heck Archives • Daily Punt

All Weather Profits

Posted on October 17, 2014 by Dave French • 2 Comments

Nick hit the jackpot again last week with the winner of the Cesarewitch, which returned 10/1.

To get more of Nick's expertise check out the Betting Insiders Club where Nick is a regular contributor.

Here's Nick…

Big Easy did the business as one of our two trends horses in the Cesarewitch last week to add to our trends winners in the Cambridgeshire and Ebor.

This week we look to the all-weather and a couple of systems that will hopefully keep the winners ticking over as we enter a difficult period for punters where the flat season ends and the jumps begin.

The boys in blue from Godolphin are more famous for picking up Group 1 wins around the world than for picking up winners at the UK all-weather tracks.

However, they are well worth following in the upcoming months. Here is the combined performance of Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor on the AW in the last 2 years:

Runners: 353
Winners: 89
Strike Rate: 25%
Level stakes profit: £57.81

They tend not to run any at Southwell, they make a small profit at Lingfield and an overall loss at Wolverhampton. Kempton seems to be their preferred track and their figures for 2013 and 2014 at that track are:

Runners: 205
Winners: 51
Strike Rate: 25%
Level stakes profit: £71.99

44 of those 51 winners were aged 2yo or 3yo. That gives us two micro systems for Kempton (AW) for Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor.

Godolphin 2yo runners at Kempton over 7f and 1 mile (Jan 2013 to Oct 2014):

Runners: 66
Winners: 21
Strike Rate: 32%
Level stakes profit: £49.17

Godolphin 3yo runners at Kempton between 6f and 1 mile 3f (Jan 2013 to Oct 2014):

Runners: 70
Winners: 17
Strike Rate: 24%
Level stakes profit: £33.24

QIPCO Champions Day has a completely different feel this year with the retirement of Kingman, Australia and Taghrooda and the withdrawal of some top horses on account of the forecast heavy ground.

With the latter in mind we might see a few upsets if the going is officially described as “heavy”.

That’s good news for the proven mudlarks and I have picked out a few whose best form has come on soft or heavy ground.

Some of these are big outsiders who could well outrun their current prices if they get their favoured conditions:

Ascot Saturday October 18th

1.45pm Whiplash Willie @10/1
2.20pm Maarek @7/1 & An Saighdiur @100/1
2.55pm Cubanita @15/2 and Madame Chiang @16/1
3.30pm Tullius @10/1
4.45pm Levitate @12/1 (Chatez @8/1 & Russian Realm 12/1 also go well on soft)

These are tough races and the horses above will need to beat some seriously good equine stars to get involved.

However, the heavy going may help them compete on more favourable terms.

I will not be lumping on but I will have a couple of quid each-way where applicable, or play them on the place markets on Betfair.

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Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Posted on October 8, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com talks about the research he is doing into profitable trainers and jockeys.

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Over the last year or so I have got really interested in Jockey and Trainers.

There is always a lot of talk about following the ones that are “in form”.

One thing I have learned is that it is not easy following them but if you manage your money correctly and are prepared to follow through then they can be rewarding.

One of the “open” tests we have been running at the Grey Horse Bot web site for the last 5 months is 16 jockeys to follow on the flat (grass only).

For me this system shows quite clearly how “interesting” it can be to follow Jockeys.

I have to admit I didn’t do too much work on this system I just took the top 16 jockeys that had over 200 runs (in our database at the time) and had made at least 10 points profit and had a strike rate of over 10%

So far this season (2014) combined:

3626 Selection

 484 Wins 

13.35 % Strike rate

 277.97 points profit (at BSP -5%) 

AWO 7.44 

ROI 7.67%

When you look at statistics from a system there are always one or two figures that can give you an understanding to how hard it can be to follow a system.

13.35% strike rate normally means some long losing runs. 

ROI 7.67 also points to a lot of work to earn those 277 points.

Of course with a bit more work and study we could have probably cut out some of the races and maybe even some of the Jockey could have been dropped.

But it does show that they can be very profitable even if they can be hard work to follow.

With the jump season upon us it’s a good time to look at some other statistics.

If we take Jockeys running on Handicap Hurdles with at least 100 runs (over the last two years).

Even the best only manage an average strike rate of around 16 to 18%.

You can find higher strike rates on jockeys with less runs so it is always worth looking for Jockeys that maybe only pick certain races to run in or new ones that appear to have started well.

This figure alone should tell you that you need to see if any jockey you want to follow does better in certain types of races of with specific trainers.

Trainers (less runs) do not fare much better on overall strike rate with the average being pretty similar to Jockeys.

The really interesting statistic is Jockeys and Trainers.

There is no doubt that there are pairings that are very successful like A P McCoy and Jim Best.

Strike rate on many of these are as high as 50% (over the last 2 years) and many are in the 30 to 40% range.

Some of these pairings can be very profitable especially some on the less well known ones.

So if you don’t like the idea of following Jockeys or Trainers on their own because of the low strike rate then the answer could be Jockey and Trainer pairs.

Check out open testing in the Article section of the Grey Horse Bot web site.

Malcolm Pett

Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

4.00 Ludlow The Bear Trap – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

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More Perth Profits?

Posted on September 25, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Our Gordon Elliott approach paid off again yesterday with two winners at 7/1 and 2/1 from 7 runners for a 4 point profit for a 57% return on the days investment.

Gordon Elliott has another 7 runners today, there are a couple of interesting factors that might effect your decision to bet.

First off Tico ran yesterday, started favourite and finished 23 lengths last.

The high level stats for all horses running in National Hunt races one day after their last race is 13% strike rate from 583 that have tried in the last 10 years.

The strike rate for Gordon Elliott trained runners that have run after one day is 23%.

The strike rate for horses that ran one day ago in a hurdle and today run in a chase is 20% with a 62% ROI.

Gordon Elliott has done this twice and one of those runners won.

Before I looked at the stats I was thinking I would drop Tico from my days bets, but having checked the numbers I think I'll leave him in.

The other runner that stands out is Crown Theatre at 40/1.

Gordon Elliott has had 18 runners at Perth that started at 22/1 or bigger, none have won!

Here is the full list of runners, so let's see if we can build on yesterdays profits…

14:45:00 Perth 2 Landau (IRE) – 11/2 Bet Victor
15:20:00 Perth 1 I C Gold (IRE) – 4/1 Bet Victor
15:20:00 Perth 3 Pumped Up Kicks (IRE) – 2/1 Sky Bet
15:55:00 Perth 3 Crown Theatre (IRE) – 40/1 Bet 365
17:00:00 Perth 2 Goal (IRE) – 4/1 Skybet
17:30:00 Perth 2 Tico (IRE) – 4/1 Sky Bet
18:00:00 Perth 4 Iffjack (IRE) – 8/1 Bet Victor

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Favourites That Win

Posted on September 17, 2014 by Dave French • 0 Comments

Today we have our regular weekly column from Malcolm Pett of GreyHorse Bot.

You can try the Grey Horse Bot including the systems creator for just £17, go to http://greyhorsebot.com

Here's Malcolm…

Favourites That Win

As you are probably already know the chances of a favourite winning a race is around 34%.

That figure can be influenced by other factors like race type and price and can drop to around 27% or rise to over 50%.

So why would I mention favourites?

We know there is no value in following them.

So what about if we look elsewhere?

What’s the win averages of the other runners?

2nd priced favourits win 20% of the time
3rd priced favourits win 14% of the time
3rd priced favourits win 10% of the time

Again this is based around all race types and all prices.

This means that nearly 80% of all winning horses come from one of the top 4 priced runners in a race.

 ”Yeah I know all this” I hear you say…

In my last Daily punt article I talked about what I call “Nano” systems.

This is where you look for specific types of races where you may be able to find profit.

So here is another example you may want to check out.

Using the SPB System Builder I found a trend based around 6 year old horses in class 6 running at Southwell.

If they have won at Southwell before at the exact (exact) distance they are running at again and they are favourite…then they have won 54 of the last 100 (qualifying) races resulting in a BSP profit of 37.46 points.

The system also appears to work at Kempton and Wolves but not to the same extent as it seems to at Southwell.

So although blindly following favourites is not a profitable pastime there are places you can find that appear to show a return.

Finding high strike profitable trends is interesting but as you can see you have to be pretty specific about the runners you choose.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

2.20 Yarmouth Spiriting – win bet – 9/4 Bet 365, Paddy Power

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All Weather Profits

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

More Perth Profits?

Favourites That Win