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Musselburgh Tips

Today we have a guest post from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders (http://bettinginsiders.com)

Musselburgh Tips and Trainer Trends

We are off to Musselburgh in search of winners on Friday and we have a few trainers with some impressive strike rates at the Scottish track.

First up is Philip Kirby who does well with his handicap runners. He does not do so well with his sprinters so best to concentrate on those races of 7f or longer.

Philip Kirby – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 7f or longer

Philip Kirby – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 7f or longer

On Friday he has the following qualifiers – Forgiving Glance (2.30pm), Just Paul (3.30pm) and Rocky Two (4.30pm).

Our next trainer to follow is Alan Swinbank who also does well with his handicappers at middle and staying distances:

Alan Swinbank – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 1 mile to 1 mile 6f

Alan Swinbank – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014 over 1 mile to 1 mile 6f

On Friday he runs Lady Kashaan & Dark Ruler (4.00pm). Robert Winston takes the ride on Lady Kashaan and the Swinbank/ Winston pairing has bagged 5 winners from 11 rides in the last 2 years at Musselburgh.

Our third trainer is Michael Dods. He is another trainer who excels with his handicappers at the course.

Michael Dods – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014

Michael Dods – handicaps at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014

On Friday he runs Alan’s Pride (2.30pm) in the Nursery. Connor Beasley takes the ride and the Dods/ Beasley combination has teamed up for 4 winners from 6 rides at the course in the last 2 years.

A few of you have asked for a list of trainers with a high strike rate at the courses we cover in this Friday column. Here is the list for all trainers with a 20% or higher strike rate at Musselburgh since 2010 (minimum of 20 runners):

R. Fahey 24%
P. Kirby 27%
Declan Carroll 26%
M. Dods 28%
A. Swinbank 21%

On a final note for Musselburgh, William Haggas has had just 11 runners at the track since 2010 but 5 have won, including three of the last four. In fact he is 1-1 in 2012, 1-1 in 2013 and 1-2 in 2014. Keep an eye out for anything he runs up at the Scottish track.

Finally, we have previously highlighted the performance of the Tom Dascombe/ Richard Kingscote combination at Haydock and on Friday they team up with the unraced Opportuna (6.20pm) and War Paint (6.50pm).

It will be interesting to see how they run at what may well be decent odds.

Hamilton Trainer Trends

Today we have an article from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders where he looks at the Hamilton trainers for tonights meeting.

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Hamilton Trainer Trends

At first glance Keith Dalgleish does not appear to be a trainer to follow at Hamilton, despite a highly respectable strike rate of 14.95% in the last 5 years.

Backing all of his 194 runners at the track since 2010 would have resulted in an overall loss of £21.34 to £1 level stakes. However, if we focus solely on his runners in non-handicap races then we see a different story altogether.

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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The record of his runners in non-handicap races is not only highly impressive but they are highly profitable too with a 25% win strike rate and a 50% place strike rate.

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

Keith Dalgleish (runners in non-handicap races at Hamilton since 2010)

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His last 5 runners at the track in non-handicap races have finished 31121 at prices of 20/1, 7/1, 5/2, 50/1 and 9/4. On Friday he has the following entries in non-handicap races:

6.40pm Sir Acclam & Battleranger in the 6f maiden

Battleranger ran 2nd to an odds-on Mark Johnston fancy at the track last time out. That was only his second start and he outran his odds of 50/1 by some way. Sir Acclam was last of 9 on his sole start at Ayr.

Another trainer with a great record at Hamilton is Kevin Ryan. Since 2010 his runners at the course show a level stakes profit of £27.78 and a healthy strike rate of 23.33%.

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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His 3yo runners do particularly well.

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Kevin Ryan (3yo runners at Hamilton since 2010)

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He has the following entries on Friday:

7.40pm Hopes N Dreams & Blaine in the 6f class 2 handicap
8.45pm Keep To The Beat (3yo) in the 1m 3f handicap

Hopes N Dream absolutely loves it around Hamilton. The 6yo has course figures of 111711111. That’s 8 wins from 9 visits to the course including a last time out C&D win over useful yardstick Tangerine Trees.

Blaine is also entered in the same race but this former Gimcrack winner is a riskier betting proposition. He has failed to live up to expectations after winning his maiden and the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes as a 2yo.

Once rated 107 his mark has tumbled to 96 and he unseated his rider last time out. He is undoubtedly talented as shown on his one good run this year when 3rd of 20 in a good handicap at York behind Aetna and Baccarat.

It may be he saves his best for York (form figures 113) but it would be folly to dismiss his chances out of hand here. Keep To The Beat is still a maiden after 9 starts but ran his best race last time out when a 1 ¼ length 3rd of 14 at Beverley. He stepped up from a mile to 10f that day and the extra furlong may well suit.

Our final trainer to follow at Hamilton is Mrs Marjorie Fife. Her record with her runners at the course speaks for itself:

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Mrs Marjorie Fife (all runners at Hamilton since 2010)

Click to Enlarge

She is 2-2 this season at Hamilton and both those victorious horses return to the track on Friday.

7.10pm Mandalay King in the 6f handicap
9.10pm Camerooney in the 1m 1f handicap

Mandalay King is a 9yo now but he is still competitive at his given level. His overall course figures are 1723172241581. All four of his victories have come at class 5 or lower and he goes in the 6f class 5 handicap on Friday evening.

Camerooney is even older at 11 but he is another who loves it around Hamilton with two wins and a third place finish from three starts. Shirley Teasdale is booked to ride both and takes off a useful 5lbs which should see both horses competitive.

Finally, don’t forget we have previously highlighted (and profited from) Tom Dascombe’s runners at Haydock and the Godolphin 2yo runners at Newmarket trained by Charlie Appleby and Saeed bin Suroor. Both courses have meetings this Friday and Saturday so be sure to keep an eye out for their runners over the next two days.

Racing Consultants Free Tips

Today we are able to share a bit of the expertise available to Betting Insiders club members.

The analysis and selections come from David Massey and Rory Delargey.

Two guys that you will no doubt of heard of if you listen to any of the bookmaker/timeform radio channels.

Below you will find their selections for today’s racing along with their reasoning and analysis for each bet.

This information is posted in the Betting Insiders Club members only forum where Rory and David are currently providing daily analysis and selections to all Betting Insiders members.

Today’s Selections:

1pt e/w Silver Roque 4.20 Perth @ 11-1 (general)
0.5 pts e/w Apache Glory 4.00 Beverley @ 12-1 (general)
0.5 pts e/w double

Silver Roque looks a very fair price for what, at first glance, looks quite an open handicap at Perth but a few of these have been disappointing this year and one or two are probably running at the wrong trip too. The key to Silver Roque is simple – he goes particularly well after a break, with his last three wins all coming after breaks of 4 months or more. His last win, over Tahiti Pearl, may only have been at Sedgefield but he was hugely impressive, having the race won a long way out, and travelling strongly throughout. Add in the recent rain that has fallen at the track and the fact his trainer is back amongst the winners and the morning price looks a decent one.

Apache Glory is more speculative but there are good reasons for thinking he’s overpriced. Genius Boy will go off favourite here, and whilst it would be wrong to say he’s a false favourite as he was punted off the boards for his debut at Wolverhampton and raced throughout like he knew his job, and clearly there will be more to come, but the form as it stands is ordinary and Beverley is very much a specialist track. But his presence will mean others go off overpriced (Maybeme was also looked at as a possible e/w selection too, he could go off a 33s chance if the favourite gets punted in again) but at the morning prices Apache Glory is the one that makes the most appeal.

Winner of this race last year, this has clearly been the target again, and although he is 4lb higher than his victory last year he has also run well here in a better race from 4lb higher than this mark, so he’s handicapped to win again.

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