Tag Archives: interview

John Gibby – Well Handicapped Horses

Today we have the first part of an interview with John Gibby the author of Well Handicapped Horses

We also have details of two of John’s well handicapped horses running today.

This interview was conducted by Steve Carter of the Betting School Insiders Club.


INTERVIEW WITH JON GIBBY

When did you first get interested in horse racing and betting?

Whilst living in Hong Kong between 1979/1980. My father and two elder brothers were regular visitors to the two racecourses (Sha Tin and Happy Valley) and I remember being impressed on the couple of occasions that they returned home and emptied some quite large amounts of money onto the dining-room table!

My first visit to a racetrack came a few years later when I was nineteen. That was when I came to believe that there was money to be made from betting on horses.

Although I lost what little money I had that day, by betting on horses that I liked the look of in the paddock, my brothers had been studying the form and they proceeded to go through the card.

The last winner (if memory serves me correctly) was a horse called Taskforce Victory which landed them a six horse accumulator and the Placepot and combined winnings of over £2000.

It was soon after that that I began to take a keen interest in the contents of the Sporting Life paper that they regularly bought and to start listening to what they had to say about form analysis!

Did your betting activities bring instant success or did it take a while to learn the ropes?

There was certainly no instant success. It took years before I began to show regular profits.

Both myself and my brothers spent years trying to develop those illusive winning systems but most of them were unceremoniously binned after the first inevitable losing run. I had a few decent successes with Lucky 15 bets which helped to recoup some of my losses but overall, although I didn’t keep records of every bet, I was certainly in deficit to the bookies.

The great majority of punters will spend years losing money whilst learning the trade and the great majority will continue to lose money because they can’t or don’t want to learn from their experience!

Were there any early influences that shaped your approach to successful betting?

Yes, without a doubt the biggest influence was Nick Mordin’s ground breaking book Betting for a Living.

Nick’s work was outstanding, primarily because it was such a huge step up on previous British racing literature. It was this book that showed me how to work out my own draw statistics and also introduced me to pace analysis. More importantly, it also helped me to discover that there were numerous excellent American books waiting to be read and works by authors such as Andy Beyer, Tom Ainslie, William Quirin and Tom Brohammer completely transformed my understanding of form.

How would you best sum up your own style of betting?

Periodic and selective. I don’t bet professionally and I am still in the same full-time occupation that I joined twenty-five years ago. For me, betting has been, and always will be, a hobby that I aim to make a few thousand pounds out of each year, whether that be by writing books or by betting. Because of my job (which involves shift work) I don’t have the time or the energy to commit to the necessary amount of form study over long periods of time.

I tend to give it maximum effort from April through to July, betting exclusively on the Flat and then I will have just an occasional dabble during the rest of the year.

I also bet selectively. I identify horses that I believe to be well-handicapped (and therefore probable future winners) and I keep a list of them to follow. Most of them are lightly raced three-year-olds which I look to back in the first half of the season (whilst they remain well-handicapped).

Most of my analysis is done when looking at the results pages published in the Weekender every Wednesday. I scour the results looking for horses that have run well despite being disadvantaged by the various biases that are present to varying degrees in each and every race. I am also looking out for horses that have clocked fast times. For a fuller explanation of the methodology, readers will have to buy my latest book!

What led you to writing your first book “Betting on Flat Handicaps?”

I used to subscribe to the weekly publication Raceform Update and I particularly enjoyed reading the letters and systems submitted by readers to the Sports Forum page. About sixteen years ago I began sending in my own letters.

They seemed to be well received in the main and because I was making good profits at the time from the methodology I was using I decided to take it a step further and write a book. I sent in a couple of chapters to Raceform with an explanation of what would be in the remainder of the book and to my surprise they said ‘yes’!

How was your own P&L affected by the disclosure of the methods described in the book?

It is difficult to know. The method I used then was built around my knowledge of draw bias, which for a good few years gave me a significant edge over the majority of other punters.

That began to diminish as more and more people became aware of the power of the draw and the odds about the well-drawn runners started to tumble. Perhaps my book contributed to that to some extent, but I think that Graham Wheldon’s books about the draw, which were published around that time, were more influential in changing people’s perceptions.

More generally, I would say that it is a truism that winning methods normally have a limited lifetime because inevitably other people will catch on to them and they eventually become over bet as a consequence.

The game keeps slowly changing and you have to keep adapting your methods in an attempt to stay one step ahead of other punters. There is of course no guarantee that you can keep successfully doing that and that is why I have always been reluctant to risk packing up the day job in favour of full-time punting.

In your opinion where does the average every day punter go wrong given that the statistics generally quote that 98% make a loss?

They bet in too many races and on the wrong type of horse. Most people would improve their chance of success if they became a lot more selective and put more money on fewer bets. Another truism in my view is that you cannot construct good bets every time you open the Racing Post, but instead you have to wait for them to come along.

I am reminded of this most years during Royal Ascot week and the Cheltenham Festival. I meet up with one of my brothers and we treat the weeks as a bit of fun and try to find the winner of every race. More often than not we fail dismally!

In part two tomorrow John talks about his current methods for finding winners.

There are two of John’s well handicapped horses running today…


Today’s Selections courtesy of Well Handicapped Horses

4.00pm Nottingham – Future Security

Related to five winners and cost 160,000gns as a yearling. He was a relatively late foal (April 8) and will make a better 3yo once he matures and based on his 2yo form he gave the impression that he might make into Listed class.

This season he won a class 4 3yo handicap at Bath in early August and finished down the field next time out in the very hot class 2 Melrose Stakes at York. Last time out having been close up he weakened out of it on his first run on firm going and has been dropped a couple of pounds in the handicap. The forecast going today is good to soft and he drops back to a trip more in line with his two wins to date which were over 9f and 10f. Has proven form in the conditions and the ease in class may be able to bring out a return to form for this lightly raced colt should he take his chance.

13/2 Bet365 – win bet

8.30pm Kempton – Eraada

Related to no less than 12 winners including the 118 rated Almutawake so she has a lot to live up to. Being by Medician she is probably going to be suited by a sound surface. She won on her final start as a 2yo in a maiden at Catterick over 7f and did well from a poor draw. Hopefully she will get better with age and a rating of 73 looks manageable.

So far this season two runs have not shown much and she now runs off a mark of 69. Interestingly she is upped in trip to 11f for the first time having not into either of her starts over 7f and 8f as a 3yo and the trainer certainly knows the time of day when it comes to trip. This is her easiest assignment and given she stays then may have a lively chance.

14/1 Bet365 – each way bet

Jumping Propects 2015

Jumping ProspectsToday I'm looking at a book called Jumping Prospects that has been recommended to me.

It is written by racing stalwart John Morris.

The book is priced at £15 and was published late September and is aimed at those who like to follow trainers and also spot a few big priced winners that are under the radar.

There is comprehensive coverage of 21 Trainers along with comments on 475 of the horses in their care.

There are also ‘stable eyecatchers’ at the end of each interview to help you focus on those the author really likes.

Last year’s edition produced 242 winners and included winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1.

This is the 23rd edition of the book and clearly offers something that is worthwhile to many.

Here's the edited highlights of the Amazon blurb…

21 Stable Interviews with various jumps trainers including: Kim Bailey, Ali Stronge, rebecca Curtis, James Ewart, Harry Fry, Warren Greatrex, Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Longsdon, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Dr Richard Newland, Ben Pauling, Oliver Sherwood, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, Tom Symonds, Colin Tizzard, Robert Walford.

John says: “Once again I have visited some of the major jumping stables along with other horses that might slip under the radar. The energy you pick up from my stable tour will fuel your betting tank for a long, long time!”

The Jumping Prospects book is guaranteed to uncover many winners during the autumn and winter jumps season.

When you purchase your copy of Jumping Prospects it will pay for YOUR outlay many times over, as it has the answers to future winners likely to appear during the jumps campaign.

You can obtain a copy by visiting http://www.dailypunt.com/jumpingprospects 

Today's Selection

9.10 Kempton Fiftyshadesofgrey – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

Pro Gambler Interview

Today we have a free PDF from the Secret Betting Club which features a few reviews of tipping services.

Including a free tipster and a £10 per month tipster.

Pro Gambler Interview

The PDF also includes an interview with Peter Green, who is a winning gambler.

The interview details the early days of Peter's career where he paid the price of naivety.

It then goes on to detail how Peter turned things around with the help of tipsters.

The second interview with a guy called Rowan includes details of the services that he uses to make a part time profit from betting.

You can get the free pdf by clicking here

Today's Selection

3.20 Plumpton Amazing Scenes – eachway bet – 9/1 Paddy Power, Sky Bet

I Thought I Saw a Pussy Cat

Today we have a preview of the weekends football action and Premier League football tips from Tipster Warehouse…

Weekend Football Preview

The race for the Premier League crown was thrown wide open again last weekend as Chelsea surprisingly lost to Aston Villa 1-0. The Villans were good value for their win and although Jose Mourinho was unlucky to lose Willian to a farcical second yellow card he can have no complaints at the straight red shown to Ramires.

Jose likes to mask his side’s poor performances – rare as they are – by always deflecting the blame to a third party but neutrals will have seen that his side failed to turn up until it was too late in this game. Fortunately this is this Premier League and his team get the chance to rectify that this weekend as they face one of their main challengers to the title, Arsenal.

This Saturday really is crunch time for the Gunners as they travel the short distance to Stamford Bridge. A loss for Arsene Wenger will psychologically damage them far more than the loss of points.

With only a handful of games left to play Arsenal, if they are to be champions, need to snatch all three points from this game and put themselves in a position to win the title.

If Chelsea do win then they will effectively chalk off one of their main rivals from the run in. A draw is the likely scenario for this one I fear as both sides will probably realise the importance of the match and this may stifle any free flowing attacking football.

Chelsea remain in the box seat with points on the board but all three chasing teams can and I expect will help to make this the most exciting four way title run in for many a year.

Unusually for a Premier League so dependent on Sky TV schedules we witness all four top clubs playing on a Saturday this weekend. Both Liverpool and Manchester City face what on paper would seem to be easy matches, three points Sir, thank you very much.

Luis Suarez and his Reds travel to second bottom club Cardiff who despite a change of manager seem to be doomed. The Bluebirds (playing in red) have competed well at times this season but in the end it’s a sad but true reality that the big money clubs will always over the long term succeed.

That said this league is so exciting because of its pure competitiveness. However, form wise the reds are on fire at the moment and all the sensible money will be on an away win and several goals racked up to Messrs Sturridge and Suarez along the way.

The Citizens of Manchester enjoy an easy afternoon as bottom club Fulham visit the Etihad.

Felix Magath may have notched up his first win since taking charge – a narrow 1-0 victory over Newcastle last weekend but that can’t hide the fact that it was their first three points in ten games and they travel to the most exciting team in the land at the moment.

The goals may have temporarily dried up for City of late with only three in their last four games but this must surely be a blip. I expect them to re-light their fires very soon and this will be the ideal opportunity for them to bang in a few goals. I see them winning by three or four goals and continuing to breathe down Jose Mourinho’s neck.

With both Cardiff and Fulham looking increasing likely to be relegated this season unless they can re-invigorate their season immediately the last relegation place will be decided by one of seven clubs.

I would guess that 40 points is the cut off point for safety and with eight of nine games left for most clubs I see Stoke City on 34 points now clear of danger. They should pick up 6 points in their last 8 matches.

Below them and any side with a run of bad form can be dragged down. Sunderland currently occupy the danger spot but with their recent cup exploits have acquired two to three games in hand on those around them.

This Saturday they travel to one of their nearest relegation rivals Norwich City. A win for Gus Poyet and his team of battlers will put them one point behind the Canaries with three games in hand. Surely if they can get into this position it will be harder for them to fall into the Championship than see their way into next seasons Premier League?

Of the other teams faced with the drop Swansea and Crystal Palace travel to awkward places where they will do well to pick up any points – Everton and Newcastle respectively.

West Ham play a resurgent Manchester United fresh from a fine win in midweek. However, you never quite know what side the red devils will put out in the Premier League- their trouncing at Old Trafford at the hands of fierce rivals Liverpool last week will have hurt them badly.

How will they respond? I expect they will in turn hurt the Hammers chances of staying up with a resounding win.

The last Saturday match pits rivals for the drop Hull against West Brom. Baggies boss Pepe Mel was so pleased last week to pick up his first win since taking the reins after a fine away victory in Swansea.

His advisers may need to explain the English language a little to him though since his claim in his post match interview to have “pleasured all of his fans” was perhaps a surprise to some who were expecting to be just watching a football match!

The Sunday televised games seem on paper to fall a little flat this weekend as firstly Tottenham play Southampton in their race to hang on to a fifth place spot in the renowned Europa League and mid table clubs Aston Villa and Stoke battle it out to pull away from any slight chance of relegation.

With both clubs on 34 points surely the winner here will now consider their place in the Premier League safe for another season. The loser will have to wait a few games to make their position safe.

Top Tips

If you’re feeling particularly lucky this weekend you could go for a double with Cardiff and Fulham both winning. A £1 bet would return £144 with Cardiff at 8/1 and Fulham 18/1 but if you’re a tad more realistic then wins for Liverpool at 5/11 and Man City at 1/6 may put a few more pounds in your bank at the end of the games.

There are also some generous odds to be had on an away win for Arsenal at 7/2 which given Chelsea’s blip last week could be interesting but my top tip this week is a away win for Sunderland at Norwich. This is an eminently winnable match for the Black Cats and you can still pick up odds of 11/4 on this.

To find out more about Tipster Warehouse and to get more free tips Click Here.

Today's Selection Courtesy of Racing Gold (£1 trial available)

3.35 Lingfield – Picansort – win bet – 4/1 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close