factors Archives • Daily Punt

Tony McCoy OBE

Posted on November 13, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Following on from Monday's article today I'm going to look at some stats from Champion Jockey Tony McCoy.

By the way yesterdays eachway bet that placed second was from the system we created on Monday.

Ok, so backing all of Tony's mounts would as you'd expect returns a loss, but not as a big a loss as I expected at 15% of stakes lost.

If we break that down by race type we see that Hurdles perform best with an excellent 27% strike rate from all hurdle start and a loss of just 11%.

Tony McCoy by Race Type Table

At this stage of my research I was pondering where to go next and looking down the list of factors and say ‘Going'.

My first thought was that, that is a factor that depends more on the particular horse than the jockey, but then I pictured AP pumping away, driving a tired horse home and thought I bet he does better in Heavy going than other jocks. And he does.

Over the last two years backing all of McCoys Hurdle rides on Heavy going has produced a 25% ROI and a 31% strike rate.

However over the long term this strategy has been pretty much break even, so maybe something to keep in mind rather than to bet blindly.

For today I'm going to wrap up with a look at how he performs for different trainers.

My thoughts are that as I've said for previous jockeys that I would expect them to be a losing proposition for their own stable rides, just because they have to ride everything and that seems to be the case with Jonjo O Neill rides showing a loss.

The table below shows every Hurdle ride since January 1st 2013 and I've sorted it by ROI to help spot the trainers who make a profit when they book the real McCoy.

Today's Selection

2:00 Ludlow Sin Bin – win bet – 4/1 Bet Victor

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More Perth Profits?

Posted on September 25, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Our Gordon Elliott approach paid off again yesterday with two winners at 7/1 and 2/1 from 7 runners for a 4 point profit for a 57% return on the days investment.

Gordon Elliott has another 7 runners today, there are a couple of interesting factors that might effect your decision to bet.

First off Tico ran yesterday, started favourite and finished 23 lengths last.

The high level stats for all horses running in National Hunt races one day after their last race is 13% strike rate from 583 that have tried in the last 10 years.

The strike rate for Gordon Elliott trained runners that have run after one day is 23%.

The strike rate for horses that ran one day ago in a hurdle and today run in a chase is 20% with a 62% ROI.

Gordon Elliott has done this twice and one of those runners won.

Before I looked at the stats I was thinking I would drop Tico from my days bets, but having checked the numbers I think I'll leave him in.

The other runner that stands out is Crown Theatre at 40/1.

Gordon Elliott has had 18 runners at Perth that started at 22/1 or bigger, none have won!

Here is the full list of runners, so let's see if we can build on yesterdays profits…

14:45:00 Perth 2 Landau (IRE) – 11/2 Bet Victor
15:20:00 Perth 1 I C Gold (IRE) – 4/1 Bet Victor
15:20:00 Perth 3 Pumped Up Kicks (IRE) – 2/1 Sky Bet
15:55:00 Perth 3 Crown Theatre (IRE) – 40/1 Bet 365
17:00:00 Perth 2 Goal (IRE) – 4/1 Skybet
17:30:00 Perth 2 Tico (IRE) – 4/1 Sky Bet
18:00:00 Perth 4 Iffjack (IRE) – 8/1 Bet Victor

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Favourites That Win

Posted on September 17, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorse Bot.

You can try the Grey Horse Bot including the systems creator for just £17, go to http://greyhorsebot.com

Here's Malcolm…

Favourites That Win

As you are probably already know the chances of a favourite winning a race is around 34%.

That figure can be influenced by other factors like race type and price and can drop to around 27% or rise to over 50%.

So why would I mention favourites?

We know there is no value in following them.

So what about if we look elsewhere?

What’s the win averages of the other runners?

2nd priced favourits win 20% of the time
3rd priced favourits win 14% of the time
3rd priced favourits win 10% of the time

Again this is based around all race types and all prices.

This means that nearly 80% of all winning horses come from one of the top 4 priced runners in a race.

 ”Yeah I know all this” I hear you say…

In my last Daily punt article I talked about what I call “Nano” systems.

This is where you look for specific types of races where you may be able to find profit.

So here is another example you may want to check out.

Using the SPB System Builder I found a trend based around 6 year old horses in class 6 running at Southwell.

If they have won at Southwell before at the exact (exact) distance they are running at again and they are favourite…then they have won 54 of the last 100 (qualifying) races resulting in a BSP profit of 37.46 points.

The system also appears to work at Kempton and Wolves but not to the same extent as it seems to at Southwell.

So although blindly following favourites is not a profitable pastime there are places you can find that appear to show a return.

Finding high strike profitable trends is interesting but as you can see you have to be pretty specific about the runners you choose.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

2.20 Yarmouth Spiriting – win bet – 9/4 Bet 365, Paddy Power

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Exploiting Bookies Laziness

Posted on September 1, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

I'm back from rainy Scotland refreshed and rearing to go (ish).

Hopefully everything ran smoothly in my absence and I see that Gary gave some winners and made a good profit for those that got the prices.

I'm not fully up to speed with everything yet having only just got back into the office a couple of hours ago, so was struggling a bit for what to write.

So I started reading and found an excellent article in the Betting School Insiders Report about how bookmakers methods have changed over the years and how they currently create their early prices.

And more importantly how to exploit this.

Exploiting Bookies Laziness

In a nutshell, it goes like this…

In the old days they had in house expertise, sharp minds to create their odds lines and more importantly these sharp minds knew what to watch out for with regards to changes in conditions and shrewd money coming in.

These odds compilers took on the big bettors in a battle of whits and guile.

These days Mr Bookmaker is focusing on his easy money, from slots, virtual racing and games of chance. All activities with a guaranteed edge and guaranteed profit for Mr B.

So he gets his early prices from an outside supplier!

This is all well and good, but the tissue prices come in 24 hours ahead of racing.

This means that any changes that occur in the 24 hours leading up to the race are not accounted for, and bookmakers are not smart at adjusting for changing factors accurately.

Because? Because they didnt create the prices in the first place so they dont know how much emphasis has been placed on any given factor, or what importance any change may have.

The article is written by the highly respected Rory Delargy of http://racingconsultants.co.uk and is a real eye opener.

If you're not yet a Betting School Insiders member, if you join in the next few days you can read this article before the next issue comes out – go here http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Today's Selection

Leicester 3.40 White Vin Jan – win bet – 4/1 Boylesports

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Tag Archives: factors

Tony McCoy OBE

More Perth Profits?

Favourites That Win

Exploiting Bookies Laziness