It's Friday, which means we have our regular guest post from Dr Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders. This week he's uncovered a trainer angle for the Cambridgeshire meeting and taken a look at the trends for Saturdays big race..
The Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting is underway and one trainer to keep a close eye on over the weekend is Richard Hannon Jr. He has an exceptional record with his horses at the Rowley Mile this season. Take a look at these stats:
Runs = 37
Wins = 10
Strike rate = 27%
Profit at SP = 86.71
However, 9 of those 10 winners have come in non-handicap races and all have been aged 2yo or 3yo.
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If we stick to that age group in non-handicap races then his figures are:
Runs = 23
Wins = 9
Strike rate = 39%
Profit at SP = 98.08
At the time of writing he has the following entries over the weekend that fit those criteria:
Friday 1.40pm Midnite Angel @14/1
Friday 3.15pm Anjaal @25/1
Friday 3.45pm Windshear @13/8
Saturday 2.35 Misterioso
Saturday 3.10pm Tiggy Wiggy @6/5
Saturday 4.25pm Light Glass
Saturday’s Cambridgeshire handicap is one of the oldest handicap races in the UK and a true spectacle. Picking the winner from over 30 runners is some task so I’ll be looking at the race trends to see if they can give us any pointers.
First up it looks like a top 5 finish last time out is a pre-requisite and accounts for 15 of the last 17 winners.
Horses that have had 5 – 8 runs that season account for 11 winners since 1997, so we may be looking at a reasonably well campaigned horse.
14 of the last 17 winners had all raced beyond 1m 1f at some point in their lives and, perhaps surprisingly for a big handicap, 9 of the last 17 winners came from the top 3 in the betting and 11 winners since 1997 had also won over further than the 1m 1f trip.
Only 2 horses since 1997 have carried 9st 5lb or more to victory but all of the last 10 winners carried 8st 7lb or higher.
No horse older than 6 has won this race in that time.
From a ratings perspective, 10 of the last 12 winners were rated 95 – 104.
Putting all those into the mix gives us a shortlist of:
Bronze Angel @20/1, Velox @11/1, Big Johnny D @33/1, Bartack @33/1, Fort Bastion @40/1
From our shortlist, Velox, Big Johnny D and Fort Bastion have raced but not won over further than 1m 1f.
If you want to include that stat we are left with:
Bronze Angel @20/1 & Bartack @33/1