Tag Archives: IRE

Football and Racing Tips

We managed a return from last weeks football bet but alas no profit.

Hopefully better luck this week, I know full members landed a five fold acca on the Home Win perm.

You can try the full TAPS service for a full month for free here

On the Racing front we have Nick's Haydock selection as well as a whole heap of qualifiers from the Headgear and Tongue Tie systems that we are testing.

Football Selections

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'

(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

SUNDERLAND
IPSWICH
MK DONS
CELTIC
INVERNESS

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…

Coral

This will return about £92 for £1 stakes if succesful.

Racing Selections

Haydock 14:55 Grand National Trial – Harry The Viking @20/1 (e/w) (Now best price 16/1)

Headgear System Selections (Paper trading)

15:20 Gowran Park Tiger Roll (IRE)
15:50 Ascot Rajdhani Express
16:25 Gowran Park Followmeuptocarlow (IRE)
16:40 Wincanton Gunna Be A Devil (IRE)

Tongue Tie System Selections (Paper trading)

13:40 Gowran Park Posh Frock (IRE)
13:55 Wincanton Opening Batsman (IRE)
14:30 Wincanton Heres Herbie
14:40 Ascot Hey Big Spender (IRE)
16:00 Haydock Fletchers Flyer (IRE)
16:10 Wincanton Memphis Magic (GER)

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Football and Racing Tips

Today we have a football perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate.

This week I've picked the away perm.

I am allowed to pick one of their bets each week to give away here and frankly I've picked the wrong one for the last couple of weeks.

Hopefully this week I've picked a winner.

This bet returns £58 for £1 stakes.

TAPS run a daily racing and sports tipping service and you can try it for a full month for free here https://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
CHELSEA
LIVERPOOL
MAN UTD
DUNDEE UTD
HEARTS
The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
Stan James
Racing Selections

There's four bets today from the First Time Headgear system. So far there have only been two selections and one win…

13:15 Newbury Bouvreuil (FR) 9/2 Paddy Power
14:25 Newbury Unioniste (FR) 4/1 Bet 365
15:35 Newbury Calipto (FR) 15/2 Betfred
16:15 Naas Dollar And A Dream (IRE) 5/1 Betfred

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National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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Weekend Racing Tips

Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (https://dailypunt.com/nickhardman) keeps sending winners our way and this week he looks at today's Doncaster card and tomorrows Aintree feature…

Weekend Racing Tips

Our mud-larks ran well at Ascot last weekend with Madame Chiang being the highlight winning at 12/1.  Betfair backers would have been nicely rewarded with an SP of 18.

Not a lot of action this Friday, but I want to highlight the performance of Luca Cumani at Doncaster this season and he has a number of runners this afternoon.

We will also be taking a look at the Old Roan Chase from Aintree that takes centre stage on Saturday.

Luca Cumani is having a solid season and one track where he has done particularly well is Doncaster.  Here are his statistics at the Yorkshire course this season to date:

Runs: 21

Wins: 8

Strike rate (% win): 38%

Strike rate (% place): 62%

Profit to level £1 stakes: £13.51

On Friday he runs:

1.50pm Dreamlike

3.30pm Sleeper King @25/1 (e/w ¼ odds, 5 places)

4.05pm Norway Cross @6/1

4.40pm Kleo @5/1

Dreamlike is a 2yo and Cumani has not had a 2yo winner at the course in the last 5 seasons (0-11). 

I would not be overly concerned by that statistic as he has only had the two 2yo runners up at Doncaster this season.

Overall his juveniles are 7-34 this year at a highly respectable strike rate of 21%. 

Dreamlike made an encouraging debut and there is likely more to come.  The market could be quite informative of her chances and she could go well at a price. 

Sleeper King has failed to progress from a promising 2yo campaign and he has shown nothing in 4 starts this year (form figures 0000).  However, this is his first run for Cumani having previously been with Kevin Ryan.  Caution is advised if you decide to back him. 

Norway Cross is interesting up in trip having won at Windsor last time out and Kleo is still unexposed after two wins this season and a LTO fourth in a Listed race at Yarmouth in September.  These two appear to have the best chances of the quartet.

The jumps season is starting to gather momentum and this Saturday sees the Old Roan Chase at Aintree. 

This year’s renewal looks wide open and a case can be made for many including current favourite Uxizandre, Module, Rajdhani Express and last year’s winner Conquisto. 

At the prices I think there is a bit of value in Conquisto to retain his crown if the ground stays good. 

A lot of the higher rated horses in this race will have other targets such as the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Cheltenham festival whereas this looks like Conquisto’s main target. 

He is 4lbs lower than when winning this last year and I think he could well have been laid out for this. 

As an each-way alternative then Astracad could outrun his price, especially as he seems to save some of his better performances for Aintree (including a decent 2nd in this last year). 

In 2013 he ran in a 2 ½ mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham October meeting a week before lining up for this.  He has followed exactly the same path this year and with the Twiston-Davies horses running well he can give each-way backers a decent run for their money. 

If the rain arrives and there is a change in the going to soft then Wishfull Thinking would have to enter calculations.  His last 3 wins have come on heavy, soft and soft going.  He is rated 162 but he won twice off this mark last season.

Saturday Aintree 3.00pm

Conquisto @7/1 (if the ground remains good)

Each-way alternatives: Astracad @14/1 & Wishfull Thinking @14/1 (soft or worse) 

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