Tag Archives: hand

Greyhound Racing Videos

Before I get into the specifics of finding winning dogs by reading the form I want to just give a bit more background info and talk about a method I used to use when I was full time betting the greyhounds…

Finding the winning greyhound in a graded race is about a lot more than the times it has achieved in the past.

Graded racing is the greyhound equivalent of a handicap race except that greyhounds are not allocated any sort of handicap to slow them down.

Instead they selected to be as closely matched as possible.

The Racing Managers job is to put together races that are as closely matched as possible and to, if you like, create a puzzle for the punters.

On course bookmaking at greyhound tracks is notoriously hard, mainly because when money talks in a small market there are not the opportunities to balance out a book. This is the reason that on course overrounds are huge at greyhound tracks and the reason that the Racing Manager does his best to make the races as decipherable as possible.

Don’t let any of this put you off, though, because winners can be found if you are selective and if the meeting is covered by Betfair then fair prices can be obtained also.

As with any activity knowledge equals power or in this case the more you know the more profitable you can be. The ultimate level of knowledge is to have watched every race ever run by every dog in the race to hand and to know how each has been performing at home. (Many trainers these days have some sort of track at their own kennels).

It is unlikely that you can get inside info on every dog in a race but you can often get to see every race a dog has run. For some years now tracks have supplied videos of all races run to those prepared to pay for the privilege. And the backer who focuses on one particular track can, given time, watch every run of a particular animal. However this is an expensive, although ultimately profitable, approach.

I will briefly touch on the things to watch out for when race watching here and next time we'll get on to a more form based approach.

Racing Videos

When watching greyhound racing in the main what you are looking for is

• Dogs that have had a hard race (bumped and blocked) but still performed well indicating they are faster than the time recorded. They are likely faster than the bare form suggests. If you are in the bookies watching the BAGS racing and you see a dog that had a hard race make a note of it and check the results to see what tine it did and estimate what time you think it should have done,. It may be a good bet next time out.

• How a dog breaks from the traps EG do they run straight to the rail, which would cause trouble for the dog inside them but hand an advantage to the dog on their outside. This info can be useful in assessing the chances of the dog in question and other dogs.

• Are they on the bunny! IE doing everything in their power to get in front and win or did they give up easy & just follow the pack home. Chasers, who are not really up for it will win less than their share of races because they don't like to be in front.

Racing Tips – Nick Hardman

Today we have my favourite column of the week, the Nick Hardman – Betting Insiders column.

Before I hand you over to Nick just to mention that there is a qualifier from the Tongue Tie system, which we are paper trading currently and that's 16:15 Sandown Paddy The Stout.

If you enjoy Nick's columns as much as I do then do check out the Betting School Insiders Club where you can enjoy more of his wisdom.

Here's Nick…

We have jumps racing at Fakenham and Sandown today and Nicky Henderson’s runners might be worth a second look in the betting markets given his record at both tracks.

Since January 2011 he has sent 30 runners to Fakenham and 13 have won. However, backing each of those runners to level stakes would have resulted in a very small loss at SP.

Dig a little deeper and we find that his Fakenham runners are 1-6 in chases, 8-19 in hurdles races and 4-5 in bumper races.

Taking a closer look at the hurdlers we find they are 5-10 in novice races, 2-5 in maiden races and 1-4 in handicaps.

He has the following entries at the time of writing:

1.45 Medieval Chapel (Beginners’ Chase)
3.25pm Clean Sheet (Novices’ Hurdle)
4.35pm Clemency (Mares’ NH Flat Race)

At Sandown, Nicky Henderson has had 35 winners from 145 runners in the last 5 years at a strike rate of 24% and shows a level stakes profit of £36.07.

His hurdlers are 26-95 (27% strike rate) and show a profit of £47.72.

He has won with 8 of his last 18 hurdlers at the course for a profit of £27.69.

The Barry Geraghty/ Nicky Henderson partnership has teamed up for 17 hurdle winners at Sandown from 42 runners at an impressive strike rate of 41% and a level stakes profit of £41.12.

Nicky Henderson has the following entries at Sandown today:

2.30pm Broxbourne (Geraghty) & Hel Tara (Mares’ Novice Hurdle)

One of the feature races of the weekend is the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

Last Friday our trends analysis identified Violet Dancer as a likely candidate for the Betfair Hurdle and I am hoping for more of the same this weekend.

The key trends are a win over 3m or further, aged 9yo – 11yo, not raced in the last 31 days, raced over 3m 5f or further, a top two finish LTO and trained by Paul Nicholls, Lucinda Russell or Venetia Williams.

In addition, only 3 winners since 1997 have carried more than 11st to victory on soft or heavy going.

There is one horse who ticks all the trends boxes apart from the trainer box and that is Harry The Viking.

He has not won since his novice days from where he went on to finish runner-up to Teaforthree in the National Hunt Chase at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival.

That run earned him a rating of 143 and he competed in the Scottish National, The Hennessy and the Grand National after that.

However, he failed to build on that early promise and his mark plummeted to 122.

Off that mark he ran his best race in a long time when runner-up to Lie Forrit last time out when 2lbs out of the handicap. He has been raised just 2lbs for that effort.

Haydock Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w)

At that price he would be the biggest winner since Rambling Minster @18/1 in 2009 but Rigadin De Beauchene won this @16/1 last year and 8 of the last 12 winners returned SPs of 10/1 or higher.

Being flexible added 8% ROI

Malcolm Pett's Wednesday column
======

I have always liked to think of myself as a “Flexible” thinker.

In other words I am ready to change my opinion if I feel there is enough evidence to convince me that another way is better.

Sometimes I have to admit that I can be a little too quick to change my opinion but I suppose I would rather be that way, than to stubborn to change it at all.

Don’t get me wrong I have very strong belief’s about some things, it’s just I like to be flexible about others.

For instance I am a dog obedience and trick trainer and over the years I have learned the best way to train is “reward” based training.

It’s quick and it works and dogs respond to it well.

So I am totally against using any device or training method that causes a dog distress or harm or even looks like it could.

Sorry you won’t convince me otherwise!

But on the other hand…

I have been talking about the “Interactive” ratings that we are testing over at the Grey Horse Bot website for the last month.

I came up with a rating as 220 as being the best figure to follow.

But now on reflection and more testing I think 260 is the better number.

It’s not quite as profitable as 220 (by a very small margin) …

…But there are 3 good reasons for choosing 260

1. A higher strike rate.

2. Less selections

3. A higher Roi.

Although taking all the selections into consideration over the last 
3 months 220 has made 38.63 points, 260 has made 38.59.

Hardly anything in it…

But you would have been on fewer selections, which would have given 
you a higher strike rate and a better return on your investment.

The strike rate difference is over 4% and the ROI is 8% better.

So in this case it seems sensible to change from 220 to 260.

But that is the really good thing about this test it has allowed users to decide which rating suits them.

I do have to have a little giggle to myself though when after all I have written about these ratings I still get the question…

“What is the best rating to follow?”

Well at least I now have an answer…

If you want to follow along with the test then pop over to the Grey Horse Bot website.

Maybe you have another opinion…

It would be great to hear it.

Thanks
Malcolm

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

14:30 Chelmsford City Indias Song – win bet – 9/4 Sky Bet

First Time Headgear How To?

We had a few questions yesterday asking how we find horses that are wearing headgear for the first time.

I use Horse Race Base, in their Daily Cards section there is a Shortcuts link where they list a whole host of shortcuts, one of which is 1st Time Headgear.

If you're not a Horse Race Base user then there are other places to find these horses.

In the Racing Post race cards there is a letter after the horses name that indicates the use of headgear.

Headgear –
b=blinkers,
v=visor
e/s = eyeshield
h = hood
t = tongue-strap
p = sheepskin cheekpieces.

A superior 1 denotes 1st time headgear

Here's an example from today of a horse wearing a Visor for the first time…

Visor First Time

 

At the Sporting Life it's the same format but the indicator is located after the horse's weight…

Sporting Life Visor

 

But probably the best free way to find these horses is to use the Sporting Life' Today's Pointers page which you can find in the left hand menu of the racing section.

Or go direct using this link http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/pointers

On this page they have a section for horses wearing Blinkers for the first time and also a Cheekpieces section, which lists all horses wearing cheekpieces and you can find first timers by looking for the 1 after the ‘p'.

Finally for today there is a useful page on the Racing Post that explains how to read the racecard.

Here's the link http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/help.sd

Today's Selection

3:00 Southwell – Longside – Win Bet – 6/4 Bet Victor

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