Tag Archives: losing run

SAW 9 Winners

In last week’s post I told you about this new “open” test we have been doing over at the Grey Horse Bot website.

Since then we have had 9 winners and gained about 6 points if we took all the selections.
The test is also to see if it is more profitable to “stop at a winner” rather than just keep betting on every selection.

This is an interactive test based around one of our in house ratings and the morning and midday Betfair prices.

We are calling it “interactive” because you can choose the ratings figure to base the selections around.

I choose 220 and so far this month it has been far better to bet on every selection than it is to SAW.

That may not be true of every figure which is why we wanted people to experiment.

These are low priced and often (but not always) favourites.

Using 220 is giving an overall strike rate of 52.26% and an average price of 1.34.

We are doing a little better this month with an average strike rate of 56.52 but our average price is a little lower at 1.31.

270 is a good figure to go for if you want a better strike rate although 350 or above is better but it is hard to gauge how accurate they are because the amount of selections available in the results is quite low.

So far anything under 190 hasn’t performed very well this month unless you switch to SAW and use a maximum daily loss strategy of 3.

A loss strategy is important for SAW otherwise you can wipe out your profits very quickly on a losing run.

I know I go against the “value” idea with these types of low price test…

…But my argument is that if my average winning odds is higher than the strike rate suggest then haven’t we found value?

Ok maybe a little “tongue in cheek” and it is quite early days as far as this test is concerned.

If you would like to take part then pop over to the Grey Horse Bot web site.

http://greyhorsebot.com

Thanks

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

16:00:00 Newbury Might Bite – win bet – 13/8 Sporting Bet

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400 Points a Year System

Today we have our regular Wednesday column from Malcolm Pett (http://greyhorsebot.com)

We do a lot of “open” testing at the Grey Horse Bot web site sometimes just to see how a particular idea will work out (high strike rate favourites) and sometimes to test a new system idea that looks like it could work.

Although it’s nice to see a profit from the testing sometimes the goal is just to see if a system is performing as expected.

As you know not every system will make a profit every month so a trial period may not be profitable but if the system performs as it has in the past then that is a good sign.

We started testing “Elision” back at the end of August.

This was planned as a 3 month test just to see if the ratings system we were using to help find the selections did actually continue to work as expected.

Elision is a Handicap Hurdle system and although the ratings picked the selections we added in a few other filters to help whittle down the field…

…Although because of the ratings we can still end up with more than one selection in a race.

The test has been quite revealing which you can see if you study the results page.

We have recently started to increase the amount of statistical information we supply on our results and have now added…

Longest Losing run
Predicted Longest losing Run.
Highest Bank draw down.

These along with the month by month and day by day results and the visual graph give you a good understanding of how the system is performing.

Another thing we give our customers from time to time is a report about the test which includes information about how we feel the system had performed and there is also one of these available on the results page.

I am not sure if Elision will appeal to everyone. But the fact that it made over 500 points last year and has still managed over 400 points this year should tempt you to at least have a look.

You can get all this information here.


http://greyhorsebot.com/elision

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm
The Grey Horse Bot.

Today's Selection

Kempton 6.50 Jelly Fish – eachway bet – 8/1 Sporting Bet

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Automated Betting

Today we have a new article from Malcolm Pett the creator of the Grey Horse Bot.

To find out more about the GreyHorse Bot visit Malcolm website here http://greyhorsebot.com
—-
Knowing when to say enough is enough…

One of the reasons I originally created the Grey Horse Bot is that it allowed me to automatically stop betting.

And it also stopped me chasing loses.

I started in the early days with greyhound racing (that’s where the “Grey” comes from) and I followed a “Stop at a winner” system.

The problem I had was that even after that first win I couldn’t help myself starting again.

There were so many Greyhound races everyday that if I won early, it was just too tempting not to try again.

Of course you know what happened next…

…I couldn’t get a winner.

This led to the second problem of not knowing when to cut my losses.

Creating the Grey Horse Bot allowed me to “set and forget” knowing full well the bot would either stop as soon as it got a winner or if I hit my stop loss.

The other problem with Greyhound racing is that Bags races happen every 10 minutes and it is so easy to miss a race when the phone rang or you start chatting to someone.

Even reading an email can be enough to take your attention away from the racing just long enough to miss a race.

Having the Grey Horse Bot do everything for me just made life a lot easier.
The next step was to run the bot on a VPS or server that was permanently attached to the internet at all times.

This meant I didn’t even have to think about the bot, day to day.
Our longest running test was over 6 month’s non-stop. It would have been longer except the server had to be reset for an important update.

Testing is a very important part of my day to day betting activity and although I am a great believer in “paper” testing and would suggest you always do this…
(The Grey Horse Bot does paper test as well.)

…It’s not until you actually bet live when you find out if the selections your following are going to produce a profit.

I think this is where automated betting comes into its own.

Having the ability to set aside part of your bank just for these selections and set a stake that is smaller than you would normally have to use, all helps in the testing process.

Here is an example.

In last week’s article I introduced a new test for a simple system I came up with using 2nd ranked runners based on the BSP early morning prices.

Here is the article.
https://dailypunt.com/one-winner-per-day/

So I set up a Grey Horse Bot on one of our servers and set aside a £10 bank for the test.

I like to use a % of bank as my start test stake.

This may not work well with all systems but I find it a good place to start.
And if the test goes well then your stake should naturally increases but if not, your stake drops.

If I know the strike rate of my system I normally work out the Longest Losing Run expected statistically, add a little and use the figure as my stop loss.

If not…I normally set it at an equivalent of around 20 to 30 points.

Your have to decide what’s best for you.

Once that’s done then all I have to is click “start” and let the bot do the rest.
The Grey Horse Bot can automatically download selections based on your own criteria or using the special links that are often given to our members when we start a new test.

The link contains a live feed that the bot checks every so often and if it finds new selections it automatically adds them ready to monitor.

There is a link in the member’s area for the test from last week’s article.

I love automation and it doesn’t get any better than this.

But best of all I no longer have to worry about missing races or stopping when I should, it is all done automatically.

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm


The Grey Horse Bot

http://greyhorsebot.com

Today's Selection

3:00 Bangor Clondaw Kaempfer – eachway bet 15/2 Bet Victor

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National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = – 7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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