Tag Archives: handicap races

Nick Hardman Free Tips

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat tweet this tip
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4 tweet this tip
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker tweet this tip
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2 tweet this tip

Southwell Trainer System

Today I’ve nicked a very small part of a detailed article that Nick Hardman wrote for the On Course Profits magazine.

(Get the whole mag for free at http://oncourseprofits.com)

The article that Nick wrote teaches readers how to find their own profitable trainer trends and in this excerpt he starts by looking at the leading trainers at Southwell.

southwell top trainers

 

Keith Dalgleish has a very healthy 28% strike rate and has had a decent amount of runners. By clicking on “Run” we can see the yearly breakdown of the trainer’s performance at the track.

Keith Dalgleish Breakdown

 

Two things are interesting here. Firstly, he has almost doubled the amount of runners he sends to the Midlands track compared to 2011 and 2012. Secondly, his performance in the last 2 seasons suggests his yard is clearly on an upward curve.

Again we use Keith Dalgleish at Southwell (AW) from 2011 to 2014 as the basic system to search for a profitable betting angle in HRB. Immediately we can see that all of his profit has come in handicap races.

Keith Dalgleish Handicap

Digging deeper into his handicap performers showed winners came from all age groups across a variety of race distances. The recommendation here would be to back all his handicap runners at Southwell.

If you haven’t already subscribed to On Course Profits then I highly recommend that you do so today and lock in a free life time subscription. Click Here

Today’s Selection

12:20 Newcastle Jonny Eager – win bet 3/1 Coral

 

Salisbury Trainer Trends

Today Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club takes a look at key trends for both jockeys and trainers at the Salisbury meeting.

Don’t forget you can get free winning tips from the Betting School every weekend when you register on their site at http://betting-school.com.

Our Friday column was on the money last week with Nunthorpe winner Sole Power @7/2 and Ebor winner Mutual Regard @25/1. Hopefully a few of you were on. This week we take a look at Salisbury and some of the profitable trainers to make a note of. We also highlight a bang in-form trainer who looks worth following at Chester on Saturday.
First to Salisbury and standing head and shoulders above the rest is Lady Jane Cecil who continues the great work of her late husband. Since 2010 the Cecil yard has had 12 winners from 29 runners for a level stakes profit of £11.57 at the Wiltshire track. Most of the winners have come in non-handicap races and if we concentrate on their 3yo and 4yo non-handicap runners then the figures are 8-17 at a strike rate (SR) of 47% and a level stakes profit of £13.08. Six of their last nine runners at the track have won.

PD Evans has sent out the highest number of winners at the track with 19 in the last 5 seasons at a strike rate of 16%. That strike rate increases to 23% (12-52) in non-handicap races. If we take out his 2yo runners then he is 6-12 (SR 50%) and a level stakes profit of £30.50 with his older horses (3yo and 3yo+) in non-handicap races.

Finally, David Simcock does not send many runners to the track but in the last 5 seasons his non-handicap runners are 5-15 (SR 33.33%) and a level stakes profit of £8.98. Our top three trainers have no entries today but there are two more meetings in September so look out for their runners at the track in the next two weeks.

We have a great card at my local track Chester on Saturday and one trainer I want on-side is Andrew Balding. In the last 5 seasons he is 24-101 (SR 24%) and shows a healthy level stakes profit of £51.13. This season alone he is 8-18 (SR 44%) at the Roodee for a profit of £25.38. Balding and jockey Oisin Murphy have formed a tremendous partnership at the course in 2014, combining for 6 wins from 12 rides and a profit of £21.38. Andrew Balding has the following horses entered at Chester tomorrow:

2.20 Dungannon (5f handicap)
3.30 Whiplash Willie 1m 5f
4.40 Cosmic Ray (7f maiden)

Chester has the biggest draw bias of any course in the UK so we certainly want be drawn low for all races up to 7 ½ f. We have previously highlighted the fact Franny Norton rides Chester as well as anybody and he has a good book of rides on Saturday. They are B Fifty Two (2.20pm), Heavy Metal (2.55pm), Special Meaning (3.30pm), Enlace (4.05pm) and Sea Silk (4.40pm). B Fifty Two and Heavy Metal both look to have a decent chance which would be enhanced further by a nice, low draw.

On a final word, betting on trainer stats is a long term strategy that takes time and patience to reap the rewards. For example we highlighted William Haggas as a trainer to follow at York back in July. At the time of writing he had sent 11 runners to the track in 2014 and all 11 had lost. The following day he sent out two winners @4/1 and 9/2 and followed that up with 3 winners at the Ebor festival @12/1, 20/1 and 8/1.

Today’s Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.10 Salisbury Lady Crossmar 11/4

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