Tag Archives: fun

Backing Favourites, Profitable?

Today we have our regular Wednesday article from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

Can you make money backing favourites?

Most people tell you that there is no value in backing favourites and you should stay clear of them and look for those “outsiders” that come in now and then, at a really good value.

It sounds plausible except almost 80% of all winners come from the top 3 or 4 in the betting and so although it’s not rare to see an outsider come in at great value…

…It’s not easy finding and identifying them.

If you have read any of my articles then you are probably aware that I tend to go on about strike rate and average winning odds a lot.

There is good reason for this…

…They are important…very important.

At the end of the day all that matters is that these two figures stack up and make you a profit.

If you go for the lower strike rate range then you will need higher AWO odds to make money.

Where a higher strike rate means you need lower AWO to make money.

So it doesn’t matter if you are on favourites or outsiders the figures still have to add up.

People love going on about finding value and if you like being a detective then it is really good fun.

But value bets winning are rare and so even if you get good at spotting them your strike rate is still going to be low, meaning you will get a lot of losers before finding a winner.

Looking for value bets also needs a big bank roll and you need to know when to take advantage of the odds available.

I follow a number of systems like this and you soon find out that you have to go through losing runs of 20, 30 or even 50, to make these systems work.

Not many people are prepared to do this and not many people have the bank to support it.

I am not saying you shouldn’t have high price value strategies…

…I am just saying it probably doesn’t want to be your only strategy.

But we have already talked about there being no profit in favourites so what else can we do?

Well let’s discuss that for a moment.

Let us say that we came up with a system that uses favourites and has an average strike rate of 50%.

That means “on average” we win one bet and we lose one bet.

So every time we lose…we lose 1 point which means every time we win we need to do better than 1 pt to make money.

In fact if we take Betfair prices where we can generally do a little better then we need an average winning price of 1.05, just to break even.

So let’s say for arguments sake we get on average a winning price 1.26 (2.26).

1.26 * 5% = 0.06 = 1.20 profit

So if we had 100 selections in a month and won on 50 of them it would look like this…

50 * 1.20 = 60 – 50 = 10 points.

So as you can see we don’t have to have a very high “average winning odds” to make a decent amount of points every month.

The thing is to test…it’s no good saying you cannot make money on favourites unless you try some strategies over 2 or 3 months.

If you pick well then even if you don’t get the prices you need. You are unlikely to lose as much as you would following a low strike rate high value system with long losing runs.

We are testing a number of high strike rate systems over at the Grey Horse Web site.

Check them out here.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

Today's Selection

6.50 Kempton Danas Present – win bet 11/4 Bet Victor

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Avoiding Duff Tipsters (and finding the gems!)

The amount of times i’ve been asked for help after someone has paid a substantial sum for (enter Mr Hot Shot’s betting service) tips only to find their bankroll down 50% after a few weeks is astounding.

Here’s a couple of things to watch out for when looking for a genuine betting service:

1. Little or no proven track record – genuine tipster’s will have the results to back up their claims. If you can’t find the results, ask for them. If you don’t get them, don’t waste any more of your time – without the results it’s likely the profit claims are false.

2. No trial period or money back guarantee. Genuine tipster’s will be happy to provide a cheaper trial so they can prove their worth. Likewise, they will not be afraid to offer your money back over a certain period because if their strategy produces profit, the vast majority won’t ask for a refund. So at least one of these things is a must.

Another thing to avoid is going all in with a single strategy. Betting always comes with a certain level of risk, so anything we can do to spread this risk is going to be beneficial in the long run. Test the water with a few different strategies, systems or tipster services and find out what works for you. Then you can begin to build a betting portfolio which will ensure those much sought after long term profits.

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Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.10 Newcastle:Slunovrat 5/1 generally

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Longest Losing Run

Smart SiggerI've just been catching up with my reading, with this months Smart Sigger magazine.

This months issue includes Ebor Handicap Trends, a piece on the wisdom of crowds that looks at why starting prices reflect the true chance of a horse, a continuation of their implementation of a Bayes Theorem method. A system for betting debutantes in handicaps and an interesting piece about why you shouldnt always use past results as an indication of future performance.

But the piece I want to talk about today is a discussion of whether you are a gambler or an investor, which provided a reminder of the formula that you can use to calculate your longest expected losing run.

I think we have published this formula before but it's always worthwhile to revisit important fundamentals.

The gist of the article was that if you dont stake your bets consistently with your longest expected losing run then you are a gambler not an investor.

The formula for working out the longest expected losing run for a given strike rate is

LOG(Number of selections)/-LOG(1-Strike Rate)

If, like me you no longer have your log tables to hand, then you will need to use Excel or something similar to make the calculation.

By way of an example lets assume that we expect to make 400 bets this season and that the methods we use have a strike rate of 20%.

The 20% has to be converted to a decimal number, so we divide by 100 to give 0.20.

So the calculation is

LOG(400)/-LOG(1-0.20) = 26.85

So with a 20% strike rate over 400 bets we can expect a losing run of between 26 and 27.

Eddie Lloyd who wrote the piece goes on to state that if you intend to be an investor and not a gambler you had better have a bank and a stake size that can cope with the losing runs you can expect.

You can get your first issue of Smart Sigger for free – Click Here

Today's Selection

Lingfield 6.35 O Gorman – eachway bet – 13/2 Bet Victor

 

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