Tag Archives: loser

Nico de Boinville

Mr Nico de Boinville!

There's a lot of interesting articles online about Nico de Boinville, how he came from a privileged background, about the alternate careers he could have had, acting, city banker etc.

But none of that is of much interest to us.

What is of interest though is that Nico de Boinville makes a level stakes profit at industry starting prices if you bet all his mounts to win.

At least he has over the last three years.

The profit is getting a little tighter now because he's had some high profile wins and his ability is better known by the betting public.

His day job, as it were, is with Nicky Henderson and that's where most of his profit has come from with 70 rides since January 2013 and 21 wins for a 44% ROI.

But he has had more outside rides than he has rides for Nicky H so we'll look at all rides in the last two years to see where he's done best.

First up he's an SP loser over the big obstacles but a big winner over hurdles.

It would seem that he is over bet in his Chases, I don't know why that would be because his strike rate is the same but the ROI for Chases is minus 33% and for Hurdles is plus 66%.

The data is scant, but looking at what we have I'd tend towards dropping big field races and so I'm looking at under 14 runners.

The dataset is getting small now with just over 100 runs in the last to years, so I'm going to leave it at that.

We may be a little late to the Nico de Boinville party but I still think this is a jockey we should be following.

And in the past two years if we had backed all his rides over hurdles in fields of less than 14 we would have had the following results…

Runs = 118
Wins = 25
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit at iSP = 118.96
ROI = 100%

Today's Selection

12.25 Southwell – Best Tamayuz – win bet 2/1 Bet 365

Please follow and like us:

National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

Please follow and like us:

September Trainers

I'm just catching up with my Racing Ahead magazine (available in all good newsagents).

One of the features I like to keep an eye on is the jockeys and trainers performance tables for the upcoming month.

This month the trainer table tells me that the top three trainers in September since 2003 are…

Twiston Davies, N 29% strike rate
Nicholls, P 26% strike rate
Henderson N 26% strike rate

The first interesting thing about this top 3, is that they are all National Hunt trainers and we're not in the main National Hunt season.

The second thing is the number of bets, over the 10 years…

Twiston Davies, N 253 runners
Nicholls, P 47 runners
Henderson N 50 runners

and finally the profit to £1 level stakes…

Twiston Davies, N £70.21 profit
Nicholls, P £5.69 loss
Henderson N £13.08 profit

There are many other profitable trainers in the list and we'll look closer at them another day, but for now let's keep an eye on Nigel Twiston Davies runners this month.

He has nothing today, but 3 entries tomorrow.

Today's Selection

Goodwood 4.40 Special Fighter – win bet – 6/1 Bet 365

Please follow and like us:

Horse Racing Staking Plans

I read an interesting article recently about why horse racing staking plans don't help when backing horses.

Basically the premise was that if you are backing then you are betting more losers than winners and if you have any type of increasing stakes plan then you will be increasing stakes on losers also and so you will lose more. Or at least your return on investment will go down.

But that got me thinking, because if we are betting odds on shots then we will have more winners than losers, so that means if we increase stakes then we will be staking more on winners than losers. Because there are more of them.

This reminded me of the Odds On Trainer and Odds On Jockey systems we created back in May of this year.

Both of these systems are in profit, but at Starting Prices it is a very modest profit.

Here are the numbers since we created the system

Odds On Trainers = 3.43 points from 108 bets with a 60.19% strike rate
Odds On Jockeys = 3.35 points from 85 bets with a 63.53% strike rate

To be honest I tend to agree with the article and don't like any form of increasing stakes staking plan, but I think a simple percent of bank plan would go well with these strike rates.

If we revisit my article from earlier in the month about longest losing runs we can calculate that we can expect a longest losing run of about 9 with a 60% strike rate from 100 bets.

So I think a 5% of bank staking plan would work well as it allows for 20 losers in a row.

I applied this plan to the Odds On Trainers system and it made a profit of £7.13 from a £100 bank 🙁 level £5 stakes would have made £17.15.

So I did the same with the Odds On Jockeys system and got similar results, using 5% of the bank made a profit of £10.14, but level £5 stakes produced £16.75.

So what's the point here, I think it's just that beware of anything promising riches from a system or tips that use a particular staking plan.

I'm sure I could come up with a staking plan that would make these selections more profitable, but it would probably only work on that particular sequence.

Feel free to discuss this in the comments and I'll investigate any interesting points raised when I get back from my hols.

Today's Selection courtesy of http://bookiesenemyno1.com

7.50 Wolverhampton Old Fashion 11/4

Please follow and like us:
Facebook
Twitter
RSS
Follow by Email
Google+
https://dailypunt.com/tag/loser">

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close