Tag Archives: internet

Automated Betting

Today we have a new article from Malcolm Pett the creator of the Grey Horse Bot.

To find out more about the GreyHorse Bot visit Malcolm website here http://greyhorsebot.com
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Knowing when to say enough is enough…

One of the reasons I originally created the Grey Horse Bot is that it allowed me to automatically stop betting.

And it also stopped me chasing loses.

I started in the early days with greyhound racing (that’s where the “Grey” comes from) and I followed a “Stop at a winner” system.

The problem I had was that even after that first win I couldn’t help myself starting again.

There were so many Greyhound races everyday that if I won early, it was just too tempting not to try again.

Of course you know what happened next…

…I couldn’t get a winner.

This led to the second problem of not knowing when to cut my losses.

Creating the Grey Horse Bot allowed me to “set and forget” knowing full well the bot would either stop as soon as it got a winner or if I hit my stop loss.

The other problem with Greyhound racing is that Bags races happen every 10 minutes and it is so easy to miss a race when the phone rang or you start chatting to someone.

Even reading an email can be enough to take your attention away from the racing just long enough to miss a race.

Having the Grey Horse Bot do everything for me just made life a lot easier.
The next step was to run the bot on a VPS or server that was permanently attached to the internet at all times.

This meant I didn’t even have to think about the bot, day to day.
Our longest running test was over 6 month’s non-stop. It would have been longer except the server had to be reset for an important update.

Testing is a very important part of my day to day betting activity and although I am a great believer in “paper” testing and would suggest you always do this…
(The Grey Horse Bot does paper test as well.)

…It’s not until you actually bet live when you find out if the selections your following are going to produce a profit.

I think this is where automated betting comes into its own.

Having the ability to set aside part of your bank just for these selections and set a stake that is smaller than you would normally have to use, all helps in the testing process.

Here is an example.

In last week’s article I introduced a new test for a simple system I came up with using 2nd ranked runners based on the BSP early morning prices.

Here is the article.
http://dailypunt.com/one-winner-per-day/

So I set up a Grey Horse Bot on one of our servers and set aside a £10 bank for the test.

I like to use a % of bank as my start test stake.

This may not work well with all systems but I find it a good place to start.
And if the test goes well then your stake should naturally increases but if not, your stake drops.

If I know the strike rate of my system I normally work out the Longest Losing Run expected statistically, add a little and use the figure as my stop loss.

If not…I normally set it at an equivalent of around 20 to 30 points.

Your have to decide what’s best for you.

Once that’s done then all I have to is click “start” and let the bot do the rest.
The Grey Horse Bot can automatically download selections based on your own criteria or using the special links that are often given to our members when we start a new test.

The link contains a live feed that the bot checks every so often and if it finds new selections it automatically adds them ready to monitor.

There is a link in the member’s area for the test from last week’s article.

I love automation and it doesn’t get any better than this.

But best of all I no longer have to worry about missing races or stopping when I should, it is all done automatically.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm


The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:00 Bangor Clondaw Kaempfer – eachway bet 15/2 Bet Victor

Bet on Goals

I recently heard about this housewife gambler who is making good steady long term gains from football betting. Specifically betting on the over 2.5 goals market.

So I made contact with Louise and she agreed to write an article for us on why she bets in the over 2.5 goals market and why you should to.

Why You Should Consider Betting On Goals

Betting on the number of goals in a game allows you to win money without having to predict who will actually win the match. Typically that means betting over or under 2.5 goals at the outset of most games.

From a strategy point of view it is a style of betting that has both pros and cons, and a bet that will split the crowd amongst professional punters.

Some pros moan that it is hard enough predicting where the goals are likely to come from without worrying about how many goals you’ll see.

For people like me, looking at the number of goals produced per match is a much more reliable – and profitable – strategy than predicting who will score them.

I am a woman, clearly. I am a working mother of two and a maths graduate.

I can’t profess to be a football expert but what I do have though, is something that many so-called experts don’t have – a genuinely mathematical mind, and a degree to prove it.

My profitable betting, which I now share with my subscribers, takes advantage of the maths-based match analysis methods I have developed for use in the football goals betting markets – specifically Over 2.5 match goals.

What I like about this market is that, not only are goals ‘good’ from a predictive point of view but also that the bookmaker’s overround is less crippling than it is in other markets such as say 1X2, HT-FT or an antepost market like say the winner of The Grand National or The Champions League.

The overround is a very important concept in betting. It ensures bookies make a profit regardless of the outcome of an event and is the foundation of a bookie’s business. The concept bookmakers use to do this is simple, they offer all bettors lower odds than those they believe an outcome is truly worth. The overround is expressed as a percentage, with a 100% book representing a market where the bookmaker has no margin whatsoever. The higher the overround percentage is then the bigger profit is for the bookmakers. If the percentage goes below 100% then the bookmaker stands to lose money.

For example, if the over-round is 120% the bookmaker will expect to pay out £100 for every £120 pounds they take in, yielding them an expected profit of 20/120 = 16.7%.

With fixed odds for three possible outcomes in a football match bet – the home win, draw, and away win – a typical overround is between 107% to 112%. Indeed some Internet firms can go as high as 118% for games in obscure football leagues where they fear that individual punters can carry a far greater edge than their hard-pressed compilers.

As a rule of thumb, the greater the number of possible result permutations within a sporting event (or within one of its constituent parts, such as a scoreline), then the greater the bookmaker's overround will be.

A correct score bet in football can have as many as 24 possible options on which to bet. A typical overround for this type of bet may be anything from 130%-160%, depending on the bookmaker. You’d probably find something similar in a competitive big field horse race such as The Grand National.

In contrast to correct score betting, total goals betting in football, where there are only two possible outcomes (over 2.5 goals or under 2.5 goals), attracts overrounds that are commonly less than 110% and sometimes as low as 102% for a Premiership game, say, where the bookies are actively looking to attract a high volume of business.

The name of the game in betting is to minimise the bookmakers’ advantage at all times while playing up the impact of the things that are in your favour whether that’s stats, a value model like mine, or local knowledge about teams and players that can impact on a result.

With that in mind betting opportunities with just two potential outcomes are always worth looking at as both the strike rate and potential returns can be excellent for those with a demonstrable edge.

If you can get your head around betting on goals then the over 2.5 goals market is absolutely one of the best betting opportunities that currently exists.

Louise' Soccer Tips service has a number of selections for this weekends footy action and I have included one for you here…

League – England Premier
Kick Off Time – Saturday 1st November 12:45
Teams & Selection – Newcastle v Liverpool OVER 2.5
Prices Available – 1.78 Betvictor Pinnacle – 1.76 Marathonbet 188Bet – 1.73 Bet365 Sbobet Boylesports
Stake – 1.5pts
Oddsportal Link
After the number crunching on this game I reckon the true odds price to be around 1.60

To join Soccer Tips or to find out more about Louise and her service go to www.soccer-tip.co.uk

Today's Selection

2.40 Stratford Summer Storm – win bet – 13/8 Boylesports

Automated Betting – Virtual Private Servers

We had an email in yesterday asking about running bots on Virtual Servers, so I thought today I'd give a quick update on the Mystery Horse Bot and explain what a virtual server is and how to get one.

The Mystery Horse Bot has had 6 winning days and 3 losing days this month so far.

The profit this month is 12.36 points or £123.60 if you use £10 stakes.

The profit since it was first available on June 1st is 86.14 or £861.40 to £10 stakes.

There has been 1 losing month of 11.99 points.

There is now a cheaper version of the bot available and that costs £29.97 per month but restricts your stake to a maximum of £10 per month. There is also the option to increase that stake limit at any time by buying extra credit.

http://mysteryhorsebot.com

Virtual Private Server (VPS)

A VPS can be thought of as a computer that you can use that is located somewhere else.

That somewhere else will be a data centre and it will have back up power systems and multiple internet connections and will likely be guaranteed to be switched on and connected 99.9% of the time.

So why might you need this?

Using the Mystery Horse Bot(MHB) as an example. The MHB needs to be running all the time that UK racing is on. So that is typically between 1.30 until 9.30 each day.

So that means you will have to leave your PC switched on and connected to the internet. If you don't want to leave your PC running you can use a VPS.

So the VPS is a Windows PC that is running 24 hours a day 7 days per week and it is located in a data centre. You can access it through software called Remote Desktop Connection (RDC) (free for PC & Mac and available for tablets and smartphones).

When you connect with RDC you will see the screen of your virtual server and be able to operate it just as if you were sitting in front of it.

You would download your software direct to the VPS and start it running. In the case of the Mystery Bot it can be left running continuously for days on end, so you can leave it running for days and just check in every few days.

So where do you get a VPS, the most common supplier in the UK is Tagadab

The screenshot below shows the selections you should make at Tagadab to buy a server that will run the Mystery Horse Bot.

tagadab

Hopefully I've answered all your questions but if you have any further questions then ask me in the comments.

Lay Debutants

17:40:00 Kempton 7 Allegra Clairmont
17:40:00 Kempton 9 Puteri Kash
18:10:00 Kempton 12 Secret Hint

Today's Selection

3.20 Exeter Bishophill Jack – eachway bet – 9/1 Bet 365

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