Tag Archives: great strike rate

National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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Trainer Trends: First Run

Trainer Trends: First Run

A lot of punters and form students bet by the maxim ‘never expect a horse to do something it hasnt done before!'

EG If it's never run with blinkers before and it has them today then watch and see how it performs with blinkers rather than consider it a bet.

Or if it has not run in a hurdle before then it can't be considered as a bet on it's first attempt.

The trouble with this approach is that it misses a lot of potential.

A good horse watcher will have a feel for what conditions a horse needs.

A trainer will also have this feel, but with the added benefit of having the facilities to try the horse out under the changed conditions and see how it goes. Before committing to the race track.

So how can we benefit from the trainers insight.

Well quite simply trainers are creatures of habit and some of them are good at getting a horse ready for it's first race under new conditions. And some are not.

I have just read a very interesting piece of trainer trends research by our friend and prolific stats man Dave Renham.

This time it was in the Racing Investors Club.

Dave has researched how trainers perform with their charges having their first run in various types of races.

I'll give an examples here of first runs in hurdles.

Nicky Henderson has a great strike rate with his horses having their first run in a hurdle.

The strike rate is 33.1% and betting them all would have returned a level stakes profit of £64.86 for £1 stakes.

You can increase the strike rate and profit by only betting when the horse is in the first four in the betting, when it runs at Ascot, Hereford, Huntingdon, Ludlow, Sandown or Taunton. And by excluding horses that havent previously won a race.

The above makes up a pretty nifty micro system in itself. But when you add the other trainers that Dave has researched and add in Flat racing as well you have a good source of profitable bets.

The Racing Investors Club February report contains the full stats and is still available to new members.

The club is well worth checking out and is packed full of systems and research every month. Click Here for full info.

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Today’s Selection Sponsored by Betting Insiders Club

Combe Hill 4.40 Taunton 2pt win @ 9`4 various firms

Strange that he is not odds on for this race. Has very solid recent pointing form and was running very well until unseating late on in a race of high quality last year when seen under rules that is head and shoulders above the competition here.

Vivarini 3.30 Ludlow 1pt win @ 9`2 various firms

Has form at various distances from 2 miles – 3 miles, so trip will not be a problem. Ridden by what I think is a very good 8lb claimer and is one of very few in the race that is in any kind of recent form.

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