Tag Archives: mag

Multiple Bets

I've never been one for multiple bets!

I suppose the lower strike rate puts me off and the general feeling that they are mug bets, loved by bookmakers.

I've always known that if you have value bets that you multiply the value with a multiple bet, but I've never been tempted until recently.

The reason I'm into them now is because a couple of the tipping services here have been using each way Doubles and Trixies to great effect.

These guys have been hitting a good few wins and when they come off these bets pay big ūüôā

Here's an example¬†double¬†from Gary Poole's Bookies Enemy No1 service…

Epson Hill – Won 13/2

Online Alexander – Won 9/1

Paid £814.40 for £20 staked (£10 eachway double)

Here's another from Gary where they all placed second, but the bet still made a great return…

American Hope – 2nd 10/1

Gold Dream – 2nd 14/1

Don't Bother Me – 2nd 22/1

Paid £404.50 for £40 staked (£5 eachway trixie)

And it's not just Bookies Enemy that is exploiting these bets. The Racing Consultants know the power of the eachway multiple.

Here's one of theirs that was nearly massive but still won big with two wins and a place…

Slade Power – Won 4/1

Baccarat – Won 12/1

Toscanini – 2nd 11/2

Paid 497.50 for £40 staked (£5 eachway trixie)

If you want to be involved with bets like these the easiest way is to join one of these services and profit from their hard work.

But if you don't like paying for tipsters then there is an excellent article in the February On Course Profit mag that explains how to do it for yourself.

Links

The Racing Consultants

Bookies Enemy No1

On Course Profit

Today's Selection

 
14:05 Thurles Down Ace – win bet – 13/8 Betway

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Southwell Trainer System

Today I've nicked a very small part of a detailed article that Nick Hardman wrote for the On Course Profits magazine.

(Get the whole mag for free at http://oncourseprofits.com)

The article that Nick wrote teaches readers how to find their own profitable trainer trends and in this excerpt he starts by looking at the leading trainers at Southwell.

southwell top trainers

 

Keith Dalgleish has a very healthy 28% strike rate and has had a decent amount of runners. By clicking on ‚ÄúRun‚ÄĚ we can see the yearly breakdown of the trainer‚Äôs performance at the track.

Keith Dalgleish Breakdown

 

Two things are interesting here. Firstly, he has almost doubled the amount of runners he sends to the Midlands track compared to 2011 and 2012. Secondly, his performance in the last 2 seasons suggests his yard is clearly on an upward curve.

Again we use Keith Dalgleish at Southwell (AW) from 2011 to 2014 as the basic system to search for a profitable betting angle in HRB. Immediately we can see that all of his profit has come in handicap races.

Keith Dalgleish Handicap

Digging deeper into his handicap performers showed winners came from all age groups across a variety of race distances. The recommendation here would be to back all his handicap runners at Southwell.

If you haven't already subscribed to On Course Profits then I highly recommend that you do so today and lock in a free life time subscription. Click Here

Today's Selection

12:20 Newcastle Jonny Eager – win bet 3/1 Coral

 

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National Hunt Trainer Facts

This morning I'm trying to get a handle on where I want to go with a new National Hunt system, so I'm looking at some facts and figures in the hope that an idea of angle jumps out at me.

So I've logged into Horse Race Base and loaded up all Hurdle runs in 2013 and so far in 2014 and I'm looking at the trainers to see where the best returns are.

If I look at trainers that have had more than 75 runs since January 1st 2013 and sort them by strike rate, then the trainer with the highest strike rate is Willie Mullins…

Runs = 641

Wins = 186

Strike Rate = 29%

Loss at industry SP = -124.03

ROI = – 19.35 %

I'd say a strike rate of 29% from all hurdlers sent out is huge. A loss of 19.35% on turnover is a lot, and although I'm sure that can be improved by betting at Betfair SP I would imagine a lot of these were favourites and that the Betfair SP returns wouldn't be a great deal better.

Interestingly, just down the list a bit is Nicky Henderson with a 24% strike rate but only a 7% loss on turnover…

Runs = 525

Wins = 125

Strike Rate = 24%

Loss at industry SP = -36.75

ROI = Р7 %

So my next task is going to be to have a closer look at the hurdlers of these two trainers.

First off, I'm interested in how many runners Willie Mullins actually sends over to the UK and whether they perform better or worse than his Irish runners.

The answer is that only 61 came to the UK in the period and the strike rate with these 61 was 21% and the loss of turnover was 29%.

So the profit and runners will be in Ireland.

The table below shows the breakdown of the Irish runners by track, you will see there are some huge strike rates at some of the courses…

Willie Mullins Irish Course Run 2013 - 14 table

Next I looked at position in the odds market and this is interesting out of the 580 runs that Willie had in Ireland since January 1st 2013 a whopping 469 were ranked in the first four in the betting market.

How many that were not in the first four in the betting do you think went on to win?

Well according to Horse Race Base the answer is none!

In fact if we only bet Willie Mullins hurdlers that run in Ireland and are in the first three in the betting then we have a system that just edges into profit at Industry SP.

If we only look at those ridden by Paul Townend or Ruby Walsh, who take most of the rides then we have the following figures since January 1st 2013…

Runs = 331

Wins = 139

Strike Rate = 41.99 %

Profit at industry SP = 22

ROI = 6.65%

That's a great strike rate and if you can't stomach losing runs then these rules will find you bets that see you collecting regularly, but these horses are over bet, especially when Ruby is on board, so the profit isn't huge.

Today's Selection

2.40 Redcar Mixed Message – win bet – 5/6 Bet 365

 

 

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Jumping Propects 2015

Jumping ProspectsToday I'm looking at a book called Jumping Prospects that has been recommended to me.

It is written by racing stalwart John Morris.

The book is priced at £15 and was published late September and is aimed at those who like to follow trainers and also spot a few big priced winners that are under the radar.

There is comprehensive coverage of 21 Trainers along with comments on 475 of the horses in their care.

There are also ‚Äėstable eyecatchers‚Äô at the end of each interview to help you focus on those the author really likes.

Last year’s edition produced 242 winners and included winners at 40/1, 33/1, 25/1 and 20/1.

This is the 23rd edition of the book and clearly offers something that is worthwhile to many.

Here's the edited highlights of the Amazon blurb…

21 Stable Interviews with various jumps trainers including: Kim Bailey, Ali Stronge, rebecca Curtis, James Ewart, Harry Fry, Warren Greatrex, Anthony Honeyball, Nicky Henderson, Alan King, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Longsdon, Donald McCain, Paul Nicholls, Dr Richard Newland, Ben Pauling, Oliver Sherwood, Dan Skelton, Jamie Snowden, Tom Symonds, Colin Tizzard, Robert Walford.

John says: “Once again I have visited some of the major jumping stables along with other horses that might slip under the radar. The energy you pick up from my stable tour will fuel your betting tank for a long, long time!”

The Jumping Prospects book is guaranteed to uncover many winners during the autumn and winter jumps season.

When you purchase your copy of Jumping Prospects it will pay for YOUR outlay many times over, as it has the answers to future winners likely to appear during the jumps campaign.

You can obtain a copy by visiting https://www.dailypunt.com/jumpingprospects 

Today's Selection

9.10 Kempton Fiftyshadesofgrey – eachway bet – 11/2 Bet 365

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