Tag Archives: itch

Football and Racing Tips

Our football bet last week came in with 4 out of 5 bets successful and a £33 return for our £11 staked, which is nice but what we want is all 5 winning for a three figure return.

This week we have to head lower down the leagues, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing as we have had some success in previous seasons with the lower league selections.

First though a reminder to do your Sky Super 6 for a chance to win £250,000 with nothing to pay – http://dailypunt.com/super6

And a reminder that Nick posted up selections for the Cesarewitch yesterday http://dailypunt.com/cesarewitch-tips/

If you want more Cesarewitch analysis there is a trends breakdown for free on this page http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/cesarewitch

Here are the football selections from The Alternative Punters Syndicate (Click here to trial their racing and football bets for free for one month)

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways’
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)

COVENTRY
BURY
HEARTS
BRECHIN
QUEENS PARK

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways’ are available with…
William Hill

Cesarewitch Tips

Today we have our weekly look at the weekends racing action from Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman)

Nick has set us up with some nice winners this season and today he tries to find us the winner of the Cesarewitch to add to his tally…

Last week we highlighted in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon. He bagged us a winner that day and has followed up with another in midweek. He is still a trainer I want to keep on-side in the early part of the season and he sends a few runners to Carlisle today.

He has a decent strike rate at the track too with 6 winners from 19 runners. He has the following entries on Friday:

Charlie Longsdon Carlisle runners Friday 10/10/2014

3.10pm Drop Out Joe
3.45pm Orange Nassau
4.20pm Simply The West
5.20pm Deadly Move

Cesarewitch Tips

On to Saturday and we have the last of the big handicaps in the Cesarewitch.

Having already landed the Ebor and Cambridgeshire it is a tall order to land the hat-trick but I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t at least share my thoughts.

This race has gone to some big priced winners in recent times including winners at 66/1, 66/1 and 25/1 in the last three renewals.

Weight and official ratings do not tell us much regarding potential winners but, with the exception of Scatter Dice last year, the previous 10 winners had winning form over 2m or further.

Hurdlers have finished in the top two in 13 of the last 17 renewals. Other strong trends include a top 4 finish last time out and no more than 7 runs in the season. That helps reduce the field to 9.

One who ticks plenty of boxes is Big Easy for Philip Hobbs and the trainer knows what it take to win this having done so with Detroit City in 2006.

Big Easy looks to have solid credentials having finished runner-up in the trial race 3 weeks ago. That was his first flat run of the season and he should come on bundle for the run and he has a nice draw in stall 2.

Another who is guaranteed to stay is Chester Cup winner Suegioo. He last two runs have been over trips shorter than 2 miles and I think he will relish every yard of this trip. He was also a fine 2nd in the Northumberland Plate over 2 miles and that race is a good pointer for horses who run well in the Cesarewitch.

Another with solid prospects is Swnymor who has to turn the form around with hotpot favourite Quick Jack, but he takes him on here on much better terms (16lbs better to be exact).

My only concern is his wide draw in stall 34 but with several bookmakers paying 6 places he is still worth an each-way interest.

If you fancy taking something at a bigger price then the ultra-consistent Noble Silk, a good 4th in the Northumberland Plate, should give you a run for your money 33/1.

Nicky Henderson trained the winner of this in 2008 and Kieron Fallon rode the winner in 2012. They team up on Earth Amber @33/1 and any rain would help his cause, although he is another from our short list who has been done no favours by the draw (stall 33).

Saturday Newmarket 3.50pm

Trends horses: Big Easy @12/1 & Suegioo @16/1

Alternatives: Swnymor @16/1, Earth Amber @33/1 & Noble Silk @33/1

Draw Bias

Beverley is a course that is known for it’s draw bias.

And my research does confirm that there is an advantage to a low draw (1 or 2) especially at 5 furlongs.

But there has been lots of discussion and attempts to balance this out over the years.

So although there is an advantage and it is a positive if the horse you fancy is drawn 1 or 2 I don’t see a profit from simply following low drawn horses here.

As with all these things you’re more likely to find profit where others don’t look.

While looking at the course layouts for todays meetings I noticed that at Hamilton the 1 mile and 1 mile 1 furlong starts are on a bend.

Often a draw bias comes about as a result of the way the water drains from the course and it is hard to correct. And is usually believed to only effect shorter distances.

But to me the draw advantage that gets overlooked is when it effects longer distances and that usually happens when the starting stalls are on a bend and a lead is an advantage.

So I’ve looked at the figures for Hamilton.

If you just backed runners from stall 1 over 1 mile or 1 mile 1 furlong then over the last 11 years you would have made an 8% return on investment at industry SP.

I suspect those profits would be much larger at Betfair Sp because there are some big priced winners in the list.

The strike rate for stall 1 over these distances has fluctuated greatly over the years and I have an old Raceform book from 2004 that declares that high stalls are favoured over these distances.

So it might be that work has gone on to change the bias and it has switched.

But looking at 2012, 2013 and this year shows a huge profit for stall 1 with a 70% ROI and a strike rate up to 20%.

So this seems to be a current bias and one worth taking note of.

Today’s races at the distance are 2.40 & 3.40.

Today’s Selection

Hamilton 2.40 Incurs Four Faults – win bet – 7/2 Bet Victor

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