Tag Archives: firm

Breeders Cup Tips

It's Friday and so we have our regular look at the weekend racing from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman )

We had another decent return last week with Kleo faring best of our Cumani runners at Doncaster, winning her race at 11/2. Wishfull Thinking (adv 14/1) was one of our each-way alternatives in the Old Roan Chase with the caveat his chances would increase with the arrival of any rain.

As it happens he bolted up on good ground with not a drop of rain in sight. This Friday we will take a look at the Breeders’ Cup and we have a selection from the Charlie Hall Chase meeting from Wetherby.

To me the Breeders’ Cup is one of those meetings where a small wager can increase your enjoyment of watching it, rather than it being a serious punting mission like Royal Ascot or the Cheltenham Festival. The main action takes place on Saturday but one horse I like runs on Friday in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Much is often made of the European runners being better on turf than their American counterparts but on this occasion I am siding with the home filly Lady Eli. Unbeaten in two starts she has had the same prep as her trainer’s previous winner in this race, namely Maram in 2008, including a win in the recognised trial race The Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont. She has the finishing kick to go close here. Osaila looks the best of the Europeans.

Goldencents looks to have a massive chance in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and I am happy to have him onside at 5/4. He has most things in his favour here and for once I will side with a favourite as he bids to defend his crown.

Breeders Cup Friday
Juvenile Fillies Turf – Lady Eli @13/2
Dirt Mile – Goldencents @5/4

On Saturday Silviniaco Conti should win the Charlie Hall Chase in what is an above average renewal, but 5/4 is plenty short enough for what is essentially a prep run.

Earlier on the card I will have a couple of quid on Aurore D’Estruval in the mares hurdle. She is a course and distance winner and acquitted herself well in two subsequent starts at Haydock (subsequent Fred Winter winner Hawk High tailed off in last place) and at Aintree when 5th in a Grade 1 won by Guitar Pete. This is a Listed race and back against her own sex she can go well.

Back to the USA and I make Dank the standout bet in the Filly and Mare Turf. She has been kept in training this season with this race her prime objective. Not only will she get her firm ground but she will once again have the services of Ryan Moore, undoubtedly the best jockey on the planet right now. Add to that the positive vibes from the Stoute yard about her well-being and she has to be top of most people’s shortlist. I make her my NAP for Saturday’s action.

Elsewhere, Daredevil could take some pegging back in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3/1 looks a fair price.

Saturday

Wetherby 2.05pm – Aurore D’Estruval

Breeders’ Cup
Filly and Mare Turf – Dank @9/4
Juvenile – Daredevil @3/1

Betfred Mile Tips

Today we are joined by Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders who has analysed the Betfred King George Stakes and the Betfred Mile.

To get access to all Nick's tips join him at http://bettinginsiders.com

The Glorious Goodwood festival is in full flow and Friday sees the Group 2 Betfred King George Stakes over 5f and the 20 runner Betfred Mile heritage handicap. I have run the rule over the entries and hopefully identified a few likely types including a 28/1 outsider for the feature sprint.

3.05pm Betfred Mile (Heritage handicap) 1m

A big field handicap over a mile and it is worth applying some trends to try and whittle the field down to a few likely contenders.

16 of the last 17 winners were all aged 3 to 5yo
14 of the last 17 winners had a previous win at the distance
All bar two of the winners since 1997 had raced in the last 30 days
14 of the winners since 1997 had run to a top 5 finish LTO

That leaves us with a short list of three – Velox, Russian Realm and Heavy Metal.

With Russian Realm doubtful we are left with the top two in the betting. These horses are those that best match the profiles of previous winners since 1997.

Trends selections: Velox @7/1 and Heavy Metal @9/1

3.40pm King George Stakes 5f

Caspian Prince looks a tad overpriced @28/1 given he has some decent form on downhill tracks including a win in the Epsom dash earlier this year.

This is an obvious step up in class but he is a speedy type who should be suited by the track and must have an each-way shout if the rain stays away (best form on good to firm).

Demora is another who brings good handicap form to the table and is worth a crack at this level. On form then Extortionist looks the one to beat but is priced up accordingly.

Tropics also has top notch Group form including a career best runner up spot to Slade Power in the July Cup.

However, this is his first attempt at the minimum trip.

Hamza has a Group 3 win to this name three starts back (Es Que Love back in 2nd) and will most likely attempt to make all. He looks a solid back-to-lay proposition.

Last year’s winner Moviesta has failed to go on this year but his figures over 5f on good or good to firm are excellent. I think he will run well.

Likeliest winner: Extortionist @9/2
Alternative: Moviesta @8/1
Each-way alternatives: Caspian Prince @28/1

Finally don’t forget to keep an eye out for the 2yo Godolphin runners at Newmarket this Friday and Saturday. We have previously highlighted their performance at the July course over the last 5 years and they have proved very profitable to follow for this column in the last 4 weeks.

Nick Hardman
http://bettinginsiders.com

Hawkeye Column

Hawkeye TipsToday I'm pleased to announce that not only do we have some words of wisdom from Peter Hawkeye but we also have a special offer on his service.

If you check out the proofing tables at Race Advisor you'll see that Hawkeye Tips has a huge return on investment (181%) with his big priced selections and now Daily Punt readers can try them for a month for just 7.99.

You wont find this offer on any other site and this link takes you direct to Paypal, once you have completed the Paypal you will receive an email with log in details.

Click Here to Trial Hawkeye Tips

Over to Peter…

I do like it when the racing trade press make assumptions about runners that are not strictly true, I call this lazy journalism.

That is the case in point today with Gregorian 3.30 Newmarket.

In the Racing Post it states that the horse is best with some ease in the ground. Well how can that be true? When the horse has only once ran on Good – Firm going in 2011 as a 2 year old in a very hot sales race and ran pretty well.

The fact that it has not raced on that surface since must leave the original statement in doubt, for we just don’t know that it is true or not. Until we see more evidence i.e it runs on the ground a few times no one can make that judgement.

I suspect that Gregorian may run well today even though you will not get rich at 11’2.

60 Points Profit in One Day

Rory DelargyWhat a day that was.

The people that took the £5 trial of the Racing Consultants service made over 60 points profit on Saturday.

So even the modest £10 bettors came away with £600 profit.

On the day they had winners at  7/2,  9/1 &  11/1. Along with an eachway Trixie with winners at 4/1 and 12/1 and a placed horse at 11/2.

I've got a selection from the guys for you below.

Another part of the service that I want to tell you about is the evening message.

When Rory and David assess the racing in the evening, occasionally they will spot a fancy that has been way over priced by the bookies.

When you get on at these prices you have locked in value and the option to trade out a bit of the bet for guaranteed profit.

They found one such bet last night and I got the mail at about 8:00 pm and I got my bet on at 16/1.

Most books have now cut the odds to 14/1, but as I type there is still a bit of 16's about (Boylesports)

Here's the Racing Consultants message sent out last night by Rory…

We hope to have more early messages now that the service is up and running, and those who've been trialling it for a while will be aware that we put Love Marmalade up as an overnight bet in May when he won at Musselburgh. On that occasion his SP was 3/1, but he was available to back the night before at 10/1 with a couple of firms.


This time the horse in question is Concrete Mac in the 4.10 at Chepstow.

The selection was a good fourth behind Fear Or Favour at Bath 2 starts back, and wasn't disgraced in mid-field last time. Both those runs came in higher grade, and when Hughie Morrison's charge was ridden by the inexperienced Charlie Bennett.

Dropped into a 0-70 tomorrow, and with the underrated Pat Dobbs on board, he's capable of going well, and is completely the wrong price with those firms who have chalked the race up.

He's far from a gimme (I was originally looking at Llyrical in the contest as he was a good second when advised at a Betfair price of 55 last time.), but I would have him in at no bigger than 7/1, and he's been chalked up at 16/1 with both Paddy Power and Bet365.

Paddy Power are also offering money back if your horse finishes second or third in this contest, which merely enhances his appeal. I'm happy enough to make him my Irish Field Nap, and will be stunned if he's not 10/1 or shorter by noon tomorrow.

The £5 trial for one months access to this service is still available and I recommend you jump on board before the entry fee increases.

Click Here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

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