Tag Archives: guaranteed profit

Green Up: How To Calculate Your Stakes

The first thing to say is that when this article was first written there was no cash out button on Betfair, so life is easier if you just want to lock in a profit and green up on a horse you've bet, no calculator required. But don't expect to get the best bet possible using the cash out button!

But you should know the maths and how to calculate your own stakes for greening up and that's what we cover on this page.

Yesterday Pete asked how do we calculate our stakes when we have made a trade and we want to green up.

So Pete has backed a horse that is shortening in price and he wants to green up on that selection. IE lock in a profit whatever the outcome.

If for example you were lucky or smart enough to get on Shaws Diamond yesterday morning you could have bet it at around 16.0.

This mare started with a Betfair SP of 6.64. (Easier to find these greening up opportunities in hindsight!!)

So let's say you had a back bet for £10 at 16.0 in the morning and it's just before the off and your horse is now trading at 6.8.

You want to lock in a profit on Shaw's Diamond and want to know what stake to lay at 6.8.

The calculation is to multiply your initial stake times your initial back odds (£10 x 16.0 = £160)

You then divide that by the lay price that you can get (£160/6.8 = £23.52)

Place your lay of £23.52 at 6.8 and your initial bet of £10 has now converted to a guaranteed payout of £12.84.

I mentioned a while back that a lot of serious backers don't wait for a selection to win these days.

Instead they lock in a profit once their horse trades down to a certain level and then lock in the profit.

This method is great for predetermined trades or for when you have time to calculate the stake.

When the pressure is on you might prefer to use lay calculator software that can make the bet in the click of a button 🙂

If you want to it the other way around. So say you have one that's drifting and you lay a tenner at 6.8 and now can back it at 16.0.

Multiply your lay price by your lay stake (£10 x 6.8 = £68) and then divide that by your new odds (£68/16.0 = £4.25).

Back your selection for £4.25 at 16.0 and lock in a £5.46 profit.

A final note: It's easier to find steamers just listen to the pundits and check out free tipsters. Also you risk less money in the initial bet and get a better profit on the green up.

(Green Up: Common parlance for a guaranteed profit on Betfair where every selection shows it will profit if that selection win)

60 Points Profit in One Day

Rory DelargyWhat a day that was.

The people that took the £5 trial of the Racing Consultants service made over 60 points profit on Saturday.

So even the modest £10 bettors came away with £600 profit.

On the day they had winners at  7/2,  9/1 &  11/1. Along with an eachway Trixie with winners at 4/1 and 12/1 and a placed horse at 11/2.

I've got a selection from the guys for you below.

Another part of the service that I want to tell you about is the evening message.

When Rory and David assess the racing in the evening, occasionally they will spot a fancy that has been way over priced by the bookies.

When you get on at these prices you have locked in value and the option to trade out a bit of the bet for guaranteed profit.

They found one such bet last night and I got the mail at about 8:00 pm and I got my bet on at 16/1.

Most books have now cut the odds to 14/1, but as I type there is still a bit of 16's about (Boylesports)

Here's the Racing Consultants message sent out last night by Rory…

We hope to have more early messages now that the service is up and running, and those who've been trialling it for a while will be aware that we put Love Marmalade up as an overnight bet in May when he won at Musselburgh. On that occasion his SP was 3/1, but he was available to back the night before at 10/1 with a couple of firms.


This time the horse in question is Concrete Mac in the 4.10 at Chepstow.

The selection was a good fourth behind Fear Or Favour at Bath 2 starts back, and wasn't disgraced in mid-field last time. Both those runs came in higher grade, and when Hughie Morrison's charge was ridden by the inexperienced Charlie Bennett.

Dropped into a 0-70 tomorrow, and with the underrated Pat Dobbs on board, he's capable of going well, and is completely the wrong price with those firms who have chalked the race up.

He's far from a gimme (I was originally looking at Llyrical in the contest as he was a good second when advised at a Betfair price of 55 last time.), but I would have him in at no bigger than 7/1, and he's been chalked up at 16/1 with both Paddy Power and Bet365.

Paddy Power are also offering money back if your horse finishes second or third in this contest, which merely enhances his appeal. I'm happy enough to make him my Irish Field Nap, and will be stunned if he's not 10/1 or shorter by noon tomorrow.

The £5 trial for one months access to this service is still available and I recommend you jump on board before the entry fee increases.

Click Here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

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