Tag Archives: Horse Race Base

First Time Headgear How To?

We had a few questions yesterday asking how we find horses that are wearing headgear for the first time.

I use Horse Race Base, in their Daily Cards section there is a Shortcuts link where they list a whole host of shortcuts, one of which is 1st Time Headgear.

If you're not a Horse Race Base user then there are other places to find these horses.

In the Racing Post race cards there is a letter after the horses name that indicates the use of headgear.

Headgear –
b=blinkers,
v=visor
e/s = eyeshield
h = hood
t = tongue-strap
p = sheepskin cheekpieces.

A superior 1 denotes 1st time headgear

Here's an example from today of a horse wearing a Visor for the first time…

Visor First Time

 

At the Sporting Life it's the same format but the indicator is located after the horse's weight…

Sporting Life Visor

 

But probably the best free way to find these horses is to use the Sporting Life' Today's Pointers page which you can find in the left hand menu of the racing section.

Or go direct using this link http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/pointers

On this page they have a section for horses wearing Blinkers for the first time and also a Cheekpieces section, which lists all horses wearing cheekpieces and you can find first timers by looking for the 1 after the ‘p'.

Finally for today there is a useful page on the Racing Post that explains how to read the racecard.

Here's the link http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/help.sd

Today's Selection

3:00 Southwell – Longside – Win Bet – 6/4 Bet Victor

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Lay the Frogs

Don't you just love it when you spend hours researching a system looking into an angle that you think will highlight some winners all for nothing.

Or worse still when you research a system and you think you've found a micro system with a little pocket of profit and you set it up in Horse Race Base to notify you of future runners and a year later it's had just seven qualifying bets and all seven have lost.

That's the results from a system I created last January and I've been waiting for some live results to prove it works before I write about it.

It looks like that day will never come 🙁

Whats worse still is that Derek Miller has just released a laying system that uses a similar angle to make big profits from laying.

It's not the same angle I was looking at, I was looking at French bred horses on one particular all weather course.

Derek's system is selecting French breds in National Hunt races, but it does serve to remind me that there are profits in following horses that are bred for different environments and that I knew that but I didn't find the profit.

And Derek has.

The good news, for you, is that the system is free.

You can get it here https://dailypunt.com/freelayingsystem

Today's selection

17:10 Wolverhampton Apparatchika – win bet – Evens Boylesports

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Grand National Tip :-o

Can I have more please? More Nick Hardman incites.

Yes it's Friday and this week Nick Hardman (http://bettinginsiders.com) has an improvement to yesterday's Southwell system, an ante post bet for the Grand National and an angle and selections for today's Cheltenham meeting.
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Yesterday we gave you a nice system for Keith Dalgleish’s handicap runners at Southwell. I was playing around with Horse Race Base and I found that we can improve on his already excellent performance at the Midlands track with a system that has a 50% strike rate in the last two years.

Using HRB I found that all bar one of his 19 winners at Southwell were in races at distances between 7f and 2m (his runners are 1-12 over 5f and 6f showing a loss of -£5.50).

In addition I found that Dalgleish has used 15 different jockeys for those 72 rides at Southwell. All the winners have been ridden by just three jockeys:

If we concentrate on 2013 and 2014 then we come up with a system showing a 50% strike rate in the last two years:

Rules: Keith Dalgleish runners at Southwell (AW) over 7f to 2m ridden by Tom Eaves or Simon Walker:

Runners = 30
Winners = 15
Places = 17
Win strike rate = 50%
Place strike rate = 57%
Profit/ Loss = +£62.41

When it comes to readying one for the Grand National, no one does it better than the McCain yard. This season their two Grand National horses appear to be Across The Bay and Kruzhlinin.

Jockey bookings (and finishing places) in the Becher Chase suggest Kruzhlinin is the stable first choice for the Big One. He was sent off at 33/1 to for the Becher Chase where he finished a never nearer, but highly respectable 7th.

I expected to see him at a similar price for the 2015 Grand National and could not believe that Skybet were offering 100/1. About 18 horses finish the Grand National these days and Kruzhlinin has shown that he gets round over these fences, having finished 10th back in April.

Effectively we are looking at 100/1 in an 18 runner race. Unfortunately Skybet have cut him to 50/1 but he is still available at 66/1 with a few firms. When I bet the Grand National I am primarily looking for a sound jumper with course experience and a fairly low weight.

Kruzhlinin ticks plenty of boxes and as apparent stable first string he rates decent ante-post value at 66/1.

Grand National ante-post tip: Kruzhlinin @66/1

Cheltenham’s December meeting kicks off today with the feature race being the Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday and unfortunately my ante-post fancies John’s Spirit and Present View are not lining up.

Paul Nicholls is the most successful trainer at the December meeting in recent times with 14 winners since 2010 (from 50 runners, 28% strike rate).

At the December meeting since 2010 he is 4-10 with his chasers in class 1 and 2 races that have run at Cheltenham 2 or more times.

He has the following entries that fit that profile:

Friday:

12.30pm Vivaldi Collonges (chase debut, likely outsider of the four)

Saturday

12.50pm Virak & Katgary
2.00pm Caid Du Berlais

Good luck if you are having a bet this weekend.

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Henderson Profit

So every Tuesday Horse Race Base send out an email that details how the systems that you have saved have performed since the day you saved them.

This morning as I do every week I reviewed the list to see what's working and what's not.

The first pleasing result was from the Nicky Henderson Debutant system we published at the beginning of November.

As you'll recall this was sent in by a reader, Derek.

Here are the results since we published the rules…

Runs = 9
Wins = 4
Strike Rate = 44%
Profit at industry SP = 12.25
ROI = 136%

So today's message is short and sweet, keep an eye on this system for more winter profits.

Here's a recap of the rules…

Run at one of these courses: Ascot, Cheltenham, Chepstow, Doncaster, Exeter, Ffos Las, Fontwell, Kempton, Newbury, Sandown, Stratford, Towcester, Uttoxeter, Wincanton

Race Distance is 2m6f or less

Horse is have it's first run and is trained by Nicky Henderson.

It's price is between Evens and 16/1.

It is 6 years old or younger.

And we only bet in the main season between October to March inclusive.

Today's Selection

3.40 Wolverhampton Sioux Chieftain – win bet 11/4 Bet Victor

 

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