Tag Archives: level stake

Under The Radar

There's a very interesting article in this months On Course Profits magazine which is well worth a read.

Our own Friday contributor Nick Hardman looks at how we can make profits from trainers outside of the top stables.

One of the trainers Nick recommends following is Harry Fry.

Mr Fry has only been training in his own right since 2012 and since then he has had 250 runners, with 71 of those winning.

His level stake profit from betting all runners is a very respectable 99.16 points profit. That's at industry SP.

So since he started out you could have backed every horse that left his yard and made a whopping 39% return on investment.

In the article Nick tells us which races to avoid to bump that up to a 99% ROI.

He also investigates the performance and finds winning angles for John Quinn, Malcolm Jefferson, James Ewart, Warren Greatrex and Gordon Elliott.

If you've got an Ipad, Iphone or an Android device you can read the whole magazine for free.

For Apple Ipad and Iphone Click Here

For Android Click Here

Today's Selection

2.20 Lingfield Beach Bar – win bet – 15/8 Boylesports

Sire Systems

Back in February this year I loaded some system rules into Horse Race Base around the sire Dom Alco (FR)*.

Basically the system rules were just to bet the 5 to 8 year old progeny of this sire when running over distances of 2 mile 6 furlongs to 3 mile 1 furlong.

A simple little system to capture the runners of a sire who is starting to have more runners and whose runners seem to be outperforming the market over recent years.

Here are the returns since I created the system…

Runs = 21
Wins = 5
Strike Rate = 23.8%
Profit 1 point level stakes at iSP = 18.25
ROI at iSP = 86.9%

There could probably be more rules added to this to increase the strike rate, but there isn't a huge amount of data to work with.

Anyway the reason I mention this today is because the system has a qualifier and I'm going to have a little each way bet on it…

Today's Selection

3.40 Exeter Sixty Something – eachway bet – 15/2 Bet 365

* Of course with the death of Dom Alco in 2010 this is only a short term angle 🙁

Musselburgh Racing Tips

Today we have our regular column from Nick Hardman of Betting School Insiders who has pointed us at some big priced winners since he started contributing.

Take note of today's wisdom…

http://dailypunt.com/betinsiders

Not long ago we highlighted William Haggas as a trainer to follow at Musselburgh.

He has had just 11 runners at the track since 2010 and 5 have won, including three of the last four.

In fact he is 1-1 in 2012, 1-1 in 2013 and 1-2 in 2014.

On Friday he has 3 horses entered up at the Scottish track:

4.30pm Enville
5.40pm Westerly
6.40pm Meeting Waters

We also highlighted the fine strike rate that Alan Swinbank has up at Musselburgh with his handicap runners over 1m to 1m 6f.

Since 2010, he has had 47 runners in 1m to 1m 6f handicaps and 12 have won giving him a strike rate of 25.53% and a level stakes profit of +20.25pts.

His string is in fine form at present and his last 7 runners at Musselburgh have finished 5113211.

He has the following entries on Friday:

7.10pm Giovanni Jack

The Betfred Sprint Cup is the feature race on Saturday at Haydock and I have looked at the profiles of the winning horses since 1997.

Horses aged 3 to 5 have won 15 of the last 17 renewals and 14 of the last 17 winners were rated 109+.

Since 1997, 13 winners arrived here on the back of a top 3 finish, 15 winners have come from the top 6 in the betting and 14 winners had previous winning form over 6f.

Interestingly, 13 of the last 17 winners had run over further than 6f.

Just one horse ticks all those boxes and that is Henry Candy’s Music Master @8/1.

Favourite Sole Power has never won over 6f, whilst Gordon Lord Byron falls down on the age stat only.

Those that tick all the boxes except for being in the top 6 in the betting are Professor @66/1, Es Que Love @20/1 and Baccarat @25/1, all of whom are available at big odds.

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