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Nick Hardman Free Racing Tips

It's Friday and here's Nick Hardman from the Betting School Insiders Club.
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We had another terrific Friday last week courtesy of Nicky Henderson’s hurdlers and he rattled up a hat-trick across the cards with winners at 6/1, 4/1 and 9/4. With Chepstow abandoned and nothing making any appeal at Musselburgh, we turn out attention back to the AW and some qualifiers from the systems we are road testing over at the Betting School Insiders Club which are ticking over nicely.

There are no qualifiers from Lingfield but we have a few from the evening card at Wolverhampton below:

5.15pm Solar Deity & Linton
5.45pm Harwoods Star
6.15pm Little Lord Nelson
6.45 Go Packing Go & Sciustree

Solar Deity looks to have a good chance to get off the mark in 2015 after a string of placed efforts. He is rated 6lbs higher than his nearest rival on official ratings but is well-in under these weights. He rates a solid bet and I expect him to shorten so take the best morning price with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker.

Stablemate Linton needs to recapture the form that saw him win plenty of races in Australia and compete in a pair of Listed races on the flat last year. I would be as surprised as anyone if Linton were to take this from his stablemate but he is one that may tempt the each-way backers at a price.

Harwoods Star got turned over at 4/9 on his last start but has a chance of making amends here back up in trip and with7lb claimer Aaron Jones back on board. The yard are in excellent form too so he is worth another chance.

The same trainer and jockey team up on Little Lord Nelson in the next and he also has decent chance on handicap debut. The final race will most likely see Charlie Appleby’s New Approach colt Symbolic Star go off a warm order. If he takes a chunk out of the market that could see our two qualifiers go off at an each-way price.

Sciustree is related to plenty of winners and was 6th of 12 on debut and should improve for that experience. Go Packing Go is also well related and makes her debut here.

Saturday’s feature race is the Clarence House Chase which sees the return of the mighty Sprinter Sacre. I for one will be hoping he doesn’t just win this, but wins in the manner of a horse that totally dismisses his rivals. Racing needs superstars and we want this one back. With that in mind it is a watching race and not a betting race for me.

For a selection on Saturday I have run the rule over the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock from a trends perspective.

We have a shortlist of 4 qualifiers in Vintage Star, Benbens, Amigo and Toby Lerone. Benbens had Amigo some 20 lengths behind in the Welsh National and I cannot see any reason why Amigo should turn the tables here.

Toby Lerone put in a career best last time when finishing second to Broadway Buffalo in the Tommy Whittle Chase at this venue. He is up 6lbs for that and could still be improving. That was on heavy ground too, which he will likely get again on Saturday.

Vintage Star is 4lbs lower than when runner-up in this race last year. He is also back down to his last winning mark that saw him win a Graduation Chase at Carlisle on heavy ground over 3m 1f.

He has not performed that well in 3 starts this season but he has yet to see really testing ground which he may well get on Saturday. Trainer Suzy Smith has an excellent record in the race having trained 2 winners, a runner-up and two third placed finishers since 2000.

It’s a leap of faith but I am willing to make him one of my selections from the shortlist in the hope this is a true test of stamina.

I am torn between Benbens and Toby Lerone for my second selection but I will side with Benbens as the father & son Twiston-Davies combination has been in fine form recently. In addition he was travelling as well as anything in the Welsh National until running out of gas about three flights from home. Back down in trip I think he can go well.

Saturday Haydock 3.15pm
Vintage Star e/w
Benbens e/w

The one runner who does interest me on Saturday’s cards is super-tough mare Carole’s Spirit in the Mare’s Hurdle race at Ascot.

A winner of 4 of her 5 starts her only defeat came at the hands of Highland Retreat who has gone on to be an exciting novice chaser for Harry Fry.

Against her own sex and proven over track, trip and ground I expect her to go very close.

Saturday Ascot 1.50pm
Carole’s Spirit

Good Luck
Nick Hardman
Betting School Insiders Club

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Sire System 61% ROI

There are many ways to approach racing and winning from betting and no best way.

But you are likely to be more profitable though if you use an approach that the majority don't use.

One such approach that the man in the street tends not to pay attention to, unless it is called out by somebody in the media is betting on the influence of the sire.

But characteristics and preferences are passed from father to foal and knowing the inbred preferences of a horse can help us find winners.

So today I have the results of some research into one such angle which will hopefully identify some winners for us over the coming weeks.

The sire we are looking at today is Teofilo(IRE).

What I've targeted today is the All Weather runners of the Teofilo progeny.

With any angle the most profit will come from runs made before the horse and it's ability is exposed so we are looking at 2 and 3 year olds in their first 5 runs.

The preferred distance is 7 furlongs or 1 mile.

And we are only betting on standard going which prevails 99% of the time.

So they are the rules and the results for the last 4 years, which is when we first started seeing qualifiers is…

Runs = 82

Wins = 18

Strike Rate = 21.95%

Profit at iSP = + 50.56

Return on Investment = 61.54%

Those figures jump up if we exclude the first year. Looking at just 2012 – 2014 then there is profit in each year with an ROI of 86.93%.

These breakdown to…

2012 ROI = 96%

2013 ROI = 78%

2014 ROI = 66%

Looking at the individual courses there has been no profit at Dundalk or Wolverhampton.

Most of the runs have been at southern tracks (Lingfield, Kempton) so it may be that rather than these runners having no preference for the northern tracks it may just be a case of where the majority of the progeny are based currently.

Do you follow any sire systems or use sire influences in your selection process, if so and you'd like to share them then please add a comment.

Today's Selection

Catterick 4.20 Georgian Firebird – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

 

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Football and Racing Weekend Tips

Football Bets (Don't forget your free Sky Super 6 entry £1/4 Million prize this week – Click Here)

We had another profit from the football bets last week, but it's been a while since we've had a full house and hit the jackpot. Hopefully this week.

Don't forget you can get all the TAPS football tips and all their daily racing tips on a one month free trial – Click Here.

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

ARSENAL
LIVERPOOL
QPR
BRENTFORD
RANGERS

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with… Coral

Lay Debutants

12:25:00 Fairyhouse 18 All Hell Let Loose (IRE)
15:25:00 Towcester 6 Mister Carrot
15:25:00 Towcester 7 Nightline
15:40:00 Fairyhouse 4 Danesfort
15:45:00 Bangor 5 Mighty Minnie

Lay Handicap

13:45:00 Towcester 9 Alfie Alexander (IRE)
13:45:00 Towcester 6 DArgent Cloud
13:45:00 Towcester 4 Oak Wood (IRE)

Today's Selections

3.00 Newbury Our Father – each way bet – 12/1 Bet 365, Bet Victor

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Pro Football Gambler – Other Factors

Goran Trpevski is a former professional footballer who has his own well established tipping service. It is again in profit this season and today he gives some advice on other factors you may need to consider

Before I hand over to Goran today I just want to mention that there has been a problem with the sign up page for the discount offer for Daily Punt readers. Apparently the page has been showing up in Spanish for some visitors. This should be fixed now.

The offer for our readers is just 9 Euros (about £7) for 2 weeks access, during that 2 weeks you will get all of Goran's selections as well as his in play trades.

This is a serious service for people who are serious about profiting from betting. Click Here

Here's Goran's final article…

Have it in mind that soon we will reach a point where the weather will play some part in the games, a big part in some cases, especially if you bet in the lower leagues around Europe.

Bad weather equals a bad pitch which in turn means chances are harder to create and this means fewer shots on goal and finally fewer goals.

I always follow the Balkan leagues, as I am based here, and I don’t mind driving to any game as long as I have the time and if there are no bigger European games on that day. I saw a game a few weeks back where the under 2.5 goals price was 2.10. When I saw that pitch I thought three goals here is impossible. No way in a million years.

What I am really saying is be aware of the weather.

A normal over game might easily go under as the conditions may be very bad. The rain soaked Parma v Roma game earlier this season had 5 goals in it as Roma are clueless at defending but normally a combination of that rain and that pitch would have killed the chances to score.

Another example this season was Freiburg v Dortmund where they had heavy heavy snow and we saw it was an easy unders game.

Keep your eyes open on the weather and what the weather might do to the pitches. Most teams don’t have a Wembley, Camp Nou or Bernabeu to play on.

Also know that some teams react differently to bad weather and bad pitches. Many teams will prefer a bad pitch whilst the Barcas and Arsenals of this world really need the good conditions.

Levante v Real Madrid a few weeks back was another game that became a lottery.

The big result of the past few weeks was Celtic v Barcelona. The question is does it signal the end of an era?

Is this the end of an era for this Barcelona side, a side I have said is the best side ever to play this game without any doubt.

It is possible; in fact it’s more than possible.

It’s not only a football factor, it’s a human factor that will kick in is my take on it. Once a football player is distracted in any way he is in trouble.

Distracted in any way!

Some examples of when that happens, just a few of many.

-Titles: Barca have won how much lately? This is a big big issue as you can lose that extra motivation when there is nothing else to win.

-Money: In this case it might be a bad example but this is a situation you can have with young kids (I had it).

– Women: A very dangerous snake in football players. Love is great but it can change players. Pique has not been the same player since Shakira came into his life. He plays very poorly and seems distracted.

Messi just became a father and who knows what this may bring.

Speculation/Reaching? In my opinion not at all. I just see things way ahead of rest of the people. The young players coming through at Barcelona such as Tello and Cuenca etc. have 1% of the talent that Iniesta and Xavi have.

The hunger is a BIG BIG issue here as we saw against Celtic over the 180 minutes.

Today's Racing Selection courtesy of Value Backing Extra (Click here to join for just £9 per month)

Ascot 2.40 Ackertac 1/4pt win @ 14`1 BetVictor BOG

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