goes, as you’d expect to a Northern trainer who is adept with handicappers, although both Venetia Williams and David Pipe have gatecrashed the party in the past decade. Don’t be frightened of backing something at a price either – only one favourite has obliged in the last 10 years and there’s been 20-1 and 33-1 winners too. Only the 10 runners for tomorrow’s renewal but the fact it is 5-1 this morning tells you it is wide open.

Vino Griego (G Moore, 11-10, 10-1)

Bounced right back to form with victory over two higher rated rivals in the Future Stars at Sandown but handicapper has taken that at face value when perhaps he shouldn’t have and has given him a kicking to the tune of 8lb for winning it. But Rolling Aces simply didn’t stay after being given too positive a ride and Harry Topper came from a stable that was clearly sick at the time so he’s ended up almost winning by default. Whilst the ground is no issue, these fences might be (often gives one a belt) and off a new high handicap mark against some younger, improving horses, isn’t difficult to give the elbow too.

Katenko (V Williams, 11-8, 5-1)

Still the one horse in the field with pretensions of being more than a handicapper and let’s not forget how he destroyed future Paddy Power winner Johns Spirit about this time last year at Sandown, always in the front line, jumping well and staying on strongly to give him 3lb and a 9l beating. Was still travelling well in this years Hennessey when coming to grief at the 14th, and not difficult to think that the Aintree race simply came too soon for him after that. Been given time to recover since then, and with a staying test in the mud likely to prove up his street, has to go on the shortlist for a trainer that’s won this before.

The Minack (P Nicholls, 11-5, 10-1)

Not seen for two years but has won after a break before (although not this long) and a superb win record of 7-12 (very lightly raced for a 10-y-o). Won the 2011 Badger Ales after 7 months off, gamely holding off Meanus Dandy from the same yard, but his Ascot win afterwards shows you that the handicapper has given him a real chance today if he’s fit enough – he gave Vino Griego 15lb and a beating yet today gets 5lb from him (Reve De Sivola back in third and future National winner Neptune Collonges back in fourth – a solid looking piece of form). Whilst he’s never tackled heavy ground, he has no problem with genuinely soft ground, and with both Sydney Paget and Vintage Star in the field to ensure a good pace, should get the race run to suit. Not discounted by any means.

Chance Du Roy (P Hobbs, 10-10, 10-1)

Not for the first time found Aintree’s fences to his liking when winning the Becher Chase there early December and gets a fairly harsh 8lb for winning a length for that. That still leaves him on a mark he has won off before, but only once has he followed up after a win (back in 2010) and it might just have been that catching him fresh on a course he likes might have been the key. Has won at Haydock too, however, and with trainer in superb form isn’t totally dismissed, but he doesn’t make my shortlist.

Sydney Paget (D McCain, 10-9, 7-1)

Threw a stinker in at Wetherby last time (gave up pretty quickly when headed) but previous win here over C & D looks pretty decent at face value. However, dig a little deeper and not difficult to shoot a through holes through that form (it’s not really working out that well, was getting weight too) and even after a 3lb drop for the Wetherby effort he’s still 10lb higher than that win. Ground no problem but not difficult to see Vintage Star and Night Alliance giving him hassle mid-race, and could easily find things happening around him that aren’t to his liking again. Happy to swerve him at the price.

Vintage Star (S Smith, 10-8, 7-1)

Stable in good nick this week and not difficult to see this one running a good race either, being just 4lb higher than two good efforts in November, firstly beating Buddy Bolero at Carlisle (only fair form) but bettered that in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, narrowly going down to an on-song Hey Big Spender. Difficult to crab his effort in the Welsh National either, where he travelled well into the race but seemed to find the extended trip against him. No problem with this ground and still looks on a mark he can do some damage off. Could find himself some space behind the leader to do his own thing, and is shortlisted.

Merry King (J J O’Neill, 10-4, 5-1)

Not difficult to see why he’s near the front of the market as one that’s been running well in top class staying handicaps without getting near the front, and is probably still a few pounds in front of the handicapper. Visor goes on for the first time, but for me he’s not screamed out that he needs one, I don’t see him as lazy, so it will be interesting to see how he goes in it. Finished just in front of Vintage Star in the Welsh National but Vintage Star was put into the race much earlier and even on slightly worse terms I could see the form being reversed over the shorter trip. Trainer in very patchy form as well and looks underpriced to me. Races from 1lb out of the handicap.

Night Alliance (Dr R Newland, 10-4, 8-1)

Another trainer in superb form but handicapper has reacted very badly to his win here in the Tommy Whittle, raising him 13lb for it (effectively 16lb as he’s 3lb out of the handicap here.) The form of that looks okay, however, with second Loch Ba putting up a decent effort in the Betfred Classic last weekend and fourth Samstown narrowly defeated (albeit in lesser company) next time out. He is a pretty straightforward ride though, usually happy to sit midfield before making a mid-race move, and that’s a worry for me with Tom Scudamore on board. Not difficult to see a scenario where he gets involved in a duel with Sydney Paget for a while and expends too much energy, leaving little for the finish. That, plus the new mark, is enough to put me off him, just.

Wychwoods Brook (E Williams, 10-4, 16-1)

Racing from 7lb out of the handicap here, making an already difficult looking task even more so. Picked up long time leader Henry King with the minimum of fuss at Lingfield but that was a 0-120 over half a mile shorter so big questions to answer here off an 11lb higher mark. On the plus side is unexposed and breeding gives hope that he will stay, and seems a bit of a natural over the bigger obstacles but it’s surely asking too much at this stage of his career to take a competitive race such as this.

Valoroso (R Woollacott, 10-4, 16-1)

Another racing from well out of the handicap, being 8lb wrong here. Had the 6 jumps starts and fencing is far from perfect yet (a fall and a UR already on the card, and mistakes again last time) but will at least appreciate the likely good pace (can take a hold). Travelled well again at Kempton last time, not for the first time, but got worried out of it close home by the useful Ma Filleule. Looks all about staying and whilst it’s difficult to see him winning, he could represent some value on the exchanges as a back-to-lay option in running.

Conclusion

The shortlist of three is Vintage Star, Katenko and The Minack, and choosing between the three isn’t easy. The long lay off of The Minack is just, only just, enough to put me off so I’m having two win bets on KATENKO at 5-1, who could yet prove a cut above these, and a small saver on VINTAGE STAR, who is keeping his form well and with the stable in form, I can see him reversing form with Merry King over this trip.

Football Selections

We had another winning week with these football selections last week.

These are sponsored by The Alternative Punters Syndicate and you can get a full one month free trial of their racing and football tips – Click Here

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
SOUTHAMPTON
WIGAN
LEICESTER
LEYTON ORIENT
FALKIRK

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with… VCBet

 

 

 

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