Tag Archives: Minus

Nico de Boinville

Mr Nico de Boinville!

There's a lot of interesting articles online about Nico de Boinville, how he came from a privileged background, about the alternate careers he could have had, acting, city banker etc.

But none of that is of much interest to us.

What is of interest though is that Nico de Boinville makes a level stakes profit at industry starting prices if you bet all his mounts to win.

At least he has over the last three years.

The profit is getting a little tighter now because he's had some high profile wins and his ability is better known by the betting public.

His day job, as it were, is with Nicky Henderson and that's where most of his profit has come from with 70 rides since January 2013 and 21 wins for a 44% ROI.

But he has had more outside rides than he has rides for Nicky H so we'll look at all rides in the last two years to see where he's done best.

First up he's an SP loser over the big obstacles but a big winner over hurdles.

It would seem that he is over bet in his Chases, I don't know why that would be because his strike rate is the same but the ROI for Chases is minus 33% and for Hurdles is plus 66%.

The data is scant, but looking at what we have I'd tend towards dropping big field races and so I'm looking at under 14 runners.

The dataset is getting small now with just over 100 runs in the last to years, so I'm going to leave it at that.

We may be a little late to the Nico de Boinville party but I still think this is a jockey we should be following.

And in the past two years if we had backed all his rides over hurdles in fields of less than 14 we would have had the following results…

Runs = 118
Wins = 25
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit at iSP = 118.96
ROI = 100%

Today's Selection

12.25 Southwell – Best Tamayuz – win bet 2/1 Bet 365

Place Ratings continued…

This week Malcolm Pett continues with the development of his place ratings.

Over to Malcolm…

Last week I introduced my new place rating system which has a number of ratings that you can combine in different ways to find selections to place.

In this article I want to go into a little more detail about the ratings and introduce a further 2 ratings which may help a little more.

One of the new columns is marked “MR” which is a little cocktail of mine made up of various bits of information.

I don’t like runners with a minus (-) figure in this column and generally use it to identify the strong runners in the race.

Place Ratings

The “Rat 1” column is another strength indicator which I usually look at like this:

0 – Very weak and probably a no bet.
1 to 9 still very week but will look at it combined with other figures.
10 and above is best with into the 30’s being very strong.

I never take a “Qlf 1” selection if it is a minus (-) figure.

50 and above is better although if all the runners are less than this, I may consider the selection.

5 or above is my favourite in “Qlf 2”. I really don’t like anything under 4. A score of 7 tends to be very strong.

I never take a 0 in “Qlf 3” and 1’s are not my favourite either and I really like my runner to be top or equalled top whenever possible.

The “Rating” column is a combination of Qlf1 to Qlf 3 and can be used on its own.

A runner with a score of over 100 is certainly one that should be looked at.

The “NS” rating is another new rating and a score of 10 or better points towards an interesting selection.

These are just guides but they give you some idea of how I feel about each column.

It’s actually interesting because I love statistics but I get a lot of enjoyment using the ratings on a new day and trying to figure out which selections I may go for.

It’s so easy when looking at results to imagine you would have or you wouldn’t have used a selection….

…But it is so different when you are going through the race card in the morning and trying to make a decision on what selections to use.

I tend to stick to the top 2 or 3 ranked runners.

I know they don’t always win or place but I feel I get more success from them than I do other runners.

Although I will admit I haven’t really studied outsiders yet.

I generally look through the cards first of all to see if there are any selections that stand out.

Another method that I like to use is to score a runner based on if it has the highest or joint highest number in a column.

Again only sticking to the top ranked runners I will give 1 point for each column where they score highest or joint highest.

3 or higher is worth considering for a place where a score of 5 or 6, I may consider for a win.

Have a look yourself here.

http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=98

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

1.50 Wetherby Tiptoeaway – 7/1 Bet Victor

Tongue Tie Horse Racing System

Before I get to today's research I should mention that Ross Turner is giving away some systems today, that you might want to go and get before you read on – Click Here.

There are a number of tools available to the race horse trainer to help his charge perform at it's best.

But generally when a horse uses this extra help it is considered a negative factor and the results show this to be the case.

The overall numbers for horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time are pretty bleak.

From over 19,000 qualifiers there have been just 1200 winners and the strike rate is 6.48% and the return on investment is a minus 43%.

Horses to lay maybe?

But I guess there are two types of trainers.

Those that are clutching at straws and who will try anything to get a better performance out of their slow horse.

And those that can correctly diagnose a tongue problem and only use them when they know it will make a difference.

Tongue Tie Horse Racing System

What I've done is to create a system in Horseracebase that selects horses that are wearing a tongue tie for the first time who are trained by a trainer who historically has had a greater than 10% strike rate with first time tongue ties and have a greater than 10% ROI with the same.

And who have had more than 25 qualifiers previously.

The historic results are…

Runs = 541
Wins = 77
Strike Rate = 14.23%
Profit at iSP = 268.46
Return on Investment = 49.62%

So I don't know if this will stand up going forward, but I will track it for a few months before I decide whether to invest in the selections.

Here are the rules I have…

Tongue Tie Horse Racing  System Rules

Today's Selection

2.40 Kempton Divine Rule – eachway bet – 12/1 Bet Victor

Dutching Profits

What is dutching and why should you do it?

Dutching is simply the process of betting on more than one outcome in a market to return an equal profit whichever of your selections wins.

When might you use dutching as a profitable strategy?

There are a number of scenarios where dutching might be a useful staking approach.

The most obvious being if you have analysed an event and have narrowed it down to 2 or more possible winners and you want to cover those selections.

This might be in a horse race where you have it down to a 2 runner race or in greyhound racing where it is often hard to narrow it down to one dog.

Other more creative uses of dutching would be in markets where you want to create a better value bet than is available elsewhere.

For example in the football correct score markets.

If you want to bet on a team to win but the odds are too short, you might decide that the losing team is unlikely to score. In which case you could dutch all the other score lines to get a bigger price about your expected winning team.

So as an example you might decide that Man Utd will win tonight (this may be a bad example given recent form, but we'll go with it).

Man U are 1.25 to win IE you bet £10 and you make £2.50 profit minus commission.

But lets say you are confident that Cardiff won't score.

You could dutch the score lines of 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0 at prices of 8.4, 6.8, 8.6, 15.0.

A £10 bet on these outcomes dutched together would give a profit of £12.27 for your £10 stake.

So if you are convinced there will be no Cardiff goals and no more than 4 Man U goals you could get a price of 2.27.

This is just an example but basically dutching allows you to make your own bets by combining outcomes to give bets that aren't available at Betfair or the bookies.

By the way you can just bet Man U to win to nil, but because that price includes 5-0, 6-0 7-0 etc it is shorter at about 1.97

There is a free calculator here that will work out your stakes for you.

Dutching is a useful staking strategy to have in your bag of tricks.

Today's Selection

Taunton 3.10 Milosam – win bet – 5/2 Paddy Power, Bet Victor

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close