Tag Archives: Ireland

Free National Hunt System

Thanks for your comments on yesterday's article I have more on the Willie Mullins runners today.

Willie Mullins

The first question asked in the comments was what are the returns if we only back the runners that carry the top jockeys at the most profitable tracks?

Well the answer is that you get a reduction in bets down to just 56 since January 1st 2013 but that you get a return on investment of a healthy 53%, so that's good.

But what I notice when I look at the performance at the various tracks when Ruby or Paul ride is that a lot more tracks move into the profitable side of the table.

And that if we add in those other tracks where a profit has been made then we can get the number of bets up over 200.

In fact we get 229 runs, 109 wins, 64.93 profit and 28.35% Return on Investment.

By the way most of the profit comes from Paul Townend, because when Ruby rides the horse is always overbet and the price starts much shorter 🙁

Anyway here's what we have now (results are from 1st January 2013 to yesterday)

National Hunt, Hurdle Races in Ireland at one of the following courses

Ballinrobe, Fairyhouse, Galway, Leopardstown, Limerick, Naas, Navan, Punchestown,
Sligo, Thurles, Tipperary or Wexford

Horse Trained by Willie Mullins

Horse ridden by Ruby Walsh or Paul Townend

Postion in market equals 1 to 4

Runs = 229
Wins = 109
Strike Rate = 47.6%
Profit at iSP = 64.93
Return on Investment = 28.35%

Today's Selection

6.40 Wolverhampton Deebaj – win bet 11/10 Paddy Power

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National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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Football and Racing

Today we have a football acca and an interesting observation from Peter Hawkeye that might find us some winners at Chester.

First don't forget to make your Sky Super 6 entry for an absolutely free chance to win a quarter million pounds.

http://dailypunt.com/super6

We've got a football perm from The Alternative Punters Syndicate again, these bets havent hit form yet, but last year we had a fair few collections around the £100 mark from £1 per bet stakes.

TAPS has been successfully tipping since 1996 and you can trial their racing and sports selections for free here http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways'
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
MAN CITY
NORWICH
CELTIC
MORTON
BERWICK

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways' are available with…
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Peter Hawkeye

You can trial Peter's tipping service for a full month for just £7.99 here http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

I always find it interesting when Irish trainers make the trip over to the UK mainland for certain middle of the road kind of meetings and with horses that seem not to have been in the best form over in Ireland.

Today I noticed that John Patrick Shanahan has a few runners at Chester, a course he has done well at before.

So it may pay to take a close look at those runners and hopefully one or two can pop up at decent prices.

The entries he has are…

1:55 Fragile Earth
2:30 Bethany Bay – 14/1 Bet 365
3:05 Maid Of The Glens – 25/1 Bet 365
3:40 Dolce N Karama
5:25 Drummore Road – 6/1 Bet Victor

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Goodwood and Galway – Tips

It's an exciting and busy week in the world of racing with the Goodwood Festival this side of the sea and the Galway Festival over in Ireland.

Below I have an angle and selection for you at Goodwood. But first I want to tell you how you can get selections for every race at Galway and Goodwood for just a tenner.

Carl Nicholson's Value Backing Daily service bets through the card at meetings every day and this week they will have selections in every race at Galway and Goodwood.

Each meeting costs 1 Value Backing credit to access and credits can be bought for as little as 59 pence each if bought in bulk. But even at full cost of just £1 each that is only £9 for every race at Goodwood and Galway this week.

Buy your credits or log in here http://valuebacking.com/daily

Now I have an angle and stats from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders. Nick will be analysing every race at Goodwood this week and these races will be discussed in the Betting School members area – http://bettinginsiders.com.

 

I’ve been looking at the performance of outright favourites at Goodwood and uncovered a useful pointer for the coming festival. Backing favourites blindly is the road to ruin but the performance of 2yo favourites in 5f and 6f non-handicap races at Goodwood shows a terrific strike rate.

Goodwood: 2010 – 2014
Race distance: 5f and 6f (non-handicaps)
Age: 2yo
Outright favourites

Goodwood Outright Favourites

Most of those favourites have been provided by the Hannon yard:

Hannon Favourites

Those Hannon favourites ridden by Richard Hughes show a fantastic strike rate:

Hannon - Hughes Favourites

Hannon and Hughes team up on Beacon in the Molecombe Stakes on Tuesday at 2.30pm. I expect this one to go off as favourite.

Today's Selection

Goodwood 2.30 Beacon – win bet – 10/11 Will Hill

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