Tag Archives: mounts

Nico de Boinville

Mr Nico de Boinville!

There's a lot of interesting articles online about Nico de Boinville, how he came from a privileged background, about the alternate careers he could have had, acting, city banker etc.

But none of that is of much interest to us.

What is of interest though is that Nico de Boinville makes a level stakes profit at industry starting prices if you bet all his mounts to win.

At least he has over the last three years.

The profit is getting a little tighter now because he's had some high profile wins and his ability is better known by the betting public.

His day job, as it were, is with Nicky Henderson and that's where most of his profit has come from with 70 rides since January 2013 and 21 wins for a 44% ROI.

But he has had more outside rides than he has rides for Nicky H so we'll look at all rides in the last two years to see where he's done best.

First up he's an SP loser over the big obstacles but a big winner over hurdles.

It would seem that he is over bet in his Chases, I don't know why that would be because his strike rate is the same but the ROI for Chases is minus 33% and for Hurdles is plus 66%.

The data is scant, but looking at what we have I'd tend towards dropping big field races and so I'm looking at under 14 runners.

The dataset is getting small now with just over 100 runs in the last to years, so I'm going to leave it at that.

We may be a little late to the Nico de Boinville party but I still think this is a jockey we should be following.

And in the past two years if we had backed all his rides over hurdles in fields of less than 14 we would have had the following results…

Runs = 118
Wins = 25
Strike Rate = 21%
Profit at iSP = 118.96
ROI = 100%

Today's Selection

12.25 Southwell – Best Tamayuz – win bet 2/1 Bet 365

Long Distance Jockeys

I've just been reading an article by Josh Wright where he shares a jockey angle to profit from.

Basically he's uncovered three jockeys that do exceptionally well in races of 3 miles and longer.

…all three are clearly superb judges of pace, either winding up their mounts from the front or pouncing at the right time to take the prize. They also give their horses confidence at their fences as well as getting the firepower to go to war with.

The three jockeys are James Reveley, Paul Moloney and Paddy Brennan.

James Reveley

Rules:-
Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
September-April Inclusive
Class 2,3,4,5
20/1 or below
Results (2010-) :-

James Reveley 3 mile +

James Reveley has had a consistent record for some time in these types of races and is a superb horseman as well as a great judge of pace. His mounts should always be kept onside during main National Hunt season over these marathon trips.

Paul Moloney
Rules:-
Handicap Chases over 3 miles plus
November-April inclusive
Class 1,2,3,4
20/1 or under
Results (2010-):-

Paul Moloney 3miles +

Paul Moloney is renowned for waiting out the back on his mounts and timing his challenge perfectly. To perform 77% above market expectations says everything about his ability to win on horses that the market has not given a chance to. His rides in long distance handicap chases are always worth a second look.

Paddy Brennan

Rules:-
Handicap Chases, 3 miles to 3 miles 4 furlong inclusive.
Class 3,4,5
12/1 or under
Results (2010-) :-

Paddy Brennan

Paddy Brennan is a superb rider over 3miles-3m4f in the lower classes of racing. He is best known in recent years for his association with Tom George, however he also gets plenty of rides for Fergal O’Brien and the odd ride for other trainers. Definitely a rider who gives confidence to his mounts and who judges pace superbly. He is still underestimated by the market.

These 3 have won nearly 400 points to BFSP since the beginning of 2010 and they are showing no signs of stopping anytime soon.

Read the original article and others at http://racingtoprofit.co.uk/

Today's Selection

12:10:00 Southwell Company Secretary – win bet 15/8 Bet 365

Tony McCoy OBE

Following on from Monday's article today I'm going to look at some stats from Champion Jockey Tony McCoy.

By the way yesterdays eachway bet that placed second was from the system we created on Monday.

Ok, so backing all of Tony's mounts would as you'd expect returns a loss, but not as a big a loss as I expected at 15% of stakes lost.

If we break that down by race type we see that Hurdles perform best with an excellent 27% strike rate from all hurdle start and a loss of just 11%.

Tony McCoy by Race Type Table

At this stage of my research I was pondering where to go next and looking down the list of factors and say ‘Going'.

My first thought was that, that is a factor that depends more on the particular horse than the jockey, but then I pictured AP pumping away, driving a tired horse home and thought I bet he does better in Heavy going than other jocks. And he does.

Over the last two years backing all of McCoys Hurdle rides on Heavy going has produced a 25% ROI and a 31% strike rate.

However over the long term this strategy has been pretty much break even, so maybe something to keep in mind rather than to bet blindly.

For today I'm going to wrap up with a look at how he performs for different trainers.

My thoughts are that as I've said for previous jockeys that I would expect them to be a losing proposition for their own stable rides, just because they have to ride everything and that seems to be the case with Jonjo O Neill rides showing a loss.

The table below shows every Hurdle ride since January 1st 2013 and I've sorted it by ROI to help spot the trainers who make a profit when they book the real McCoy.

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

McCoy Hurdles by Trainer

 

Today's Selection

2:00 Ludlow Sin Bin – win bet – 4/1 Bet Victor

Hawkeye Amateur Jockey System

Hawkeye TipsToday I want to update you on the system we created as a result of the article by Peter Hawkeye.

By the way Hawkeye Tips is making great profits with 32.4 points profit so far in June which follows on from 37 points in May.

Together since the Flat season kicked off proper with the Guineas meeting that's 69.4 points profit all made from just 28 bets, which is a whopping 247% return on investment.

You can join Hawkeye Tips here http://hawkeyetips.com

So the system.

Last time we wrote about this we came up with…

Bet all horses running on the Flat when ridden by one of these amateur jockeys.

Bethell, Miss H
Birkett, Mr R
Brotherton, Miss S
Collington, Mr P
Foley, Miss A
Hutchinson, Miss A L
Mills, Miss Alice
Walton, Miss C

Since Peter first alerted to this there have been just four bets. Two on the day that we published the article, both in the same race and they gave a 3/1 winner.

Then five days later, again two in the same race giving a 7/2 winner.

As a result of our first system we had two interesting comments.

One said surely Simon Walker should be included?

I'm going to say no! The results show that Simon was profitable in 2012, but not 2011 or 2013. He has a good strike rate but I guess his mounts are just over bet.

The second gave us some rules to improve the system. These were…

No. of Runners = Between 8 And 15

I don't think this rule is necessary, and the less rules the better. Most of the races had between 8 and 15 runners anyway and the ones that didnt fared ok.

Race Type = Non-Handicap Handicap Handicap Maiden

Most of the races were Handicaps (96%) and those that weren't didnt make a profit.

So again keeping things simple I'm going to say Handicaps only.

Month = May, June, July, August, October

All the profit did come in these months and they are the main Flat Turf season months, only 4% of the runs fell outside the main season. We'll include this rule.

Position Odds Market Between 1 And 8

I like me a big priced winner every now and then, and there was some huge profit from the outsiders, so I'm excluding this rule.

Horse Last Race Placing 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th

Again I see profit across all last time out positions, so I'm not using this rule.

Here's what we're left with.

Amateur Jockey System

When one of these jockeys…

Bethell, Miss H
Birkett, Mr R
Brotherton, Miss S
Collington, Mr P
Foley, Miss A
Hutchinson, Miss A L
Mills, Miss Alice
Walton, Miss C

Rides on the Flat, on Turf in a Handicap between May and October then bet.

The results for the last four years are…

Runs = 353
Wins = 62
Strike Rate = 17.56%
Profit at iSP = 214.88
Return on Investment = 60.87%

This system has a runner today, there is a concern about his ability on the ground conditions, but I'm going to go with a small bet…

Today's Selection

5.25 Salisbury The Happy Hammer – eachway bet – 7/1 Bet 365

The original articles are here http://dailypunt.com/amateur-jockey-system/ and here http://dailypunt.com/amateur-jockey-system-2/

Thanks to Jim Muir and John Curtis for your comments, email me your postal address and I'll send you something from the office 😉

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