Tag Archives: Minus

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

Understanding Greyhound Racing Form

I've been promising for a while now that I will teach some winning greyhound strategies so today I'm going to explain how the form is recorded for the dogs. I'll then go on to share a strategy that I have used for years whenever I bet the dogs.

This is going to run over a number of days and I might spread it out a bit so as to not bore those readers not interested in the dogs, but we'll see how it goes.

So below you will see a screenshot of some greyhound racing form and below that a list of what the various items mean.

Greyhound racing form

Greyhound racing form – Click to Enlarge

[1] Starting with the easy, this is the trap that the dog will run from

[2] The dogs name & (W) indicates that this dog is a wide runner and consequently it will be allocated one of the outside traps each time it runs. You may also see (M) which indicates a middle runner and this dog will be allocated a middle trap.

[3] The best recent (Calculated) time that the greyhound has achieved along with details of the grade and the date. In this case the best time came in a trial, a trial is a qualifying race which helps the racing manager to know how to grade the dog IE what is it's ability what race should he put it in. Trials will usually have less than 6 runners, 3 in this case, and there is no betting on trials.

[4] The name of the trainer.

[5] This is the Racing Post rating for the dog. It is time based and personally I don’t pay much attention to it.

[6] A description of the animal in this case a F b which is a fawn bitch (female) a male will be indicated with a d for dog. This is followed by the name of the dogs sire (father), dam (mother) and the date whelped (Date of Birth).

[7] Date last in season. Bitches only!

[8] This is the Racing Post's tipsters comment, often vague and and can sway your judgement.

Now we get to the past form for the dog in question. Each line represents one race with the top line being the most recent.

[9] The date of the race.

[10] The track where the race was run.

[11] The distance of the race in metres.

[12] The trap number that the dog ran from on that occasion.

[13] The sectional or split time. This is the time from the traps to the winning line the first time the dog passes the line. This is useful to hep you understand the pace of the dog and whether it is likely to lead early.

[14] Position in race at the start (IE out of the traps), quarter (In a 4 bend race this will be between the 1st & 2nd bends), half and three quarter stages.

[15] Finishing position.

[16] The distance beaten by or if the winner the distance won by.

[17] The name of the winner or the second if this dog was the winner.

[18] The Racing Manager's in running comments for that run

[19] The time that the winner took to complete the race.

[20] The allowance made for the going. N = normal otherwise plus or minus in hundredths of a second EG – 40 means that the time was adjusted down by 40 hundredths of a second.

[21] The starting price of the dog.

[22] The grade of the race.

[23] The calculated time for this dog. This will be calculated from the distance the dog finished behind the winner and adjusted for the going allowance.

Now that we understand the information (form) that we have available next time we can look at how we can use that information.

Now we know how to read the card check out these posts that deal with finding a winner.

Who is the fastest to the first bend

Greyhound racing videos 

Baulking

Is it fast enough

Image courtesy of Saris0000 under Creative Commons 2.0

Nico de Boinville

Mr Nico de Boinville!

There's a lot of interesting articles online about Nico de Boinville, how he came from a privileged background, about the alternate careers he could have had, acting, city banker etc.

But none of that is of much interest to us.

What is of interest though is that Nico de Boinville makes a level stakes profit at industry starting prices if you bet all his mounts to win.

At least he has over the last three years.

The profit is getting a little tighter now because he's had some high profile wins and his ability is better known by the betting public.

His day job, as it were, is with Nicky Henderson and that's where most of his profit has come from with 70 rides since January 2013 and 21 wins for a 44% ROI.

But he has had more outside rides than he has rides for Nicky H so we'll look at all rides in the last two years to see where he's done best.

First up he's an SP loser over the big obstacles but a big winner over hurdles.

It would seem that he is over bet in his Chases, I don't know why that would be because his strike rate is the same but the ROI for Chases is minus 33% and for Hurdles is plus 66%.

The data is scant, but looking at what we have I'd tend towards dropping big field races and so I'm looking at under 14 runners.

The dataset is getting small now with just over 100 runs in the last to years, so I'm going to leave it at that.

We may be a little late to the Nico de Boinville party but I still think this is a jockey we should be following.

And in the past two years if we had backed all his rides over hurdles in fields of less than 14 we would have had the following results…

Runs = 118
Wins = 25
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit at iSP = 118.96
ROI = 100%

Today's Selection

12.25 Southwell – Best Tamayuz – win bet 2/1 Bet 365

Place Ratings continued…

This week Malcolm Pett continues with the development of his place ratings.

Over to Malcolm…

Last week I introduced my new place rating system which has a number of ratings that you can combine in different ways to find selections to place.

In this article I want to go into a little more detail about the ratings and introduce a further 2 ratings which may help a little more.

One of the new columns is marked “MR” which is a little cocktail of mine made up of various bits of information.

I don’t like runners with a minus (-) figure in this column and generally use it to identify the strong runners in the race.

Place Ratings

The “Rat 1” column is another strength indicator which I usually look at like this:

0 – Very weak and probably a no bet.
1 to 9 still very week but will look at it combined with other figures.
10 and above is best with into the 30’s being very strong.

I never take a “Qlf 1” selection if it is a minus (-) figure.

50 and above is better although if all the runners are less than this, I may consider the selection.

5 or above is my favourite in “Qlf 2”. I really don’t like anything under 4. A score of 7 tends to be very strong.

I never take a 0 in “Qlf 3” and 1’s are not my favourite either and I really like my runner to be top or equalled top whenever possible.

The “Rating” column is a combination of Qlf1 to Qlf 3 and can be used on its own.

A runner with a score of over 100 is certainly one that should be looked at.

The “NS” rating is another new rating and a score of 10 or better points towards an interesting selection.

These are just guides but they give you some idea of how I feel about each column.

It’s actually interesting because I love statistics but I get a lot of enjoyment using the ratings on a new day and trying to figure out which selections I may go for.

It’s so easy when looking at results to imagine you would have or you wouldn’t have used a selection….

…But it is so different when you are going through the race card in the morning and trying to make a decision on what selections to use.

I tend to stick to the top 2 or 3 ranked runners.

I know they don’t always win or place but I feel I get more success from them than I do other runners.

Although I will admit I haven’t really studied outsiders yet.

I generally look through the cards first of all to see if there are any selections that stand out.

Another method that I like to use is to score a runner based on if it has the highest or joint highest number in a column.

Again only sticking to the top ranked runners I will give 1 point for each column where they score highest or joint highest.

3 or higher is worth considering for a place where a score of 5 or 6, I may consider for a win.

Have a look yourself here.

http://greyhorsebot.co.uk/artview.asp?pnum=98

Thank you as always for reading I really do appreciate it.

Malcolm

The Grey Horse Bot

Today's Selection

1.50 Wetherby Tiptoeaway – 7/1 Bet Victor

Tongue Tie Horse Racing System

Before I get to today's research I should mention that Ross Turner is giving away some systems today, that you might want to go and get before you read on – Click Here.

There are a number of tools available to the race horse trainer to help his charge perform at it's best.

But generally when a horse uses this extra help it is considered a negative factor and the results show this to be the case.

The overall numbers for horses wearing a tongue tie for the first time are pretty bleak.

From over 19,000 qualifiers there have been just 1200 winners and the strike rate is 6.48% and the return on investment is a minus 43%.

Horses to lay maybe?

But I guess there are two types of trainers.

Those that are clutching at straws and who will try anything to get a better performance out of their slow horse.

And those that can correctly diagnose a tongue problem and only use them when they know it will make a difference.

Tongue Tie Horse Racing System

What I've done is to create a system in Horseracebase that selects horses that are wearing a tongue tie for the first time who are trained by a trainer who historically has had a greater than 10% strike rate with first time tongue ties and have a greater than 10% ROI with the same.

And who have had more than 25 qualifiers previously.

The historic results are…

Runs = 541
Wins = 77
Strike Rate = 14.23%
Profit at iSP = 268.46
Return on Investment = 49.62%

So I don't know if this will stand up going forward, but I will track it for a few months before I decide whether to invest in the selections.

Here are the rules I have…

Tongue Tie Horse Racing  System Rules

Today's Selection

2.40 Kempton Divine Rule – eachway bet – 12/1 Bet Victor

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