Tag Archives: long way

Nick Hardman Free Tips

A bright Friday morning brings with it the joy of six tips from the excellent Nick Hardman of the Betting School Insiders Club

We have some decent racing today with the meetings at Doncaster and Huntingdon standing out by some way. I have gone through the cards and picked out some horses with strong chances as well as picking out a couple of bigger priced each-way runners.

John Ferguson is 4-11 with his hurdlers at Doncaster in non-handicap races in the last 3 years for a level stakes profit of £9.29. He runs Buckwheat in the novice hurdle race at 1.05pm and champ AP McCoy is booked to ride.

Nicky Henderson’s Days Of Heaven rates a big danger after showing much improved form in a first time hood when scoring at Ludlow (hood fitted again here). With that in mind there are options for the forecast with these two likely to be a lot better than the rest.

Steel Summit’s winning sequence must come to an end at some point but the manner of his latest victory and the fact he is 10lbs well-in at the weights make him one of the strongest bets on the card in the 2.50pm.

Nicky Henderson has a good chance of taking the final race on the Doncaster card with Clondaw Banker in the maiden hurdle. His second behind Jolly’s Cracked it at Ascot back in November is smart form and he ran that same rival to within a length next time out. A reproduction of either of those efforts should be enough to win this.

It’s not often a horse with form figures 8696 would interest me but you should always put those figures into the context of the race the horse is running in.

In this case the race is a novice handicap hurdle and a quick look at the rest of the runners reveal they too have form figures that look like the numbers round from Countdown.

The horse in question is Haleo and he runs in the 1.40pm today at Doncaster.

What drew my eye to him originally is that he is rated 97 in a race where the top rated horses are rated 99.

However, he gets a hefty 13lbs weight-for-age allowance from those two horses.

He ran well for a long way on his last start before fading two from home to finish 6th, beaten 10 lengths in total. He is the 20/1 outsider of the field here but I think that allowance will see him finish closer than market expectations.

Over at Huntingdon we have a similar scenario in the 4.05pm handicap hurdle that closes the card. Cyclop is joint-top rated with Harry Hunt on an official rating of 120.

However, the 4yo Cyclop gets 11lbs from his 8yo rival. Also in his favour is the booking of Sam Twiston-Davies and he also has a C&D win to his name. Up 6lbs for that latest win he might still have a bit of improvement in him.

The best race on the Huntingdon card is the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Qualifier and top rated Aubusson is sure to prove popular dropping back into a handicap.

His latest effort saw him finish 3rd in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle. Prior to that, he won the Grade 3 Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock to earn his current rating of 153.

He has to give 11lbs away here although Lizzie Kelly’s claim will off-set 7lbs of that.

However, this is a hot race with David Pipe’s Knight Of Noir also holding strong claims along with Dolatulo and Zeroshadesofgrey.

But the one really interesting runner is Ely Brown. He defied an absence of 198 days to win a Pertemps Qualifier at Ascot in 2012 off a mark of 125 and went on to finish 6th in the Pertemps Final at the Cheltenham festival.

He defied an absence of 206 days to win the same Qualifier again in 2013 off a mark of 135 before being sent novice chasing where he won a Grade 2 on his second start.

He has not been seen in almost a year but it is interesting he goes back over hurdles and is racing here off a mark of 139.

Charlie Deutsch takes off 5lbs so that puts Ely Brown 1lb below his last winning hurdles mark.

He has won first time out in the last 2 seasons. This would be some training feat were he to take this and it will be interesting to see how he goes.

The negatives are that he is returning from injury (as opposed to a seasonal break) and word is he is being aimed at a tilt at the Grand National so this may just be a pipe-opener.

That said you often see Grand National horses running at the Cheltenham festival in the Pertemps Final.

My interest is perked just enough to have a little each-way @12/1.

Doncaster 1.05pm Buckwheat tweet this tip
Doncaster 1.40pm Haleo @20/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Doncaster 2.50pm Steel Summit @6/4 tweet this tip
Doncaster 3.50pm Clondaw Banker tweet this tip
Huntingdon 3.05pm Ely Brown @12/1 (e/w) tweet this tip
Huntingdon 4.05pm Cyclop @9/2 tweet this tip

Racing Consultants Free Tips

Today we are able to share a bit of the expertise available to Betting Insiders club members.

The analysis and selections come from David Massey and Rory Delargey.

Two guys that you will no doubt of heard of if you listen to any of the bookmaker/timeform radio channels.

Below you will find their selections for today’s racing along with their reasoning and analysis for each bet.

This information is posted in the Betting Insiders Club members only forum where Rory and David are currently providing daily analysis and selections to all Betting Insiders members.

Today’s Selections:

1pt e/w Silver Roque 4.20 Perth @ 11-1 (general)
0.5 pts e/w Apache Glory 4.00 Beverley @ 12-1 (general)
0.5 pts e/w double

Silver Roque looks a very fair price for what, at first glance, looks quite an open handicap at Perth but a few of these have been disappointing this year and one or two are probably running at the wrong trip too. The key to Silver Roque is simple – he goes particularly well after a break, with his last three wins all coming after breaks of 4 months or more. His last win, over Tahiti Pearl, may only have been at Sedgefield but he was hugely impressive, having the race won a long way out, and travelling strongly throughout. Add in the recent rain that has fallen at the track and the fact his trainer is back amongst the winners and the morning price looks a decent one.

Apache Glory is more speculative but there are good reasons for thinking he’s overpriced. Genius Boy will go off favourite here, and whilst it would be wrong to say he’s a false favourite as he was punted off the boards for his debut at Wolverhampton and raced throughout like he knew his job, and clearly there will be more to come, but the form as it stands is ordinary and Beverley is very much a specialist track. But his presence will mean others go off overpriced (Maybeme was also looked at as a possible e/w selection too, he could go off a 33s chance if the favourite gets punted in again) but at the morning prices Apache Glory is the one that makes the most appeal.

Winner of this race last year, this has clearly been the target again, and although he is 4lb higher than his victory last year he has also run well here in a better race from 4lb higher than this mark, so he’s handicapped to win again.

Coral Football Jackpot 950,000/1

Before we get into this weeks football review I just wanted to let you know that the Coral Football Jackpot is sitting at £950,000 and may well hit the million pound mark this weekend.

All you have to do to win this is correctly predict the result of 15 matches, the cost of entry is £1 – Click Here to Enter.

Weekend Football Preview

Unusually for top club football in England this weekend we see a combination of both FA Cup and Premier League football.

With only eight clubs left in the FA Cup we’re very firmly getting into the business end of the competition and if results fall a certain way then it could well turn out to be another year of the underdog.

Last season we witnessed Wigan managed by the likeable Spaniard Roberto Martinez walk away victorious after a 1-0 win over Manchester City. Funnily enough both sides are lining up against each other once more – this time in the quarter finals.

Wigan are now a Championship side but they will still fancy their chances in a one off encounter and can point to last years final as a motivation to progress in the Cup. Of course the smart money will all be on City but you just never know.

Martinez and Wigan parted company after their historic win last season but his love for the Cup remains strong and his new side Everton are in the last eight. They face a tricky away tie at this seasons surprise side Arsenal. Arsene Wenger will be only too aware that it has been far too many years since his side picked up any silverware and this could turn out to be his best chance at achieving that this season.

I expect him to field a strong team and instruct his gunners to go out onto the pitch with all guns blazing. If the Toffeemen can withstand the assault in the first half then they may hold out for a draw or even sneak a win in the latter parts of the game.

But for me I think the determination and desire of not only the Arsenal players but also all their fans cheering them on will spur them onto a place in the semi finals. I expect the gunners to win by 2 clear goals.

The remaining ties pit some of the lesser fancied sides left in the competition and they will be delighted to see that their chances of reaching a Wembley final have been improved enormously after watching the demise of top sides such as Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool in previous rounds. It’s League 1 plays Championship in the Sheffield United and Charlton match up.

After an horrendous start to the season the Blades have finally woken up and have in the past eight matches put all to the sword with eight straight wins. This has not only propelled them up their table but also seen them march into the quarter finals of the Cup. It’s a fair bet that none of their current fans were around to witness their last victory in the FA Cup when they defeated Cardiff 1-0 in the Final of 1925.

With so few clubs left in the hat there is now a very real chance of emulating that – they can but dream. Charlton have also struggled with their league campaign this season and will like United view this as a great chance to make their mark on World football. Wouldn’t it be great to see one of these two play in Europe next season?

The last tie sees Premier League teams who may be more focussed on retaining their status in the top division than concentrating on the romance of the Cup, Hull and Sunderland. As Wigan showed last year it is possible to progress in the Cup whilst struggling at the foot of the Premier League but as history shows they ultimately succumbed to relegation.

It could be that their Chairmen are secretly harbouring thoughts that it may not be a bad thing to exit the competition at this stage. After all sadly for history the money is all in retaining your place in the top league and not chasing glory. Sunderland are fresh from their valiant loss last weekend against Manchester City in the Capital 1 Cup Final at Wembley and now they have a taste for the high life they may be more inspired to repeat that excellent experience.

However, with Steve Bruce at the helm of Hull a man who has enjoyed huge success with the FA Cup in his time with Manchester United working his magic on his Tigers they could take advantage of playing at home and claw their way into the last four. Personally I hope that the Tigers along with ex Stevenage winger the “White Pele” George Boyd make it through.

Away from the FA Cup and back in the Premier League current leaders Chelsea will be hoping to take full advantage of being the only top four side to play this weekend for points. They play Tottenham in what could prove to be a tricky game.

Tottenham’s form is very much hit and miss at the moment but they could spring a surprise and hold the blues to a draw, I just can’t see them taking all three points away from Stamford Bridge. With this seasons title chase being so very tight that could be two very important points dropped for Chelsea. Elsewhere, Manchester United simply must beat West Bromwich Albion if they are to stand any chance of finishing in the top four and getting into the Champions League.

They are now 12 points adrift of that fourth spot and if they drop many more points at this stage of the season they will surely leave themselves with far too much to do as qualification draws to a close.

To not qualify for the Champions League will be a total disaster for the Red Devils and could lead to a huge overhaul of the club in the summer. If the players realise this now then it may inspire them to play like we all know they can but at the moment they seem just a tad lack lustre in their approach. I can see the Baggies bagging all three points tomorrow.

It’s a real relegation six pointer in deepest Wales as Cardiff play Fulham. Both clubs are playing poorly and prop up the league as they start to fall away from the other clubs around them.

This is a must win game but who will come away with the points? The loser could well be sealing their own fate this weekend. I know there’s still a long way to go but if you fall six or seven points away from safety with only nine games to go then it would take a herculean effort to drag yourself away from the bottom three.

The last two games feature sides that could easily be facing relegation woes come the end of the season and will be mightily relived if they pick up three points tomorrow. Crystal Palace take on a Southampton side who have done enough in the early part of the season to retain their status for another year. With this in mind I think that the Eagles will have more desire about them and emerge with a win.

Norwich and Stoke are in a similar position in the nether regions of the table. Both will view this game as one they can and should win. Thirty seven points was enough to see a side safe last season and if Stoke win tomorrow then they will be on thirty three points.

With nine matches left they may well view a win against a fellow struggler as job done for the season. Both managers will be keen to impress upon their players the importance of wins against sides that are viewed as their contemporaries.

Top Tips

My double tip for this week features an obvious win for Manchester City (best odds of 1/6) and a more risky victory for a Sheffield United side playing a team one division higher in Charlton Athletic (at 13/10).

City are a side that just don’t know how to lose at the moment and United’s eight wins on the bounce means their confidence will be sky high.

Racing Selection

Sandown 3.40 Spencer Lea – win bet – 3/1 Bet 365

Thank You Coral – Triumph Selection

Don’t you just love to bet when you can have your money back if you lose?

We are going to look at the first race again today and use that Coral offer to have a risk free bet and to help us we are going to turn to one of my favourite tipsters, Mark Foley.

Mark has 5 selections at the Festival today, including some juicy big priced shots. You can get access to all of his selections for the final day as well as all his Trainer Trends selections until the end of March for just £14.99 – Click Here.

This will be the last chance to get access to Mark’s expertise for 6 weeks at this bargain price. Click Here

So onto the Triumph Hurdle and over to Mark…

FRIDAY 15 MARCH 1.30 – JCB TRIUMPH HURDLE – GRADE 1 – 2M 1F.

A REASONABLE STATS RACE. Selection – Rolling Star

The introduction of the Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap in 2005 has had an impact on this race, 2011 winner Zarkandar became the first horse to win it after just one run over hurdles, and furthermore three of the last five winners had run no more than twice over hurdles.

Whereas this race used to be a bookies benefit, it has been far more reliable since the introduction of the Fred Winter, up until last year the last seven winners had all came from the first four in the betting.

Countrywide Flame was a real stat buster last year, as all but 2 of the last 18 winners had won LTO, as did the 2nd and 3rd last year and the first 3 home the year before. All but one of the last seven winners were all rated 138.

Look to the flat for the winner; just one of the last fifteen winners was rated lower than 80 on the flat and the last 14 Triumph winners also ran over at least 12f on the flat and that’s important in what is essentially a test of stamina for a four-year-old.

Nicky Henderson has won 2 of the last 4 renewals Barry Geraghty was aboard both of his winners to take his Triumph tally to three.

Willie Mullins and Alan King also have a good recent record in the race, although only 5 Irish trained horses have made the frame in the last 8 years and the last Irish trained winner was Scholardy in 2002.

Three of the last four winners were French imports including Zaynar whose 55 days break between winning his final prep race and the Triumph is the longest since Duke of Monmouth defied a 78-day absence back in 1992.

All but 2 of the last 21 runners had their final prep run in February and all but one of the last eight winners did not make their hurdling debut until at least December; 4 of those did not race over hurdles until at least January (last year’s winner debuted in November). Four of the last nine winners weren’t seen until January, with two of the last three Triumph winners being triumphant in the Adonis, a race that has produced 5 of the last 13 winners of the Triumph, along with Supreme Novices winner Binocular.

The roll call of Adonis winners is impressive; Zarkander, Binocular, Punjabi, Trouble at Bay and Well Chief since 2003 alone.

First 4 in the betting 6/6
Raced LTO in February 18/20
Won LTO 16/19
Rated 80 on the flat 14/15
Raced over at least 12f on flat 14/15

The Irish believe they have the ammunition to provide their strongest challenge for years in the shape of Our Conor, who they believe can give them their first win since 2002 and only their 2nd win in the past 15 years. However the fact that only 5 Irish runners have even made the frame in the last 8 renewals would suggest that English juvenile form is a lot stronger than over the sea and although Our Conor looked very impressive in beating Diakali, his jumping left a lot to be desired.

Our Connor (Rated 145) has had 3 runs over timber and debuted in November. All 3 runs were on Soft or Heavy and he never ran further than 9f on the flat and his profile certainly doesn’t fit that of a recent winner. He looked impressive in beating Diakali.

Diakali: Rated 140 Beaten by Our Conor. Raced over 12f on the flat, 3 runs debuted in November.

Far West: (Rated 145) Never raced on Flat all 4 wins on Soft and Heavy.

Irish Saint: Won the Adonis beating Vasco De Roncary, the front two a long way clear. However, Irish Saint was beaten by Rolling Star (Rated 149, Raced over 15f on flat) a horse who was making his British debut, the 2 of them a long way clear. Given the fact that Rolling Star beat the Adonis winner on debut and is trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times) I have to side with Rolling Star, especially with more rain forecast.

Today’s Selection courtesy of Trainer Trends

Cheltenham 1.30 Rolling Star – Win Bet – 11/4 Coral (Money Back bet token if it loses)

* There are better prices available on this selection this morning, notably 7/2 Blue Square, Coral are best odds guaranteed so essentially you are getting a free bet at 11/4 or starting price if it’s bigger

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