Tag Archives: Lm

Football and Racing Tips

Today we have a bet at Wolverhampton from Peter Hawkeye, a football perm form The alternative Punters Syndicate and a reminder of Nick’s selections for Champions Day.

First up is Peter Hawkeye.

We have a special offer running for Daily Punt readers who can join Hawkeye Tips for just £7.99 – Click Here http://dailypunt.com/hawkeye

I do like to look out for improving 3 year olds when they are taking on older horses at this time of the season. Tonight at Wolverhampton Ragged Robin in the 7.45 is doing just that.

He has improved no end over the summer, to some that seemed to have come to an end last time out. But that was a tough race against other 3 year olds and back getting lumps of weight tonight from the majority of the filed I expect a further resumption of improvement at 15’2.

Next up is the TAPS weekend football perm, this is one of four perms that TAPS member get every week in addition to their daily racing tips.

The TAPS offer is a totally free one month trial, click here http://dailypunt.com/taps

Top Rated ‘Best 5 Aways’
(Perm any 3 from 5 plus all 5 = 11 bets)
CHELSEA
LIVERPOOL
WOLVES
SHEFF UTD
HIBERNIAN

The best overall odds* for the ‘Best 5 Aways’ are available with…
Ladbrokes

Finally Nick from Betting Insiders yesterday suggested that if the going stays Heavy at Ascot that there may be some outsiders winning against the form book.

You can read the full write up here but to recap here are the selections.

1.45pm Whiplash Willie @10/1
2.20pm Maarek @7/1 & An Saighdiur @100/1
2.55pm Cubanita @15/2 and Madame Chiang @16/1
3.30pm Tullius @10/1
4.45pm Levitate @12/1 (Chatez @8/1 & Russian Realm 12/1 also go well on soft)

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Today Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com talks about the research he is doing into profitable trainers and jockeys.

Profitable Trainers and Jockeys

Over the last year or so I have got really interested in Jockey and Trainers.

There is always a lot of talk about following the ones that are “in form”.

One thing I have learned is that it is not easy following them but if you manage your money correctly and are prepared to follow through then they can be rewarding.

One of the “open” tests we have been running at the Grey Horse Bot web site for the last 5 months is 16 jockeys to follow on the flat (grass only).

For me this system shows quite clearly how “interesting” it can be to follow Jockeys.

I have to admit I didn’t do too much work on this system I just took the top 16 jockeys that had over 200 runs (in our database at the time) and had made at least 10 points profit and had a strike rate of over 10%

So far this season (2014) combined:

3626 Selection


484 Wins


13.35 % Strike rate


277.97 points profit (at BSP -5%)


AWO 7.44


ROI 7.67%

When you look at statistics from a system there are always one or two figures that can give you an understanding to how hard it can be to follow a system.

13.35% strike rate normally means some long losing runs.


ROI 7.67 also points to a lot of work to earn those 277 points.

Of course with a bit more work and study we could have probably cut out some of the races and maybe even some of the Jockey could have been dropped.

But it does show that they can be very profitable even if they can be hard work to follow.

With the jump season upon us it’s a good time to look at some other statistics.

If we take Jockeys running on Handicap Hurdles with at least 100 runs (over the last two years).

Even the best only manage an average strike rate of around 16 to 18%.

You can find higher strike rates on jockeys with less runs so it is always worth looking for Jockeys that maybe only pick certain races to run in or new ones that appear to have started well.

This figure alone should tell you that you need to see if any jockey you want to follow does better in certain types of races of with specific trainers.

Trainers (less runs) do not fare much better on overall strike rate with the average being pretty similar to Jockeys.

The really interesting statistic is Jockeys and Trainers.

There is no doubt that there are pairings that are very successful like A P McCoy and Jim Best.

Strike rate on many of these are as high as 50% (over the last 2 years) and many are in the 30 to 40% range.

Some of these pairings can be very profitable especially some on the less well known ones.

So if you don’t like the idea of following Jockeys or Trainers on their own because of the low strike rate then the answer could be Jockey and Trainer pairs.

Check out open testing in the Article section of the Grey Horse Bot web site.

Malcolm Pett

Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today’s Selection

4.00 Ludlow The Bear Trap – win bet – 4/1 Sky Bet

Strike Rate Vs Odds

Today we have a guest post from Malcolm Pett of http://greyhorsebot.com

As you are probably well aware making money from gambling is about 2 things…
Strike rate and Average winning odds.

As strike rate goes up average winning odds can come down.

You tend to end up with two choices.

Low strike rate but high odds winners. This probably represents the real value end of the scale where you are picking runners that most people think have very little chance of winning.

Most of the time they are correct but every so often one comes in…

And normally at a very good price.

The strike rate of these systems is generally between 10 and 20%.

If you run a system like this then it’s probably better to use Betfair because the odds on outsiders can often be far better than you will find at the bookies.

Look out for long losing runs because these normally spell disaster for the un-aware punter.

Then we have the high strike rate but low odds end of the spectrum.

Here you are likely to be on the first or second favourite and value is going to be a real issue.

Strike rate should be in the high 30’s but even better if you can get to 40% or more.

Keeping an eye on your average winning odds is going to be critical and you will probably have to watch the exchanges and the bookies or even use a BOG bookie to get the best prices.

Your job here will probably be to match or beat SP as often as you can.

The perfect scenario would be somewhere in between the two but it is unlikely you will find one system that will have a reasonable strike rate with value bets.

Probably the best way to achieve this would be to use “Nano” systems.

On their own these types of systems have very few selections but tend to have strike rates of 20% or more.

Combining a number of them together means you have a better chance of getting a reasonable strike rate and achieving value.

It does mean you have more systems to follow but the long term profit could be worth the effort.

Over at the Grey Horse Bot website we test all these ideas.

At the moment we have a couple of tests looking to achieve strike rates of 40% and 50%.

As already discussed you will find the prices on the winners can be quite short but it can be surprising when you get the odd higher priced winner.

We are also running long term tests on system that have a much lower strike rate.
And you can see very clearly from the results that these types of systems have long losing runs and often only get into profit because of big priced winning selections.

When you decide on what type of system(s) to follow you have to ask yourself can you take the losing runs or are you prepared to look for the best price.

Otherwise a bunch of “Nano” systems may be the best thing for you.

Thank you as always for reading I really appreciate it.

Malcolm

Malcom Pett is the creator of the Grey Horse Bot http://greyhorsebot.com

Today’s Selection

6.45 Kempton Gibeon – win bet – 7/2 Bet 365

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