Tag Archives: Lady

Trends and Tips

Here's our regular Friday column from the excellent Nick Hardman of Betting Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman )

Goldencents (adv 5/4) and Lady Eli (adv 13/2) got us off to a flyer last weekend, the latter putting in an awesome display of speed to win going away from the field.

We followed that up on Saturday with Aurore D’Estruval annihilating her small field. She was widely available at 11/8 before being backed into odds-on favouritism.

This week we will take a trends look at the November handicap from Doncaster and a quick preview of the Wentworth Stakes and Badger Ales Trophy. First we focus on a trainer with an impressive strike rate at Musselburgh.

The man in question is Donald McCain Jr. He has had more winners at Musselburgh over the jumps than any other trainer in the last 5 years.

His 29 winners have come from 102 runners at a strike rate of 28% and a level stakes profit of £32.25.

His handicap hurdlers at Musselburgh underperform compared to his other runners (2-29, 7% strike rate; level stakes loss -£22.75).

If we remove those runners then his stats look like this:

D. McCain Jr – chase, bumper and non-handicap hurdle runners at Musselburgh 2010 – 2014:

Runners: 73
Winners: 27
Strike Rate: 37%
Level stakes profit: £55.00

He has the following runners this Friday up at Musselburgh:

1.00pm Al Musheer (Juvenile Hurdle)
1.30pm Master Dee (Maiden Hurdle)
2.30pm Welsh Bard (Handicap Chase)
4.00pm Gingili (NH Flat)

Those stats were further boosted by 5/1 winner Roserrow on Thursday in a Novice Hurdle.

If you want to dig a little deeper, then I can tell you that D. McCain Jr is 5-22 (23% strike rate) in handicap chases, 12-33 (36%) in non-handicap hurdle races and 4-7 (57%) in NH flat races at Musselburgh since 2010.

Saturday sees a decent flat card at Doncaster with the highlight being the November handicap. I have run through the trends and we are looking for a horse rated 93 – 99 (all of the last 10 winners), aged 4yo to 6yo (7 of the last 8 winners), carrying 8st 10lbs to 9st 2lbs (all of the last 7 winners), won over 1m 4f or further and has raced in the last 60 days.

No favourite has obliged since 1995 and all of the last 7 winners were drawn in stall 9 or higher.

A top 4 finish LTO accounts for 13 of the last 17 winners and at least 4 runs that current season accounts for 16 of the last 17 winners. Putting all that together leaves us with:

Doncaster November handicap trends horses:

Esteaming @16/1 and Manhattan Swing @16/1

Elsewhere on Saturday, if the word “good” disappears from the current “good to soft” going then Jack Dexter will be in his element on a track where his form figures read 1113 on soft ground and he would be my pick in the Wentworth Stakes.

He put in his best run of the season on Champions Day (heavy ground) when 3rd behind Gordon Lord Byron and Tropics. This represents a drop in class for Tropics and Jack Dexter and they would both have to seriously misfire for one of them not to take this.

The Badger Ales Trophy looks highly competitive again this year and Standing Ovation has a great chance of retaining his crown.

He is 3-3 at Wincanton and although he went off the boil after landing this in 2013, he appeared back to his best LTO at Cheltenham when 2nd to Roalco De Farges.

Standing Ovation’s trainer David Pipe has won this race three times since 2007.

Even more impressive is Paul Nicholls who has won this 7 times since 1999. He has two entries, Benvolio and Just A Par. However, both make their seasonal reappearances here and the Nicholl’s horses have tended to need a run this season.

Lamb Or Cod represents the in-form Philip Hobbs and he loves good ground. If it stays good he will be a major player.

Alfie Spinner is closely matched on recent running with Standing Ovation and could run well at an each-way price.

On a final note, three weeks ago we gave you a couple of Godolphin microsystems for the all-weather racing at Kempton.

So far these two systems have pulled in 9.82pts profit at SP so keep an eye out for the Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor runners at Kempton in the coming months.

All the best Nick

http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman

Breeders Cup Tips

It's Friday and so we have our regular look at the weekend racing from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders (http://dailypunt.com/nickhardman )

We had another decent return last week with Kleo faring best of our Cumani runners at Doncaster, winning her race at 11/2. Wishfull Thinking (adv 14/1) was one of our each-way alternatives in the Old Roan Chase with the caveat his chances would increase with the arrival of any rain.

As it happens he bolted up on good ground with not a drop of rain in sight. This Friday we will take a look at the Breeders’ Cup and we have a selection from the Charlie Hall Chase meeting from Wetherby.

To me the Breeders’ Cup is one of those meetings where a small wager can increase your enjoyment of watching it, rather than it being a serious punting mission like Royal Ascot or the Cheltenham Festival. The main action takes place on Saturday but one horse I like runs on Friday in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Much is often made of the European runners being better on turf than their American counterparts but on this occasion I am siding with the home filly Lady Eli. Unbeaten in two starts she has had the same prep as her trainer’s previous winner in this race, namely Maram in 2008, including a win in the recognised trial race The Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont. She has the finishing kick to go close here. Osaila looks the best of the Europeans.

Goldencents looks to have a massive chance in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and I am happy to have him onside at 5/4. He has most things in his favour here and for once I will side with a favourite as he bids to defend his crown.

Breeders Cup Friday
Juvenile Fillies Turf – Lady Eli @13/2
Dirt Mile – Goldencents @5/4

On Saturday Silviniaco Conti should win the Charlie Hall Chase in what is an above average renewal, but 5/4 is plenty short enough for what is essentially a prep run.

Earlier on the card I will have a couple of quid on Aurore D’Estruval in the mares hurdle. She is a course and distance winner and acquitted herself well in two subsequent starts at Haydock (subsequent Fred Winter winner Hawk High tailed off in last place) and at Aintree when 5th in a Grade 1 won by Guitar Pete. This is a Listed race and back against her own sex she can go well.

Back to the USA and I make Dank the standout bet in the Filly and Mare Turf. She has been kept in training this season with this race her prime objective. Not only will she get her firm ground but she will once again have the services of Ryan Moore, undoubtedly the best jockey on the planet right now. Add to that the positive vibes from the Stoute yard about her well-being and she has to be top of most people’s shortlist. I make her my NAP for Saturday’s action.

Elsewhere, Daredevil could take some pegging back in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and 3/1 looks a fair price.

Saturday

Wetherby 2.05pm – Aurore D’Estruval

Breeders’ Cup
Filly and Mare Turf – Dank @9/4
Juvenile – Daredevil @3/1

Big Profit from Multiples

Do you bet in multiples?

Doubles, trebles or acca's (accumulators)?

I have always been of the opinion that these types of bets are just for the bookies benefit and have always avoided them, even though there is a promise of huge profits if they come off.

I do remember a few years back reading an article about how if you are making value bets, if you combine them into doubles or trebles that you magnify the advantage that you have because the value multiplies. But that didnt change my methods.

The results from yesterday's Racing Consultants tips have caused me to think again.

Yesterday they gave three selections to be combined into a half point each way Trixie.

A Trixie is 3 doubles (eachway doubles in this case) and a treble, so four bets.

The guys managed to land 2 of the bets, the advised prices were 6/1 and 9/1 (there was a 10p rule 4 on the 6/1)

A £5 eachway Trixie where only two of the horses won paid £376, which is a £336 profit!

That's a big return from getting just two bets home.

But the thing that really surprised me is that if they had got all three home the return would have been £5,620 for a £40 outlay.

(The non runner was 11/1)

I need to re-think my betting and staking strategy.

Do you bet in multiples? Tell me in the comments, if you've had any big wins tell me that also.

Find out more about the Racing Consultants here http://racingconsultants.co.uk

Today's Selection

4.00 Newcastle – Lady Bingo – win bet – 4/1 Bet 365

Salisbury Trainer Trends

Today Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders Club takes a look at key trends for both jockeys and trainers at the Salisbury meeting.

Don't forget you can get free winning tips from the Betting School every weekend when you register on their site at http://betting-school.com.

Our Friday column was on the money last week with Nunthorpe winner Sole Power @7/2 and Ebor winner Mutual Regard @25/1. Hopefully a few of you were on. This week we take a look at Salisbury and some of the profitable trainers to make a note of. We also highlight a bang in-form trainer who looks worth following at Chester on Saturday.
First to Salisbury and standing head and shoulders above the rest is Lady Jane Cecil who continues the great work of her late husband. Since 2010 the Cecil yard has had 12 winners from 29 runners for a level stakes profit of £11.57 at the Wiltshire track. Most of the winners have come in non-handicap races and if we concentrate on their 3yo and 4yo non-handicap runners then the figures are 8-17 at a strike rate (SR) of 47% and a level stakes profit of £13.08. Six of their last nine runners at the track have won.

PD Evans has sent out the highest number of winners at the track with 19 in the last 5 seasons at a strike rate of 16%. That strike rate increases to 23% (12-52) in non-handicap races. If we take out his 2yo runners then he is 6-12 (SR 50%) and a level stakes profit of £30.50 with his older horses (3yo and 3yo+) in non-handicap races.

Finally, David Simcock does not send many runners to the track but in the last 5 seasons his non-handicap runners are 5-15 (SR 33.33%) and a level stakes profit of £8.98. Our top three trainers have no entries today but there are two more meetings in September so look out for their runners at the track in the next two weeks.

We have a great card at my local track Chester on Saturday and one trainer I want on-side is Andrew Balding. In the last 5 seasons he is 24-101 (SR 24%) and shows a healthy level stakes profit of £51.13. This season alone he is 8-18 (SR 44%) at the Roodee for a profit of £25.38. Balding and jockey Oisin Murphy have formed a tremendous partnership at the course in 2014, combining for 6 wins from 12 rides and a profit of £21.38. Andrew Balding has the following horses entered at Chester tomorrow:

2.20 Dungannon (5f handicap)
3.30 Whiplash Willie 1m 5f
4.40 Cosmic Ray (7f maiden)

Chester has the biggest draw bias of any course in the UK so we certainly want be drawn low for all races up to 7 ½ f. We have previously highlighted the fact Franny Norton rides Chester as well as anybody and he has a good book of rides on Saturday. They are B Fifty Two (2.20pm), Heavy Metal (2.55pm), Special Meaning (3.30pm), Enlace (4.05pm) and Sea Silk (4.40pm). B Fifty Two and Heavy Metal both look to have a decent chance which would be enhanced further by a nice, low draw.

On a final word, betting on trainer stats is a long term strategy that takes time and patience to reap the rewards. For example we highlighted William Haggas as a trainer to follow at York back in July. At the time of writing he had sent 11 runners to the track in 2014 and all 11 had lost. The following day he sent out two winners @4/1 and 9/2 and followed that up with 3 winners at the Ebor festival @12/1, 20/1 and 8/1.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

5.10 Salisbury Lady Crossmar 11/4

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